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***Official Big 12 Expansion Thread '16***

I don't see Texas going to the SEC or B1G. I think they will end up in the ACC or Pac12. OU probably goes SEC and may bring OSU with them. KU to the B1G.

ISU will likely end up with KState, TCU, Baylor, Houston, Memphis and whoever else gets passed over. I would assume we keep the B12 name but won't have B12 money any more.
 
acgclone said:
I don't see Texas going to the SEC or B1G. I think they will end up in the ACC or Pac12. OU probably goes SEC and may bring OSU with them. KU to the B1G.

ISU will likely end up with KState, TCU, Baylor, Houston, Memphis and whoever else gets passed over. I would assume we keep the B12 name but won't have B12 money any more.
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I don't see Texas going to the Pac 12. The money gap is will probably be about $30m in 8 years. Is Texas going to the Pac 12 going to make up that gap? They are more likely to go to ACC if they leave.

I also don't see OSU going to SEC if OU goes there. SEC would rather expand their footprint by taking teams from 2 different states instead of 1. So look for West Virginia to be the 2nd.

So IF (still big IF), the Big 12 blows up, the most likely is:

Texas to ACC
OU and WVU to SEC
KU to Big 10

So in that situation, ACC would need another to keep their conference even. Notre Dame could be the 16th, but I don't think they will ever join a conference in football.

Big 10 would need another. Who is left that has the academic profile that fits the Big 10 and is in a power five conference and already draws over 50k right now in football and would be available?

1. Iowa State
2. Pac 12 teams
3 SEC Teams

Pac 12 teams are not likely due to geography
SEC Teams are not likely due to being in the SEC; however, Missouri is not completely out of the question especially if Kansas is one of the teams.

So lets say ISU does not get into the Big 10. The question is whether the Pac 12 wants to join the super conference race and expand. Who would be left for the Pac 12?

1. Big 12 teams (ISU, KSU, OSU, Tech, Baylor, TCU)
2. G5 teams
3. Big 10 and SEC Teams
4. BYU

Big 10 and SEC teams are not going to the Pac 12. The money gap is just too wide. The Pac 12 could add G5 teams, but why aren't they adding them now if they are attractive. So the most attractive are probably Big 12 teams.

1. BYU, Baylor and TCU will not go to the Pac 12. Anyone who suggests that needs to learn a little about the Pac 12. They don't want a religious institution in the conference. Also, Tech and KSU don't fit the academic profile. That leaves OSU and ISU. ISU has the better academic profile. ISU has a strong following in football. They add a new state which increases the footprint (which is a disadvantage of Big 10). Conference won't look at wins/losses, they will look at whether the team has eyeballs. Iowa State has shown that they have more fans than the other options.

So I am not concerned about whether Iowa State will end up in a power conference. I think that Pac 12 will be an option if OU and UT leave. ISU will remain one of the best options.

If you allow some of the G5 schools in the Big 12 now without a GOR and they build the infrastructure up to the level of ISU, then that is when we are in trouble.
 
HoopsTournament said:
I don't see Texas going to the Pac 12. The money gap is will probably be about $30m in 8 years. Is Texas going to the Pac 12 going to make up that gap? They are more likely to go to ACC if they leave.

I also don't see OSU going to SEC if OU goes there. SEC would rather expand their footprint by taking teams from 2 different states instead of 1. So look for West Virginia to be the 2nd.

So IF (still big IF), the Big 12 blows up, the most likely is:

Texas to ACC
OU and WVU to SEC
KU to Big 10

So in that situation, ACC would need another to keep their conference even. Notre Dame could be the 16th, but I don't think they will ever join a conference in football.

Big 10 would need another. Who is left that has the academic profile that fits the Big 10 and is in a power five conference and already draws over 50k right now in football and would be available?

1. Iowa State
2. Pac 12 teams
3 SEC Teams

Pac 12 teams are not likely due to geography
SEC Teams are not likely due to being in the SEC; however, Missouri is not completely out of the question especially if Kansas is one of the teams.

So lets say ISU does not get into the Big 10. The question is whether the Pac 12 wants to join the super conference race and expand. Who would be left for the Pac 12?

1. Big 12 teams (ISU, KSU, OSU, Tech, Baylor, TCU)
2. G5 teams
3. Big 10 and SEC Teams
4. BYU

Big 10 and SEC teams are not going to the Pac 12. The money gap is just too wide. The Pac 12 could add G5 teams, but why aren't they adding them now if they are attractive. So the most attractive are probably Big 12 teams.

1. BYU, Baylor and TCU will not go to the Pac 12. Anyone who suggests that needs to learn a little about the Pac 12. They don't want a religious institution in the conference. Also, Tech and KSU don't fit the academic profile. That leaves OSU and ISU. ISU has the better academic profile. ISU has a strong following in football. They add a new state which increases the footprint (which is a disadvantage of Big 10). Conference won't look at wins/losses, they will look at whether the team has eyeballs. Iowa State has shown that they have more fans than the other options.

So I am not concerned about whether Iowa State will end up in a power conference. I think that Pac 12 will be an option if OU and UT leave. ISU will remain one of the best options.

If you allow some of the G5 schools in the Big 12 now without a GOR and they build the infrastructure up to the level of ISU, then that is when we are in trouble.
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Completely agree you don't want to give a school like Houston the platform to become a more attractive P5 option unless there is a LONG GOR extension.
 
  • Agree
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In regards to the very possible implosion of the Big 12 and ISU's landing spot:

We need to become too big to fail. I think Jamie is following that strategy. All the money we get needs to be spent or committed. He's been upgrading everything, and that shouldn't stop. As others have said, it will be a political issue if we get left off, and we need it to be. We need to take advantage of the sunk cost fallacy. "Look how much money Iowa State has poured into athletics, there's no way they can be left out."

For those confident it'll work out, I wish I shared your optimism. Of course politicians will fight for us. But it's a guarantee of nothing.

My prediction: No GOR extension, Big 12 does not live to see 2030. 50/50 on ISU landing in a major conference.
 
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  • Agree
Reactions: tsirnickesqcy
After reading all the posts and articles over last several weeks it is my humble opinion that this is much ado about nothing again. The B12 is like an alcoholic who must be the center of attention and when the spotlight is upon them they drink away success when it is time to perform! OU and TX do nothing for conference except to keep it viable for tv money and NC access. 2025 will show their true "togetherness" when they bolt to SEC and go independent respectively. LHN will never be let go as TX is tied like an umbilical cord to ESPN. OU cannot get to PAC as they tried before but PAC does not want OSU. SEC may as would set-up great pod for OU/OSU/ARK and LSU.
Those people who repeatedly assuage themselves by stating ISU's AAU status and the MBB make us a better prospect are in denial. The suckeyes to the east provide the eyeballs for B1G - they don't want us. PAC already has a ratings downer in CU. We need to block any expansion that upgrades any school not on the 64 field radar. BYU/Cincy should be only candidates. It was posted earlier that all conferences have lesser schools - B1G has many if cable becomes a la carte! ACC and SEC have a few as well as PAC. B12 has many - and adding 2 more along with BYU/Cincy is suicide by addition.

JP and CMC must get this dead horse FB team into a consistent winner to make us one of those 64 choices. Thankfully Baylor is killing themselves and KSU has community college academics and once vampire retires no athletics. I am an old Cyclone and do not want to see my beloved alma mater playing on Tuesdays against NDSU and UNI as we fall down to 1AA. Hoping for a miracle player like Google or Apple or whatsit is a fools game - Big Networks have the money now - they are like Big Oil and will kill any competitor. To think otherwise is buying into some click writers pipe dream.
 
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I have a bad feeling Texas/Tech, KU/KSU, and OU/OSU are all going to be package deals, I hope I'm wrong. These next few years are absolutely critical for Iowa State to start winning in football and keep the basketball program going. I think upgrading the Berg is a very good idea. I personally would like to see them extend it north and then enclose the north end of the stadium with seats. Then maybe new press boxes, but do something with this money we have now to get the stadium over 70,000.
 
HoopsTournament said:
Interesting post I found on Facebook. Not sure of the source.
Click to expand...

Hi folks. Just a UC fan lurking about. Source for this is a poster on the Cincinnati 24/7 forum. Can't speak to his reliability but he is generally viewed as someone with "insider" information. Best of luck on the football field this fall. Hope to be conference mates in the not too distant future!
 
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From the Dude of WV, so take this with a grain of salt:

So my Big 12 source initiated contact via email - something he rarely does - to warn me about being so dire concerning the Big 12's future. He said that both Texas and Oklahoma have a host of issues that tie both to the Big 12 and both have political ties that make leaving problematic. He also said that there is 0% chance that anyone leaves the Big 12 before the GoR expires. He pointed out there will be a change in leadership with everyone involved by the time the GoR expires and there is absolutely no way to predict the environment in 2025.

I also spoke with him about how Big 12 schools would vote for various candidates. I plan to have a spreadsheet to post tomorrow showing how each school has - tentatively at least - told Bowlsby how they would vote.

It's interesting. WVU wants to protect recruiting in Ohio & Fla. Iowa State & Kansas are less likely to vote for strong football programs or schools with weak academics. OU & OkST don't want Houston. TCU & Baylor are against BYU. Texas would vote no on UC but yes on UCF or Memphis. Texas Tech is strongly against UC.

What it shows is there's no consensus. Each school is keeping its interests at the top of its agenda. The only school that seems to put the B12's interests ahead of its own is Kansas State.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Rods79
Those times are long gone but I miss the Big 8. Travel was reasonable furthest trip was Colorado and that was a lot nicer trip than TT.
 
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HoopsTournament said:
Interesting post I found on Facebook. Not sure of the source.
Click to expand...

The Fox vs ESPN info in that post sets the stage where I think a GOR settlement may evolve. Here is why IMO:

ISU, KSU and likely WVU will block any expansion without a GOR extension, 3 schools can block expansion. UT and OU reportedly will not agree to a GOR extension.

If no expansion, the conference will attempt to negotiate the expansion pro rata clauses into additional TV payouts to the existing 10 schools. Fox will want a GOR extension in this scenario in order to retain UT and OU at the end of existing deal in 20204. If UT and OU won't agree to an extended TV deal and GOR extension, then Fox should or will not agree to increased payout to the existing 10 members and are not contractually obligated to do so. In this scenario, there is also no incentive for ESPN to increase payouts, they will retain UT and OU regardless with UT to the ACC (due to LHN) and OU to the SEC.

So the other alternatives are do absolutely nothing (and leave millions of dollars on the table) until the GOR expires or do a GOR settlement on the condition that the 8 public schools are guaranteed spots in the other 4 conferences by ESPN and Fox. This enables UT to the ACC and OU to the SEC now instead of later and enables ESPN to essentially lock up the entire SE from TX to FL and up the Eastern coast through Virgina.

What would Fox get out of it? They need more P4/P5 inventory for FS1, FS1 and for their majority stake in BTN keeping in mind they get the majority rights to the B10 in another year. Moving two schools each from the B12 to the P12 and B10 would enable that without Fox being on the hook to pay for two or four new G5 schools in the B12.

So where would the 8 public schools go to? Here is my best guess:

UT and WVU to the ACC
OU and OKSt to the SEC as a package deal
AAU members KU and ISU to the B10
TT and KSU to the P12

What about TCU and BU? The P12 and B10 won't take them. Maybe the ACC takes TCU as a TX partner for UT but I doubt it.

If there is no GOR extension with 10, 12, or 14 B12 schools then they might as well end it now, do the GOR settlement and the schools and networks will all be better for it in the short and long term.
 
  • Optimistic
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cykadelic2 said:
So the other alternatives are do absolutely nothing (and leave millions of dollars on the table) until the GOR expires or do a GOR settlement on the condition that the 8 public schools are guaranteed spots in the other 4 conferences by ESPN and Fox. This enables UT to the ACC and OU to the SEC now instead of later and enables ESPN to essentially lock up the entire SE from TX to FL and up the Eastern coast through Virgina.
.
Click to expand...

I'd do anything to get this guarantee.

But do the networks have the power to make that guarantee? Dictate to the conferences that they will take schools? I know the networks have a lot of clout, but I doubt they can make that guarantee.

But like I said, I'd take that in a heartbeat!
 
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HoopsTournament said:
I don't see Texas going to the Pac 12. The money gap is will probably be about $30m in 8 years. Is Texas going to the Pac 12 going to make up that gap? They are more likely to go to ACC if they leave.

I also don't see OSU going to SEC if OU goes there. SEC would rather expand their footprint by taking teams from 2 different states instead of 1. So look for West Virginia to be the 2nd.

So IF (still big IF), the Big 12 blows up, the most likely is:

Texas to ACC
OU and WVU to SEC
KU to Big 10

So in that situation, ACC would need another to keep their conference even. Notre Dame could be the 16th, but I don't think they will ever join a conference in football.

Big 10 would need another. Who is left that has the academic profile that fits the Big 10 and is in a power five conference and already draws over 50k right now in football and would be available?

1. Iowa State
2. Pac 12 teams
3 SEC Teams

Pac 12 teams are not likely due to geography
SEC Teams are not likely due to being in the SEC; however, Missouri is not completely out of the question especially if Kansas is one of the teams.

So lets say ISU does not get into the Big 10. The question is whether the Pac 12 wants to join the super conference race and expand. Who would be left for the Pac 12?

1. Big 12 teams (ISU, KSU, OSU, Tech, Baylor, TCU)
2. G5 teams
3. Big 10 and SEC Teams
4. BYU

Big 10 and SEC teams are not going to the Pac 12. The money gap is just too wide. The Pac 12 could add G5 teams, but why aren't they adding them now if they are attractive. So the most attractive are probably Big 12 teams.

1. BYU, Baylor and TCU will not go to the Pac 12. Anyone who suggests that needs to learn a little about the Pac 12. They don't want a religious institution in the conference. Also, Tech and KSU don't fit the academic profile. That leaves OSU and ISU. ISU has the better academic profile. ISU has a strong following in football. They add a new state which increases the footprint (which is a disadvantage of Big 10). Conference won't look at wins/losses, they will look at whether the team has eyeballs. Iowa State has shown that they have more fans than the other options.

So I am not concerned about whether Iowa State will end up in a power conference. I think that Pac 12 will be an option if OU and UT leave. ISU will remain one of the best options.

If you allow some of the G5 schools in the Big 12 now without a GOR and they build the infrastructure up to the level of ISU, then that is when we are in trouble.
Click to expand...

I've been thinking this myself. If the B12 does collapse and the 4 super conferences form, I feel like the Pac would be out worst case scenario. UT and OU will have better options. BYU, TCU, and Baylor aren't getting in for religious reasons. TTU, KSU, and OSU probably don't make the cut for academics. Nobody is leaving the SEC or B1G for the PAC. ACC makes no sense geographically.

I just don't see 4 schools ahead of us for the PAC expanding to 16.
 
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  • Informative
Reactions: jdoggivjc and C.A.H.
HoopsTournament said:
Viewership of potential expansion teams.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16WYluQP5tE2O8KARlx6-MgJB1XfnXnFheqJ5atU4VbE/htmlview?pli=1
Click to expand...

This was a good try, but whoever published had an agenda to show their school in the best light.

IMO these viewership numbers should exclude conference championship and bowl games. The first column just looks like regular season games, but the avg. viewership #'s include all games.

It is hard to just average the #'s because there is great variance if a game is on ABC/CBS/ NBC/FOX vs. ESPN/ESPN2 vs. ESPNU/ESPN3/FOXSP1/FOXRGNL and then based on timeslot- 11am/ 2:30/ Primetime. I am sure that is one of the things the media consultants are paid to do or the Networks will provide input.
 
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