***Unofficial Confidence Check: Will We Make the NCAA Tourney 12/15/21**

[CascadeClone]

Gonna say 60%.
The noncon has some real quality wins to go with the tomato cans. This helps a lot, but you cant be garbage in conference. Still almost HAVE to be 9-9 in conference, they dont take many sub .500 conf teams.

My worry is they could still struggle thru the conference grind, just plain wear out in february, or have a key injury.

Look to the floyd number. Best case probably 7-2 at home. Find a couple wins on the road. Osu, tcu, ksu are possible.

I think they can do it but its sure no gimmie. Still, so much fun to watch and root for these guys. They have flaws but damn fun basketball again.

 

[WalkingCY]

No poll?

 

[WalkingCY]

No poll?

80%

 

[PSYclone22]

No poll?

I don't think polls allow for manual entry, I want to get specific percentages from people. I thought about it though!

 

[CyCloned]

I am around 70%. ISU has some sorta nice wins, but so far the team has had a season like Iowa Football, where it looked like there were all these good teams on the schedule and a few weeks later, not so much.

They really need to finds some stability on offense, and stay out of foul trouble. Also, they are pretty thin in a hurry if a guy or 2 gets hurt. The Baylor game will show if we are in the conversation.

 

[Urbandale2013]

50%
The first 6 conference games will tell the story. We go 3-3 in that stretch, I think we get in. But if we go 0-6 or 1-5…will be tough, but I don’t see us folding so quickly either, non-con gave us a ton of house money.

If we go 3-3 through the first 6 games we are a lock. 8-10 is in and frankly 7-11 is probably in this year. The Big 12 is absolutely loaded and the Big 10 and ACC are down. 2-4 is going to be really good and 1-5 is still decent.

 

[twincyties]

80%. Optimistic as I am, we are one injury to any of our starters away from significant problems.

I think the biggest games in early stretch is home vs. Tech and at OU. Slightly less so at home against UT. Those are the ones we’re supposed to win and we can’t afford to give those ones away if we want to win 8+ games in conference (which is what I think we need to make the tourney).

Loss against Baylor doesn’t hurt. Same with @KU. To lesser extent @Tech.

I think we need no less than 2 of the first 6.

 

[ForbinsAscynt]

NIT is a lock
Tourney I’m at 55%.
All eyes on Baylor game.

 

[allfourcy]

It would take a Fran Fade level collapse at this point

I wouldn't go that far....I think there are 'at least' 5 big 12 teams better than anyone we have played yet. Hope our home court can bring some magic during conference.

 

[Jayshellberg]

75 percent

 

[2122]

65%. I'da been around 5% six weeks ago, but then they started playing, and it was like, wow, these guys can play, and play together.

 

[twincyties]

I am excited for Baylor game and think it will be a litmus test of sorts. But also not going to shake my confidence in this team if we lose. Or even lose big. They just dismantled a good Villanova team and worked Michigan State earlier this year. They are number 1 for a reason.

I am personally far more interested in games like @OU and at home against TTU and Texas. Those are the games we need to win (much like Iowa, Creighton, Xavier, Memphis) if were going to be a tournament team and top 20 program.

point being, we could still be 10-15 team in the country and lose to #1. That’s why I don’t know it’s the best measuring stick.
A win, of course, puts the entire country in notice. a loss against 17 or 25 at home is when people start saying, “they’re a good team but way over ranked”.

 

[Pharmacy99]

45%

Wow, 45% is too generous from you.

 

[HFCS]

50/50. I want to see a couple conference games first. I feel 90% sure for NIT now. I remember Macs football team going 3-0 in non con and being excited for a bowl and then going 0-8 in conference.

With the Big 12 being the deepest conference every year by the numbers the formula for making the NIT is always very slim. Pretty much any 8-10 record is a tourney team because there are almost no "bad" opponents...any worse than 8-10 and it's hard to have the above .500 record considering 9 teams get a loss tagged on them in the tourney...unless a team has an incredible non conf record then something like 7-11/6-12 and 0-1 B12T which would possibly be an NIT team.

Not trying to jinx us, but that's kind of what it takes in a small 10 team league where 7-8 teams seem NCAA tourney worthy every year heading into conference play.

 

[Tailg8er]

I'd go 75%.

 

[cyclonehomer]

I think we make it, but we’re going to have like a 8 game stretch where we go 2-6 and people will freak out and start questioning the TJ hire again.

I'll be there leading the charge.

 

[Farnsworth]

420%

 

[cyclonehomer]

I'd say about 75%? The B12 is a grinder and all but a couple teams will be competitive almost every night. **** happens and maybe the losses of depth prior to the season catch up to the team as the season wears on.

But TJ has been extremely impressive so far and the guys on the team don't seem like they'll back down from anyone. They shoot the ball better than I anticipated heading into the season (outside of two games so far) and really get after it on defense. Anything 7-11 or better is in, I would think.

 

[allfourcy]

I'd feel alot more confident if we had a bonafide big guy that was more of a scoring threat and limits foul trouble, because the big 12 has some great athletes down low compared to some of our opponents so far. Plus, there will never be an easy game in conference to pull out a Jackson State kind of offensive night type win. So, I'll say 50%.

 

[Frak]

I'd say 50%, which is way better than I thought was possible at this point. I