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Big 12 Wrestling Tournament

Final Big 12 Qualifier Count, by Weight (75)
125: 7 (5 allocated + 2 at-large)
133: 8 (7 + 1)
141: 8 (7 + 1)
149: 6 (7 + 1)
157: 6 (5 + 1)
165: 4 (4 + 0)
174: 8 (7 + 1)
184: 10 (8 + 2)
197: 11 (8 + 3)
285: 7 (6 + 1)

Alternates (4):
125 (Anderson, UNI)
133 (Seaton, SDSU)
149 (Edmond, MIZ)
174 (Conley, MIZ)

Big 12 Qualifiers, by Team
10: OSU, ISU
7: ASU, OU
6: MIZ, WVU, SDSU
5: NDSU, UNI, UVU
4: WYO
2: AFA, UNC
0: CBU
 
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Cylife said:
IM putting gaitan in this grouping over 157 because if he has a moderate or worse concussion he’s not going to make it to AA
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MJ definitely could do it with the right draw.

I think we have 3 that are near locks at hvy, 97, and 41. Then we have guys that are close but borderline at 25, 57, 74.

49, 65, 84 are unlikely but not impossivleZ

33 would be the biggest shock of the tournament, but he’s tough and can win some matches.
 
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crablegs said:
MJ definitely could do it with the right draw.

I think we have 3 that are near locks at hvy, 97, and 41. Then we have guys that are close but borderline at 25, 57, 74.

49, 65, 84 are unlikely but not impossivleZ

33 would be the biggest shock of the tournament, but he’s tough and can win some matches.
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I’m worried that 84 is going to be in a Bockman situation.
 
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Descending order of likelihood (pre seeding):
197
285
141
157
125
149
165
174
184
133

I think we probably get 5 AA, although likely some good and bad surprises mixed in there. 133/184 feel like absolute long shots. Wouldn’t be too surprised to get 1 of Euton/gaitan. Get 4-5 out of the rest.
 
Pre-NCAA seeds my thoughts are this.

125: expecting somewhere around a 10-12 seed, and hoping for low AA finish. Think he’s going to be in the R12 and hope he can finish strong.

133: depending on health he can win some matches and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was in R16, but I am sure he will get a horrendous seed with a tough path.

141: expecting an AA finish at minimum, hoping for semis, which would likely mean a shot at Mendez which is an uphill battle obviously.

149: I think he could finish anywhere from 5th to R16, just hope he’s on the AA side of that range. Dresser didn’t like his fire, a little concerning. B12 tourney really hurt his seed. 12-15 range.

157: hoping for an AA finish but this weight is so good and Vinny is banged up. Hope he doesn’t get dinged too bad for seeding but probably drops to the 10-12 range.

165: hoping he can at least make BR for a shot at AA’ng. He seems to beat the guys he should beat and finally got that highly ranked win and is wrestling well. Should be around 12-14 seed.

174: almost identical to my thoughts at 165 above. Similar seeding and a guy that’s wrestling well right now.

184: I think Dean is really hurt so I’m not expecting much here. If he’s healthy, he was looking so good before the re-injure and would be a BR/low AA threat.

197: hoping he can make it to the title. Will need to win a few Merrill/Novak type matches to get there. At minimum should AA.

285: Very similar to 197. At minimum AA but my expectations are title contender, he’s that good. Guys are going to try to slow it down to ride outs or 1 takedown so he will need to separate if he can.
 
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Anyone want to take a shot on the Matrix at 97? I’m not entirely sure how it all works, but here are some thoughts.

H2H - haven’t met so 0 points.
Quality wins - don’t know exactly how this one works, but I think Elam has many more higher ranked wins than Barr. Will go 15-5 for Elam.
Rank - goes to Barr 10-0
Conference finish - same so no points
Common opponents - think this is a wash too.
RPI - this will likely be the deciding factor, can Rocky get one now?
 
CycloneCarl5 said:
I’m just talking 157 for right now because he was talking about Vinny’s seed.

With that that I think 197 would be in a good spot at 1 but HWT could get interesting, you have Marisola, AJ, and Taye. Anyway you look at it it will be tough I guess, it is nationals lol
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I think Bastida should have a pretty uneventful path to the semis. Hell tech any HWT outside the top 7-8 and we’ll all be on the edge of our seat once he’s in a battle with a top 6 guy and above.
 
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TheJackWePack5 said:
Do you mean just for 157 or in general?

Because I feel like 197 and 285 being the 2 and 1 seed will be in great spots?
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I’m just talking 157 for right now because he was talking about Vinny’s seed.

With that that I think 197 would be in a good spot at 1 but HWT could get interesting, you have Marisola, AJ, and Taye. Anyway you look at it it will be tough I guess, it is nationals lol
 
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Cylife said:
I think Bastida should have a pretty uneventful path to the semis. Hell tech any HWT outside the top 7-8 and we’ll all be on the edge of our seat once he’s in a battle with a top 6 guy and above.
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I don’t disagree with you but Amos gave him fits this year and Taye looks pretty good ending the year. Then if he’s on the same side as AJ, that’s a match I don’t like
 
TheJackWePack5 said:
Pre-NCAA seeds my thoughts are this.

125: expecting somewhere around a 10-12 seed, and hoping for low AA finish. Think he’s going to be in the R12 and hope he can finish strong.

133: depending on health he can win some matches and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was in R16, but I am sure he will get a horrendous seed with a tough path.

141: expecting an AA finish at minimum, hoping for semis, which would likely mean a shot at Mendez which is an uphill battle obviously.

149: I think he could finish anywhere from 5th to R16, just hope he’s on the AA side of that range. Dresser didn’t like his fire, a little concerning. B12 tourney really hurt his seed. 12-15 range.

157: hoping for an AA finish but this weight is so good and Vinny is banged up. Hope he doesn’t get dinged too bad for seeding but probably drops to the 10-12 range.

165: hoping he can at least make BR for a shot at AA’ng. He seems to beat the guys he should beat and finally got that highly ranked win and is wrestling well. Should be around 12-14 seed.

174: almost identical to my thoughts at 165 above. Similar seeding and a guy that’s wrestling well right now.

184: I think Dean is really hurt so I’m not expecting much here. If he’s healthy, he was looking so good before the re-injure and would be a BR/low AA threat.

197: hoping he can make it to the title. Will need to win a few Merrill/Novak type matches to get there. At minimum should AA.

285: Very similar to 197. At minimum AA but my expectations are title contender, he’s that good. Guys are going to try to slow it down to ride outs or 1 takedown so he will need to separate if he can.
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You will be low on at least 50% of these for ISU.
 
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TheJackWePack5 said:
Pre-NCAA seeds my thoughts are this.

125: expecting somewhere around a 10-12 seed, and hoping for low AA finish. Think he’s going to be in the R12 and hope he can finish strong.

133: depending on health he can win some matches and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was in R16, but I am sure he will get a horrendous seed with a tough path.

141: expecting an AA finish at minimum, hoping for semis, which would likely mean a shot at Mendez which is an uphill battle obviously.

149: I think he could finish anywhere from 5th to R16, just hope he’s on the AA side of that range. Dresser didn’t like his fire, a little concerning. B12 tourney really hurt his seed. 12-15 range.

157: hoping for an AA finish but this weight is so good and Vinny is banged up. Hope he doesn’t get dinged too bad for seeding but probably drops to the 10-12 range.

165: hoping he can at least make BR for a shot at AA’ng. He seems to beat the guys he should beat and finally got that highly ranked win and is wrestling well. Should be around 12-14 seed.

174: almost identical to my thoughts at 165 above. Similar seeding and a guy that’s wrestling well right now.

184: I think Dean is really hurt so I’m not expecting much here. If he’s healthy, he was looking so good before the re-injure and would be a BR/low AA threat.

197: hoping he can make it to the title. Will need to win a few Merrill/Novak type matches to get there. At minimum should AA.

285: Very similar to 197. At minimum AA but my expectations are title contender, he’s that good. Guys are going to try to slow it down to ride outs or 1 takedown so he will need to separate if he can.
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We need the big 3 to be as high as possible, and Yonger to win it. A couple guys need to sneak on to the podium. Putting on a bonus point show day one could go a long way to maybe making up for a couple guys battling injury. We need more than just Yonger destroying guys in bad matchups.
 
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