Bill Connelly has his Big 12 preview out for ESPN based on his SP+ projections.
Even with the change at QB, the Red Raiders are the team to beat, but contenders are out there.
www.espn.com
View attachment 171875
Head coach: Jimmy Rogers (first year)
2026 projection: 64th in SP+, 5.3 average wins (3.2 in the Big 12)
Matt Campbell's 10-year tenure at Iowa State was transformative, with 72 wins and the Cyclones' first two AP top-15 finishes ever. Now we'll see if his departure is just as transformative. Over the past decade, ISU's attendance and investment levels have soared, and it sure seems that the infrastructure has grown quite sound. But until someone else captains this ship well, we don't know anyone else can.
Campbell left for Penn State, and
55 transfers took off as well, about half of them for PSU. No offensive returnee had more than 87 yards from scrimmage (or
any passing yards) or took more than 48 snaps on the offensive line. On defense, 23 players saw at least 100 snaps last season, and five return. None had even 250 snaps.
This is one of the biggest teardowns in the country, and it's up to Rogers to make something of it. ISU could certainly do worse. Rogers went 27-3 in two seasons at South Dakota State, winning an elusive FCS national title in his first year succeeding John Stiegelmeier. And in one season at Washington State, he improved the Cougars from 68th to 61st in SP+ despite his team ranking 130th in returning production.
Most of Wazzu's success last year came from Jesse Bobbit's defense, and Rogers brought both Bobbit and 12 former Cougars, including six linemen, with him. Ends
Isaac Terrell and
Malaki Ta'ase are excellent. Other Group of 6 transfers such as nickel
Malcolm Jones (Jacksonville State) and corner
Keyon Washington (Bowling Green) could be important, and Rogers loaded up on smaller-school stars too, including end
Caden Crawford (South Dakota) and linebacker Tristan Exline (Texas-Permian Basin).
I'm guessing Bobbit can make something pretty solid of the defense, which is good because I'm not sure about the offense. Quarterback
Jaylen Raynor comes to Ames after throwing for 8,694 yards and rushing for 1,707 more at Arkansas State, and the receiving corps could have potential with newcomers such as
Omari Hayes (Tulane) and
Cody Jackson (Tarleton State). Seven new linemen bring starting experience to the table, and grabbing Tarleton State sophomore tackle
Braden Smith might turn out to be astute. But there isn't as much ready-made talent as on the defensive side.