Most major sports media bowl projectionists seem to be sticking with the same 2017 bowl projection they had for Iowa State before the Cyclones lost to Kansas State in the final regular season game last Saturday. The majority consensus is that Iowa State will play in the Camping World Bowl in Orlando, followed by the Liberty Bowl in Memphis with the second most number of projections.
These bowl projectionists seem to be overlooking the fact that Iowa State lost to Kansas State last weekend, however, and with head to head losses vs every other team ISU is tied for fourth with in the Big 12 final season standings, the Cyclones technically finished seventh in the conference – second to last out of all bowl eligible teams ahead of Texas Tech. If it is true that bowl committees generally pick the team with the highest conference standing still available from the list of contracted conference teams available that they can choose from then it is very unlikely Iowa State will be selected by the Camping World Bowl.
Most bowl projectionists agree on two scenarios that will determine what bowl games the Big 12 eligible teams will play in –
Scenario 1 - Oklahoma AND TCU play in New Year’s CFP games – either CFP Semifinal Invite for Oklahoma and TCU gets at-large New Year’s bowl, OR no Semi-final invite for OK and TCU is still selected to a New Year's bowl.
If this occurs, Oklahoma State will be first in line when the Big12 conference contract bowls select teams. Starting with OK State here is the likely 2017 Big 12 conference bowl game selections (with consideration of the possibility that some teams may not be selected to a bowl based solely on their final conference standing due to playing in the same bowl game in 2016) -
1. Alamo - Oklahoma State - Only reason OKState would not play in the Alamo is because they played in it last year, but it is extremely likely the Alamo will not pass on the highest ranked team with the best record (after OK & TCU) in OK State.
2. Camping World – Texas
3. Texas Bowl – West Virginia – The Mountaineers played in the Russell Athletic Bowl last year which is now the Camping World Bowl (CWB). It is not uncommon for bowl committees to select a different team out of conference standing pecking order in these situations. This might be the reason for all the Iowa State Camping World projections because of Texas’ 6-6 record and WVU having played in the CW bowl last year. But again, even if the CWB committee decides to skip WVU and Texas, IF the committee selects the next highest team in conference standing they would pick Kansas State – Not Iowa State. KState also played in the Texas Bowl last year which might factor in to the selection process.
4. Liberty – Kansas State
5. Cactus – Iowa State
6. Zaxby's HOD Bowl – Texas Tech
Scenario 2 - Oklahoma plays in semi-final or other CFP New Year’s bowl and TCU does not – in this scenario TCU gets bumped down into first place in the Big 12 contracted bowl games list.
1. Alamo - TCU
2. Camping World – Oklahoma State
3. Texas Bowl – Texas
5. Liberty – West Virginia
5. Cactus – Kansas State
6. Zaxby's HOD Bowl – Iowa State
7. ? - Texas Tech
No matter if TCU wins or loses this Saturday in the championship game it looks very likely they will be playing up in one of the New Year’s At Large bowls – which means scenario 1 seems to be far more likely than 2. Based on historical precedence in how bowl committees select teams by final conference standing if fan base travel and other revenue indicators are close, odds are poor that Iowa State will be selected to the Camping World Bowl, and it is far more likely that the Cyclones wind up in the Cactus Bowl unless one of the higher selection bowl committees selects Iowa State due to previously mentioned reasons that they feel will ultimately lead to higher attendance and revenue for their bowl. As a Cyclone Alum and Fan I sure hope that is the case.
With all that said – until later this Sunday evening no one knows for sure what bowl game Iowa State or any other Big 12 team will be selected to, but if you are a gambler and are thinking about booking rooms or flights to beat the rush when Iowa State is officially selected on Sunday you might want to add Phoenix to your pre-bowl selection travel arrangements. Just make sure those rooms and flights can be cancelled without penalty no matter what bowls you bet on!
These bowl projectionists seem to be overlooking the fact that Iowa State lost to Kansas State last weekend, however, and with head to head losses vs every other team ISU is tied for fourth with in the Big 12 final season standings, the Cyclones technically finished seventh in the conference – second to last out of all bowl eligible teams ahead of Texas Tech. If it is true that bowl committees generally pick the team with the highest conference standing still available from the list of contracted conference teams available that they can choose from then it is very unlikely Iowa State will be selected by the Camping World Bowl.
Most bowl projectionists agree on two scenarios that will determine what bowl games the Big 12 eligible teams will play in –
Scenario 1 - Oklahoma AND TCU play in New Year’s CFP games – either CFP Semifinal Invite for Oklahoma and TCU gets at-large New Year’s bowl, OR no Semi-final invite for OK and TCU is still selected to a New Year's bowl.
If this occurs, Oklahoma State will be first in line when the Big12 conference contract bowls select teams. Starting with OK State here is the likely 2017 Big 12 conference bowl game selections (with consideration of the possibility that some teams may not be selected to a bowl based solely on their final conference standing due to playing in the same bowl game in 2016) -
1. Alamo - Oklahoma State - Only reason OKState would not play in the Alamo is because they played in it last year, but it is extremely likely the Alamo will not pass on the highest ranked team with the best record (after OK & TCU) in OK State.
2. Camping World – Texas
3. Texas Bowl – West Virginia – The Mountaineers played in the Russell Athletic Bowl last year which is now the Camping World Bowl (CWB). It is not uncommon for bowl committees to select a different team out of conference standing pecking order in these situations. This might be the reason for all the Iowa State Camping World projections because of Texas’ 6-6 record and WVU having played in the CW bowl last year. But again, even if the CWB committee decides to skip WVU and Texas, IF the committee selects the next highest team in conference standing they would pick Kansas State – Not Iowa State. KState also played in the Texas Bowl last year which might factor in to the selection process.
4. Liberty – Kansas State
5. Cactus – Iowa State
6. Zaxby's HOD Bowl – Texas Tech
Scenario 2 - Oklahoma plays in semi-final or other CFP New Year’s bowl and TCU does not – in this scenario TCU gets bumped down into first place in the Big 12 contracted bowl games list.
1. Alamo - TCU
2. Camping World – Oklahoma State
3. Texas Bowl – Texas
5. Liberty – West Virginia
5. Cactus – Kansas State
6. Zaxby's HOD Bowl – Iowa State
7. ? - Texas Tech
No matter if TCU wins or loses this Saturday in the championship game it looks very likely they will be playing up in one of the New Year’s At Large bowls – which means scenario 1 seems to be far more likely than 2. Based on historical precedence in how bowl committees select teams by final conference standing if fan base travel and other revenue indicators are close, odds are poor that Iowa State will be selected to the Camping World Bowl, and it is far more likely that the Cyclones wind up in the Cactus Bowl unless one of the higher selection bowl committees selects Iowa State due to previously mentioned reasons that they feel will ultimately lead to higher attendance and revenue for their bowl. As a Cyclone Alum and Fan I sure hope that is the case.
With all that said – until later this Sunday evening no one knows for sure what bowl game Iowa State or any other Big 12 team will be selected to, but if you are a gambler and are thinking about booking rooms or flights to beat the rush when Iowa State is officially selected on Sunday you might want to add Phoenix to your pre-bowl selection travel arrangements. Just make sure those rooms and flights can be cancelled without penalty no matter what bowls you bet on!
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