Iowa State ranking pitifully in the KenPom luck stat is pretty constant throughout the Prohm era.
That says either... Prohm really has just been that unlucky... or you could invert the stat and call it a "clutch" stat, measuring how efficiently you distribute your net points in close games to manufacture Ws.
Prohm has not been good in close games. My normal thoughts there is that winning close games is mostly luck and teams regress to the 50-50 mean in the long term, but Prohm has tried my patience there.
Say Prohm and the team finished off three of the good teams we had good shots at (or even had on the ropes, objectively, with a few of them). We would be 3-15 in the Big 12 with three good wins.
Prohm might be back under those circumstances. Pollard would be looking for excuses to keep him given our fiscal situation, and a few big wins to point to with Hunter coming in... "Coach Prohm has done a fine job under the most difficult of circumstances with COVID this year and, despite having nearly a new roster, managed to win some big games and keep many other close. The team is on the cusp of something. With the returning talent and an ace PG recruit coming in, I think it is only appropriate to give him one more year to prove it." But that won't work now.