[put this in another thread to, but damn it, I just spent 2 hours looking all of this up so here it is again]
So, NY6 bowl setups. Guaranteed the top 9 are in (#10, #11 and #12 have been left out before but never #9).
G5 team will probably be in the top 12 this year so that does not "rob" a spot (unless both Cincy and CC lose and badly). Only twice has the G5 team been in top 12.
Only 4 times has a P5 team higher than 12 made it in,
2015: #16 Okie St. (were #17, no clue as TCU was #11)
2016: #14 Auburn (were #14)
2018: #15 Texas (were #14, lost CCG)
2019: #24 Virginia (were #23, I think there was some bowl contract requirement)
Only twice has a team in top 10 CFP fallen more than 3 spots in final poll.
2019: Utah was #5 going into PAC12 CCG, lost to #13 Oregon by 22, fell to #11 and was first team out.
2017: Auburn was #2 going into SEC CCG, lost to #6 Georgia by 21, fell to #7, still played NY6.
ALL other top 10 CFP teams going into CCG fell 3 spots or less no matter the score of the CCG.
If we get to #6 this week and can either win or just keep it close, we SHOULD fall no further than #9 and still be in a NY6 bowl. If we are #6 and Oklahoma is #9, we would probably just swap positions. Georgia will not be playing, Indiana (probably #11) is playing 2-4 Purdue so shouldn't rise more than 1 and still be behind us. If we get blown out, there is the committee bias that may put Indiana at #9 and us at #10 but even then, #10 has only been left out once.
Let's Just Win and remove any doubt!
So, NY6 bowl setups. Guaranteed the top 9 are in (#10, #11 and #12 have been left out before but never #9).
G5 team will probably be in the top 12 this year so that does not "rob" a spot (unless both Cincy and CC lose and badly). Only twice has the G5 team been in top 12.
Only 4 times has a P5 team higher than 12 made it in,
2015: #16 Okie St. (were #17, no clue as TCU was #11)
2016: #14 Auburn (were #14)
2018: #15 Texas (were #14, lost CCG)
2019: #24 Virginia (were #23, I think there was some bowl contract requirement)
Only twice has a team in top 10 CFP fallen more than 3 spots in final poll.
2019: Utah was #5 going into PAC12 CCG, lost to #13 Oregon by 22, fell to #11 and was first team out.
2017: Auburn was #2 going into SEC CCG, lost to #6 Georgia by 21, fell to #7, still played NY6.
ALL other top 10 CFP teams going into CCG fell 3 spots or less no matter the score of the CCG.
If we get to #6 this week and can either win or just keep it close, we SHOULD fall no further than #9 and still be in a NY6 bowl. If we are #6 and Oklahoma is #9, we would probably just swap positions. Georgia will not be playing, Indiana (probably #11) is playing 2-4 Purdue so shouldn't rise more than 1 and still be behind us. If we get blown out, there is the committee bias that may put Indiana at #9 and us at #10 but even then, #10 has only been left out once.
Let's Just Win and remove any doubt!