Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

[cyIclSoneU]

we don’t have the SEC luxury of 8 games and a late season Indiana State home game

I think the idea of 8 conference games would be more like if we got into the Alliance or if we got an SEC scheduling thing set up. I think 9 is more likely though both for money and for the highest number of games against good teams. (Unless the Alliance lets us in and those four conferences play 8+1+1+1 schedules.)

 

[AuH2O]

Not instantly, but that's why they have phantom access for awhile. Losing and irrelevance gives people the wandering eye. The older fans, maybe, but inherently those fans are dying out. 10-15 years of no real success and the story all about the North-South BIG/SEC battle, and fans will start to have teams they root for in that drama.

For the same reason these schools weren't invited in 2023, you're not going to lose much in 15 years after they've been slowly suffocated out. People already don't watch them in the numbers networks can justify, That number will only go down as they are fodder for 15 years. Whatever hit in ratings is easily offset by this polarizing national North-South battle and feeding less mouths

I would agree if people didn't have the NFL to watch and college football attendance and viewership weren't on the decline. The areas that will get more big games (mainly the SE) have achieved a pretty high viewership rate already. Let's also keep in mind it's not like we're talking about every week being an Oklahoma - Alabama matchup. The dogs in the SEC and Big 10 will still be playing, so you are talking about a pretty marginal boost in big games. So if the SEC gets rid of the November-FCS fest for a conference game, then requires addition of yet another non-con power conference game, you're not talking about some dramatic shift. You're talking about a couple games per season per team that become more compelling. Probably not enough for most casual fans to notice, nor enough for die hard fans of relegated teams to pick a new horse. And if CBS stays locked out of CFB who's to say they don't just try to work out Saturday games every week? They do that and CFB can kiss pretty much every casual fan good-bye. It will be interesting to see what happens when we get a major network with NFL coverage and no CFB coverage.

 

[Itjustdoesn'tmatter]

If PAC loses CU that is not a big deal. They could just not expand or grab a big 12 team. If it loses USC and Oregon the conference is toast and is probably ripe for poaching from the Big 12. If it loses only USC OR Oregon, then I think it would try to poach a package of Big 12 teams, but it probably loses a ton of leverage in requiring new members to give up media dollars.

I agree with points 2 & 3, but what single BIG XII team would the PAC want and would leave the new BIG XII?

 

[KnappShack]

I agree with points 2 & 3, but what single BIG XII team would the PAC want and would leave the new BIG XII?

All of them?

 

[cyIclSoneU]

I agree with points 2 & 3, but what single BIG XII team would the PAC want and would leave the new BIG XII?

In a situation where the B1G adds Kansas and Colorado and stops at 16 (meaning USC, UCLA, Oregon are staying in the Pac-12), I think any of the Big 12 schools would take a Pac-12 offer.

 

[WhoISthis]

I would agree if people didn't have the NFL to watch and college football attendance and viewership weren't on the decline. The areas that will get more big games (mainly the SE) have achieved a pretty high viewership rate already. Let's also keep in mind it's not like we're talking about every week being an Oklahoma - Alabama matchup. The dogs in the SEC and Big 10 will still be playing, so you are talking about a pretty marginal boost in big games. So if the SEC gets rid of the November-FCS fest for a conference game, then requires addition of yet another non-con power conference game, you're not talking about some dramatic shift. You're talking about a couple games per season per team that become more compelling. Probably not enough for most casual fans to notice, nor enough for die hard fans of relegated teams to pick a new horse. And if CBS stays locked out of CFB who's to say they don't just try to work out Saturday games every week? They do that and CFB can kiss pretty much every casual fan good-bye. It will be interesting to see what happens when we get a major network with NFL coverage and no CFB coverage.

I think in 10-15 years, the North-South P40-P48 polarization would draw nationally better than the current BIG-SEC. We LOVE polarization here. I am fearful just how intense it would get.

But that is besides the point. The fans of the Leftovers no longer caring is of no impact for the networks, for the very reason you laid out here.

If the leftover aren't watching the SEC-BIG now, the incremental loss of them not being fans of BIG-SEC CFB in the future is less than the cost avoidance from not paying those schools. KSU and ISU fans no longer CFB fans? Great, we don't pay them $25 million/year, which as you laid out, is way more than what their value is in terms of contributing viewership to SEC-BIG games. In the long run. we'll get paid what ever our "caring" is worth, no sweat to the networks.

They want us to not care, as they know they'll steal some fans, and us just going away is saving them more than what we contribute to the chosen few.

 

[AuH2O]

I agree with points 2 & 3, but what single BIG XII team would the PAC want and would leave the new BIG XII?

ISU and Okie St. would be right behind USC and Oregon in TV viewers, and both represent a major boost vs. CU in that regard. The only time any Big 12 team would think twice about joining the PAC is if USC and Oregon left. Otherwise I don't think any would turn them down.

If USC and Oregon both left I think the poaching shoe is on the other foot. If only one of USC or Oregon stay, if they appear to be in it for the long haul, I'd say it would still be a better long-term bet than the new Big 12. Having even one flagship national brand in the conference is still a big deal.

 

[BCClone]

I think in 10-15 years, the North-South P40-P48 would draw nationally better than the current BIG-SEC

But that is besides the point. The fans of the Leftovers no longer caring is of no impact for the networks, for the very reason you laid out here.

If the leftover aren't watching the SEC-BIG now, the incremental loss of them not being fans of BIG-SEC CFB in the future is less than the cost avoidance from not paying those schools. KSU and ISU fans no longer CFB fans? Great, we don't pay them $25 million/year, which as you laid out, is way more than what their value is in terms of viewership of SEC-BIG games.

If it goes P40, it most likely will shake up all the conferences. It may not make any difference what your current budget or stature is, it will strictly come to what perceived value is. I could see Maryland and Nebraska teams making the cut whereas Michigan State and Iowa not. Heck, if they think rutgers covers the NY market, they could be put in in front of Virginia Tech. It would be chaos.

 

[HFCS]

I would agree if people didn't have the NFL to watch and college football attendance and viewership weren't on the decline. The areas that will get more big games (mainly the SE) have achieved a pretty high viewership rate already. Let's also keep in mind it's not like we're talking about every week being an Oklahoma - Alabama matchup. The dogs in the SEC and Big 10 will still be playing, so you are talking about a pretty marginal boost in big games. So if the SEC gets rid of the November-FCS fest for a conference game, then requires addition of yet another non-con power conference game, you're not talking about some dramatic shift. You're talking about a couple games per season per team that become more compelling. Probably not enough for most casual fans to notice, nor enough for die hard fans of relegated teams to pick a new horse. And if CBS stays locked out of CFB who's to say they don't just try to work out Saturday games every week? They do that and CFB can kiss pretty much every casual fan good-bye. It will be interesting to see what happens when we get a major network with NFL coverage and no CFB coverage.

Id totally just watch more NBA and watch no football if ISU ends up at FCS or MAC relevance.

the only reason I’ve watched nfl is when others forced it on me in Chicago or following Montgomery and Lazard lately.

 

[WhoISthis]

If it goes P40, it most likely will shake up all the conferences. It may not make any difference what your current budget or stature is, it will strictly come to what perceived value is. I could see Maryland and Nebraska teams making the cut whereas Michigan State and Iowa not. Heck, if they think rutgers covers the NY market, they could be put in in front of Virginia Tech. It would be chaos.

Perhaps. Likely the next round after P40-P48.

The thing is, even the most pathetic franchise is worth a lot. If the P40-P48 would not cull right away, these otherwise poor brands, are now much more valuable just from being "in". Miss St is now different to everyone in the nation in regards to KSU (this is already happening due to the SEC brand and perception).

I think the networks want P40-P48, the non-SEC presidents less so. I believe this end game, and whether it desired, was a talking point of the Alliance. But I am just not convinced they don't just preserve most of the Pac12, leaving the SEC to take the ACC. Forming P2 +1.

Short of actually having an Alliance with bundled networks, revenue sharing, the pay disparity is P2. If the BIG doesn't add, the SEC will.

 

[Win5002]

Not instantly, but that's why they have phantom access for awhile. Losing and irrelevance gives people the wandering eye. The older fans, maybe, but inherently those fans are dying out. 10-15 years of no real success and the story all about the North-South BIG/SEC battle, and fans will start to have teams they root for in that drama.

For the same reason these schools weren't invited in 2023, you're not going to lose much in 15 years after they've been slowly suffocated out. People already don't watch them in the numbers networks can justify, That number will only go down as they are fodder for 15 years. Whatever hit in ratings is easily offset by this polarizing national North-South battle and feeding less mouths

Thats where we would disagree. CFB will never be popular enough to have its national audience depend on 32-40 teams or even 48 for that matter. Your telling too many fan bases they don't matter.

I have watched college football my whole life because the state I live in has two teams to watch not because of the value of the product in comparison to the NFL. As I have aged I have realized what a crap show CFB ends its season on and their desire to engineer matchups and outcomes. At times, I almost feel like I am watching WWE instead of football, due to all of the engineering. So I have watched more NFL especially at the end of the season because CFB has no purposeful ending.

But after watching about 5 NFL games yesterday it just reinforces it is football on the highest level and if you don't give a CFB fan a reason to watch due to a team involved in the product its inferior to the NFL. It will be like making CFB AAA baseball and nobody real cares about AAA baseball. Then when you have 32-48 teams playing themselves and you have schools having a lot more losses than they previously had, it will be a challenge to get those schools fans to stay involved at the numbers they wanted. Especially, the casual fan.

 

[Win5002]

Perhaps. Likely the next round after P40-P48.

The thing is, even the most pathetic franchise is worth a lot. If the P40-P48 would not cull right away, these otherwise poor brands, are now much more valuable just from being "in". Miss St is now different to everyone in the nation in regards to KSU (this is already happening due to the SEC brand and perception).

I think the networks want P40-P48, the non-SEC presidents less so. I believe this end game, and whether it desired, was a talking point of the Alliance. But I am just not convinced they don't just preserve most of the Pac12, leaving the SEC to take the ACC. Forming P2 +1.

Short of actually having an Alliance with bundled networks, revenue sharing, the pay disparity is P2. If the BIG doesn't add, the SEC will.

Bowlsby stating they may look at as many teams as 20-24 in the future indicates a P3 where the 3rd league gets paid a lot less. Although you could have a P4 with 80 teams where the 3rd & 4th leagues are more aligned geographically (east and west).

 

[CYCLNST8]

I like the idea of 8 conference games to make it easier for bowl eligibility. The more bowl eligible teams we have, the better. You allow a program that's struggling to feast on 4 cupcakes, they only need 2 conference wins for eligibility. That's how the SEC gets Vanderbilt into the post season.

 

[WhoISthis]

In a situation where the B1G adds Kansas and Colorado and stops at 16 (meaning USC, UCLA, Oregon are staying in the Pac-12), I think any of the Big 12 schools would take a Pac-12 offer.

Agree, but I don't think an offer would be coming- they would just sit at 11. Potentially their revenue/team even goes up, i dont know.

But USC and Oregon would still be making way less than their playoff competition. If they don't have a BIG offer, how long before the SEC invites? Perhaps they are okay with that, knowing it is better to make the playoffs at $30 million than have a tough path at $80 million. Money means more when bad? OuT did not think so.

 

[BCClone]

Bowlsby stating they may look at as many teams as 20-24 in the future indicates a P3 where the 3rd league gets paid a lot less. Although you could have a P4 with 80 teams where the 3rd & 4th leagues are more aligned geographically (east and west).

Uneven distribution will hit the top conferences before that all happens. OSU/Bama/Clemson will not be happy to share when they realize that they can get other teams to play them for much less than what the other tag along in their conference require.

 

[WhoISthis]

Bowlsby stating they may look at as many teams as 20-24 in the future indicates a P3 where the 3rd league gets paid a lot less. Although you could have a P4 with 80 teams where the 3rd & 4th leagues are more aligned geographically (east and west).

Yes, P3 was the objective in staying together imo, and should be the floor for ISU/Big 12. It is why many have been against Boise or Memphis, etc. I assume this is why we went with 4, to take backfill candidates for the Pac12 and ACC, plus any possible P2 departures. Being the first leftover will have advantages for these middle America teams, we are well positioned to be in a conference of the best of the rest in TV world, but a ton of brands everyone knows.

That is the best bet to stave off complete segregation during the intermediate time of a 8-12 team playoff.
Winning some of those games would go a long ways, as would finding a partner to start a similar conference network with carriage fees- monetizing raw population of cities like Houston, Orlando, etc would be a huge help. I think it can be done with the right leadership- there are networks that lose if P2 hegemony occurs. Maye streaming is that pivot, but P2 will still dominate that. I think getting in on the last of the linear world is a better chance.

Imo P3 is linked 8 or 9 Pac12 teams to the BIG scenario. If just 4-6, there is a chance of two remaining mid-tier conferences. I'm not sure that is best. The BIG or SEC being forced to add more just to get their top targets actually clouds the lines better imo.

 

[WhoISthis]

Thats where we would disagree. CFB will never be popular enough to have its national audience depend on 32-40 teams or even 48 for that matter. Your telling too many fan bases they don't matter.

I have watched college football my whole life because the state I live in has two teams to watch not because of the value of the product in comparison to the NFL. As I have aged I have realized what a crap show CFB ends its season on and their desire to engineer matchups and outcomes. At times, I almost feel like I am watching WWE instead of football, due to all of the engineering. So I have watched more NFL especially at the end of the season because CFB has no purposeful ending.

But after watching about 5 NFL games yesterday it just reinforces it is football on the highest level and if you don't give a CFB fan a reason to watch due to a team involved in the product its inferior to the NFL. It will be like making CFB AAA baseball and nobody real cares about AAA baseball. Then when you have 32-48 teams playing themselves and you have schools having a lot more losses than they previously had, it will be a challenge to get those schools fans to stay involved at the numbers they wanted. Especially, the casual fan.

Similar starting point, different conclusion. The SEC and ESPN have already figured out it is regional/not national- so why pay for a national map with redundancy? Most of those excluded by nature don't have many fans that add TV revenue to the current average of the P48, if they did, they'd be invited.

Will it go down? Yes, but not as much as what they just avoided paying for. That is the key. That is inherent to the exclusion. The elasticity will only improve after slowly suffocating the fans over 10-15 years.

Think of it this way. If the SEC makes a network enough to justify on average paying a team $80 million, why pay Big 12 teams $30 million to get a fraction of them to watch the SEC? Make the Big 12 fans not care at all, thereby paying them nothing. Maybe that means you only get $75 million worth of viewership revenue per SEC team, but you just saved $30 million by no longer needing to pay the Big 12 schools.

I assure you the networks have done that math. They've studied the elasticity of exclusion, and they'll make more.

I also think you're overestimating losing the non P48 schools in terms of losing the ability to be more national and less regional. Adding the North-South polarization makes people pick sides. It will be bigger than now, but with less teams.


NLI is a bigger threat to their product imo. Losing Big 12 fans that don't watch at the level of the P48 is good math, although cold hearted. Losing the BIG and SEC fans of the P32-P48 because they don't want to watch kids making millions of NLI may be a bigger deal

 

[isucy86]

OK then, it's settled?
OK then, when do we draw up the contract?
View attachment 89767

That would be my preferred Big12 division split as it keeps Big8 rivalries in one division

But will be curious if the following aren't Big12 requirements in creating divisions:

• Each division includes 2 Texas schools
• Each division includes 2 new Big12 schools

I think we could see:

Division A
- Iowa State
- Kansas
- Kansas State
- TCU
- Houston
- BYU

Division B
- Okie State
- Texas Tech
- Baylor
- WVU
- Cincy
- UCF

I like the idea of the 2 teams with the best record playing in the CCG. So the above divisions would be "virtual" for scheduling priority. Then schools in 1 division would play 4 opponents in the other division each year with a 2 year rotation home/road.

 

[AuH2O]

I think in 10-15 years, the North-South P40-P48 polarization would draw nationally better than the current BIG-SEC. We LOVE polarization here. I am fearful just how intense it would get.

But that is besides the point. The fans of the Leftovers no longer caring is of no impact for the networks, for the very reason you laid out here.

If the leftover aren't watching the SEC-BIG now, the incremental loss of them not being fans of BIG-SEC CFB in the future is less than the cost avoidance from not paying those schools. KSU and ISU fans no longer CFB fans? Great, we don't pay them $25 million/year, which as you laid out, is way more than what their value is in terms of contributing viewership to SEC-BIG games.

They want us to not care, as they know they'll steal some fans, and us just going away is saving them more than what we contribute to the chosen few.

I’m saying fans of ISU/KSU and schools like that are more likely to watch games in the BIG/SEC being part of the bigger club than they would be if relegated. Then there would also be a segment of the fans if those teams that stop watching their own teams. Lastly, you have fans of other teams that watch teams like ISU when they are good because they are at the same level and there are national implications, to the tune of 2.8 and 2 mil vs OSU and KSU last year. Lots of people watched ISU and Cincy last year. They aren’t watching James Madison.

Do you really think having the inventory of an ISU game isn't worth the $20-25 million per year in carriage fees and ad revenue, and they would just fill more air time with extra replays of SportsCenter and Stephen A. Smith shows? ESPNs ideal is to keep these teams elevated in a power conference type level at the lowest possible cost. I don’t think that’s much less than $25 mil, but I guess we will find out.

 

[Win5002]

I’m saying fans of ISU/KSU and schools like that are more likely to watch games in the BIG/SEC being part of the bigger club than they would be if relegated. Then there would also be a segment of the fans if those teams that stop watching their own teams. Lastly, you have fans of other teams that watch teams like ISU when they are good because they are at the same level and there are national implications, to the tune of 2.8 and 2 mil vs OSU and KSU last year. Lots of people watched ISU and Cincy last year. They aren’t watching James Madison.

Do you really think having the inventory of an ISU game isn't worth the $20-25 million per year in carriage fees and ad revenue, and they would just fill more air time with extra replays of SportsCenter and Stephen A. Smith shows? ESPNs ideal is to keep these teams elevated in a power conference type level at the lowest possible cost. I don’t think that’s much less than $25 mil, but I guess we will find out.

The poster your quoting thinks the 40-48 is popular enough eventually to do away with the remaining 32-40 schools(the number is fluid) eventually.

I don't believe the CFB is popular enough to do it on that limited number of teams.

Long term, like 10-15 years after the move I also think it will be interesting to see what does OU and/or UT think is best if they have floundered in the SEC and damaged their brand.

The B1G hasn't been a great situation for Nebraska, neither has the SEC for Arkansas. It hasn't done anything for Colorado, Missouri or A&M in terms of on field success either. The same question could be asked of USC if they eventually leave. These fans essentially brag our conference makes more than your conference instead of bragging about their own on field success. Its really a sad state of college athletics.

Schools may regret losing their built in advantages in the conferences they were previously in due to the past existing power hierarchy.