Do a higher percentage of recruits in the top 100 succeed than from out of it? Absolutely.
Give me two dice and I will guess that a 7 comes up every time, you can take whatever other number you want. Over time, the odds play out the same way.
Just because a player is in the top 100 doesn't guarantee anything, but it does make it more likely that they will succeed.
Also, the act of posting an unheralded player who has succeeded as a boost to an an opinion arguing that being highly ranked nationally is not correlated to success is possibly the number one thing I hate the most in all of the message board world.