2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

Hilton being #22 is enough to tell me these metrics aren't worth much.
The beatdown of Purdue is also helping our away metrics, although not sure how much that is offset by Kansas and Cincinnati. If you're a good away team in the metrics, your home vs away advantage becomes limited.
 
The beatdown of Purdue is also helping our away metrics, although not sure how much that is offset by Kansas and Cincinnati. If you're a good away team in the metrics, your home vs away advantage becomes limited.
Part of the reason I don't care much for these metrics. People aren't robots. You're not getting the same thing out of them every second.
 
Nebraska is weirdly obsessed with attendance figures (see their football "sellout" streak)
Exactly, I’m assuming the same methods are being used for their basketball attendance records. Count tickets sold and not tickets scanned to keep numbers up. They would sell them to businesses for like $5 to count them as sold but it was a sham. I’m sure the new facility is cool and all but how else do you increase attendance by thousands when your team at that time continued to be very mid.
 

This isn't some great insight, but IF Iowa State takes care of business in the next four—NOT a given, Kansas State in particular scares me—I think their seeding would hinge on the Kansas and Houston games. As of today I think a lot of committee members would consider Kansas to be in a tier below Iowa State's—you can't get swept by them. Losing to Houston wouldn't necessarily hurt you, but besting them would show that you can still beat the big boys post-Purdue. I'm putting an "L" next to Arizona in pen. I'd love to be surprised, and I know a lot can change in a week, let alone a month. But I don't see a world in which Iowa State beats all the teams it's favored against, wins out at home, AND wins at Arizona. The good news is as long as you don't get embarrassed I don't think the committee will really even care that that game happened. also chalking up BYU as a loss. They're just Otz's kryptonite.

So, 14-4 is in play. Torvik projects 13-5, which is what I'd bet on if I had to. But all I really wanted to say is I'm starting to zero in on those two games in mid February
 
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Good News — Iowa State is in the trapezoid and the “top” of college basketball is balanced. Lotta teams could F4 or win a title this season. But the Bad News — nobody is running away with it (Iowa State included) and MBB is very top-heavy. I many previous years, this Iowa State team would have ~5 peers instead of ~15 to 20 or so.
 
Good News — Iowa State is in the trapezoid and the “top” of college basketball is balanced. Lotta teams could F4 or win a title this season. But the Bad News — nobody is running away with it (Iowa State included) and MBB is very top-heavy. I many previous years, this Iowa State team would have ~5 peers instead of ~15 to 20 or so.
Nothing you just said is incorrect. However, I feel like this program has moved past the point where we need lucky matchups in the tourney to accomplish our goals. Our latest wins aren't coming from fortuitous matchups. They're coming from the fact that we finally have enough talent and chemistry to control our own destiny (guardian).
 
Almost like the are gaming attendance numbers but who would do these things? Who would even know how?

Yep. Trusting Nebraska and their attendance figures is like trusting that raisin oatmeal cookie that pretends to be chocolate chip.

Everyone knows their FB sellout record is a crock of ****. Everyone know Nebraska is nothing more than a women's volleyball school.
 
In all my days watching college basketball not ONCE has Nebraska been discussed as one of the toughest venues in the sport. Not one single time.
Bro, it's quicksand in there. Trust us. ;)

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Fred is from Nebraska originally (born in Lincoln), they moved to Ames when he was very young but I would guess he still has family there, maybe this is a factor in him seemingly being very content there.

This is also the first year they've been very good during his tenure. He probably hasn't had a lot of opportunities to move elsewhere. Before this year it had been over 10 years since he coached a team to any major success.
Hell he took a contract restructure a couple of years ago to keep his job. I guess it's fine Fred is having success at Nebby, but he left ISU quite a while ago so as long as he doesn't get in the way of ISU BB success. I don't care how he does, hell that Bulls contract set him and his kids for life. The Nebby money is just icing on the cake.