Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

[StPaulCyclone]

Based on what? The problem is people think their TV deal sucks because Scott sucked and he negotiated a bad deal. No, their media deal sucks because people don’t watch their games.

The fact that their deal sucks and that they couldn’t find a partner for their network is very telling. Scott had bold plans, including raiding the B12. He failEd, up it wasn’t just his incompetence. The P12 has been in trouble for a while and has been making the least money over that time. The power brokers in the sports were so busy working to destroy the B12, that people haven’t noticed. Geography has protected and doomed them all at once.

 

[AuH2O]

Say only 30% of fans of UCLA, Cal, Stanford, and USC actually care. Thats a ton of people still, people are forgetting the population of California

Have you looked at their attendance and TV ratings? It isn’t remotely close to 30% that care. At least not enough to turn in ESPN or Fox, let alone actively seek out content and pay for it.

 

[DSM4Cy]

But back then CMC could say "come play in the Big 12". Now THEY can say that as well.

The thing people are missing is that in order for the B12 to live for another day, we HAD to expand. We might have P12 leftovers available down the road, and we also now have promoted a number of schools, sure. But we were screwed and no one would take us seriously as just the Angry 8. This was the only option available to us at this time and eliminated any G5 threat that could have been out there from the AAC.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

Have you looked at their attendance and TV ratings? It isn’t remotely close to 30% that care. At least not enough to turn in ESPN or Fox, let alone actively seek out content and pay for it.

I think their grads are luke warm and they lack tee shirt fans in the P12; with the exception of maybe UONike. Hell, just look how pro sports do in some of those markets. Enjoy the game at the Raiders‘ stadium today….in NV.

 

[isucy86]

I'm still not convinced the PAC is as weak as you all think it is. New commish, geography, etc. They are in a solid place. As long as this "alliance" exists, they are fine.

They may be in a solid place because they exist to some degree on a geographic island. But in college football money is a big measuring stick and we'll find out how solid the Pac12 is when they announce their next TV deal.

Being mostly in the Pacific time zone that serves as a positive and a negative. Its a negative because a lot of Americans who live in the Central & Eastern time zones don't stay up to watch games that kick-off 7pm PT or later.

But it also protects their schools from being picked off in realignment by SEC, ACC and Big10.

Not saying Pac12 schools won't be the target of Big10, SEC or Big12- but I think to get the coastal schools a conference would need to take 6-8 current Pac12 schools. I just don't see USC, Oregon, UCLA or Stanford wanting to play a few games a year against current Pac12 schools and then 6+ games against Southern or Midwest schools.

IMO they are fine to exist on their island as long as they get a Playoff berth.

 

[Itjustdoesn'tmatter]

I've changed my mind about the teams I want out of the PAC12.

An Arizona school, Utah and then either another Arizona or an Idaho school.

 

[cykadelic2]

They may be in a solid place because they exist to some degree on a geographic island. But in college football money is a big measuring stick and we'll find out how solid the Pac12 is when they announce their next TV deal.

Being mostly in the Pacific time zone that serves as a positive and a negative. Its a negative because a lot of Americans who live in the Central & Eastern time zones don't stay up to watch games that kick-off 7pm PT or later.

But it also protects their schools from being picked off in realignment by SEC, ACC and Big10.

Not saying Pac12 schools won't be the target of Big10, SEC or Big12- but I think to get the coastal schools a conference would need to take 6-8 current Pac12 schools. I just don't see USC, Oregon, UCLA or Stanford wanting to play a few games a year against current Pac12 schools and then 6+ games against Southern or Midwest schools.

IMO they are fine to exist on their island as long as they get a Playoff berth.

As of now, each with their "existing" 12 schools, the P12 will likely get higher payouts per school than the B12 for their new TV deals.

But the P12 needs to do 4 things:
1) Sell or decommission PACN. They have to move their Tier 3 FB inventory off of PACN and monetize it significantly better than what they have.
2) Engage competitive, multiple bidders beyond ESPN and Fox for all tiers of their inventory (OTA and Streaming). If they don't, they are screwed (same deal with the B12)
3) Expand into the CT zone with 4 schools so they can get Saturday exposure from 11 AM CT through Midnight CT. Oregon's win at Ohio St in that 11 AM window was the best thing for P12 FB in several years.
4) Go to a hybrid revenue sharing model where 75% of the FB media rights pool is shared equally and 25% is based on viewership/ratings for televised games.

If ISU is invited as one of the 4 CT zone schools under these conditions, they should accept the offer if a B10 offer isn't coming.

 

[Win5002]

The fact that their deal sucks and that they couldn’t find a partner for their network is very telling. Scott had bold plans, including raiding the B12. He failEd, up it wasn’t just his incompetence. The P12 has been in trouble for a while and has been making the least money over that time. The power brokers in the sports were so busy working to destroy the B12, that people haven’t noticed. Geography has protected and doomed them all at once.

I'm pretty certain they turned down partners and chose to go on their own for a bigger upside. But it was the wrong choice because they needed ESPN or Fox to get them on directv and cable companies.

 

[SCNCY]

One thing the PAC 12 schools may want to revisit, would be doing morning kickoffs, or noon kickoffs eastern time. I know that was a big problem to them back in the mid 2000s, when they had a lot of support and media attention. If I can recall, I think they’ve gone away from those and opting to kickoff at noon local time. They may want to reverse that to get more games on TV as the first to kick off.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

I'm pretty certain they turned down partners and chose to go on their own for a bigger upside. But it was the wrong choice because they needed ESPN or Fox to get them on directv and cable companies.

Turned them down or were allowed to keep the rights? Was it a coup or did Larry Scott misstep again and ESPN/Fox played them?

 

[Win5002]

Turned them down or were allowed to keep the rights? Was it a coup or did Larry Scott misstep again and ESPN/Fox played them?

I'm pretty sure the PAC turned down network help when it started, so A Scott misstep.

 

[KnappShack]

 

[Scruff]

Looking less and less likely that our new Big 12 is going to be added to the alliance. Was 100% hoping for an 8-1-1-1 schedule where everyone gets a warm up game against group of 5 or FCS.

Hate the idea of a schedule alliance with the SEC, but I guess its better than nothing.

 

[cykadelic2]

I'm pretty certain they turned down partners and chose to go on their own for a bigger upside. But it was the wrong choice because they needed ESPN or Fox to get them on directv and cable companies.

Turned them down or were allowed to keep the rights? Was it a coup or did Larry Scott misstep again and ESPN/Fox played them?

Larry Scott turned down an ESPN offer to move their PACN inventory to ESPN+ in exchange for an extension of the P12 TV deal. Can't really blame Scott for that since the ESPN offer probably wouldn't have increased payouts.

Apple also reportedly inquired about buying PACN equity and were turned down by Scott before he departed. My guess is that offers like that will now be given more consideration, especially from a deep pocketed new entrant like Apple.

 

[Gilbyone]

The power of the new Big 12 is that it is centered in the mid-west (central time) and one time zone in each direction. This allows us to show games to the midlands and east coast, where most tv football fans are. Further expansion beyond 12 would need to focus on teams in these three time zones.

Considering that the B1G has trended to the northeast, our best targets are the Mountain TZ schools from the P12: Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, and Colorado. We would offer these schools better visibility across the eastern US market.

I expect that the B1G will try and snatch some of the remaining quality eastern schools such as Louisville, and perhaps our own West Virginia and Cincinnati.

Go Cyclones; Go Chiefs!!!!!!!

The expansion battles will continue, and may heat up again as everyone's current TV contracts come to renewal over the next few years. So, we need to get our TV partners lined up. With other possible TV outlets on the horizon, we also need to look at all other possibilities, so long as the $ are there. A comment about ESPN+: It has limited distribution (poor team visibility) and makes it hard to switch among games when you want to look in on the other Big12 games.

 

[HFCS]

BYU got second win over ranked Pac 12.
Cincy started out slow then crushed Indiana in the second half.
UCF lost by a TD to Louisville
Houston 45-0 over Grambling.

Frankly we're only ranked ahead of BYU because of last year's accomplishments.

Nobody is going to replace OU, but these teams are all currently as good or better on the field as the past decade's version of Texas and that's without benefit of playing in Big 12.

 

[Hoggins]

Highly, highly skeptical this scheduling thing ever gets off the ground. The PAC commissioner quote sounds like us idiot talking into the void. Scheduling is much more complicated than just “8-1-1!”

 

[JM4CY]

Looking less and less likely that our new Big 12 is going to be added to the alliance. Was 100% hoping for an 8-1-1-1 schedule where everyone gets a warm up game against group of 5 or FCS.

Hate the idea of a schedule alliance with the SEC, but I guess its better than nothing.

Outside of Alabama, Georgia and Florida, that conference is not a juggernaut. There are plenty of very, very beatable teams to just plain bad teams. I think the new big 12 could hold its own. I’d rather make Okie st deal with Alabama though than us, in this scenario.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Outside of Alabama, Georgia and Florida, that conference is not a juggernaut. There are plenty of very, very beatable teams to just plain bad teams. I think the new big 12 could hold its own. I’d rather make Okie st deal with Alabama though than us, in this scenario.

LSU?

 

[Scruff]

Oklahoma?

I don't like the SEC, but there is a reason most people consider it the best conference. Adding OU and Texas just adds to the depth. I prefer the alliance with the Big 10, ACC & PAC because there are more teams to choose from and I strongly feel we'd do more winning as a conference in that alignment.