My CFP predictor

[StLouisClone]

It won't take anything super crazy for ISU to make the playoffs. It won't be easy but we just need all 4 of the following:

- ISU to beat OU (50%)
- Cincinnati to lose to Tulsa in 1 of their 2 games (75%)
- Alabama to beat Florida (90%)
- Ohio State to lose to Michigan or Northwestern (20%)

If these 4 things happen, ISU will be in the CFP as the 4 seed. We will edge out Florida (who won't get a 2nd chance to play Bama), Texas A&M (ditto) and Northwestern (who lost to a bad Michigan State). I give it a 7% chance of happening.

 

[cyinne]

@Dale Could you run a model to see what the percentages of this stuff would happen? I know it isn’t as easy as it doesn’t have a set of rules to follow like it would for a conference champ game.

 

[xboxfever]

Even if all those things happened, they will take a 1 loss OSU team over a 2 loss ISU 10/10 times.

 

[IcSyU]

There is no way there's a 20% chance of OSU losing to NW or Michigan. I'd say it's about 5% and 90% chance of it being absolute ass kickings handed out.

 

[StLouisClone]

Even if all those things happened, they will take a 1 loss OSU team over a 2 loss ISU 10/10 times.

No way they would take OSU over Northwestern if they just got beat by them.

 

[StLouisClone]

There is no way there's a 20% chance of OSU losing to NW or Michigan. I'd say it's about 5% and 90% chance of it being absolute ass kickings handed out.

You might be right although i wouldn't count Michigan out.

 

[jctisu]

No way they would take OSU over Northwestern if they just got beat by them.

Tell that to Penn State a few years ago who beat Ohio State, won the division Ohio State played in and the conference Ohio State played in. Penn State did have one more loss but it was the moment I was assured the CFP was a joke. Why play the games at that point? Wasn’t like taking a 8-4 team over 1-loss OSU, as I believe Penn State was 10-2 or 11-2.

Note the first time I had a hunch this thing was a joke was Ohio State jumping TCU in the initial CFP.

 

[DarkStar]

Let's just boat race OU.

 

[AuH2O]

It won't take anything super crazy for ISU to make the playoffs. It won't be easy but we just need all 4 of the following:

- ISU to beat OU (50%)
- Cincinnati to lose to Tulsa in 1 of their 2 games (75%)
- Alabama to beat Florida (90%)
- Ohio State to lose to Michigan or Northwestern (20%)

If these 4 things happen, ISU will be in the CFP as the 4 seed. We will edge out Florida (who won't get a 2nd chance to play Bama), Texas A&M (ditto) and Northwestern (who lost to a bad Michigan State). I give it a 7% chance of happening.

Agree with everything except that we would jump A&M. Don’t think it would happen. I think there’s a better chance of jumping Cincinnati even if they win out. I think we need an OSU loss and ND to beat Clemson again.

 

[AppleCornCy]

I think we need to blow out Oklahoma, Cincinnati to lose to Tulsa, Florida to lose to Alabama, and Texas A&M to lose to Ole Miss or Tennessee. That would get us to #5. Then we would need something funky with the top 4. I'm not sure Clemson losing to Notre Dame again would be enough unless it's a blowout, and then still maybe not. Probably would need Ohio State to lose to Michigan or Northwestern.

 

[AuH2O]

No way they would take OSU over Northwestern if they just got beat by them.

OSU is out if they lose either remaining game. A&M and Georgia are winning out. Miami has UNC and GT, so good shot at winning out. Either OU or ISU are winning out. Cincy has a good shot at winning out.
At a minimum the SEC and ACC champ are going. If Clemson wins a close game ND is also in.

 

[StLouisClone]

It won't take anything super crazy for ISU to make the playoffs. It won't be easy but we just need all 4 of the following:

- ISU to beat OU (50%)
- Cincinnati to lose to Tulsa in 1 of their 2 games (75%)
- Alabama to beat Florida (90%)
- Ohio State to lose to Michigan or Northwestern (20%)

If these 4 things happen, ISU will be in the CFP as the 4 seed. We will edge out Florida (who won't get a 2nd chance to play Bama), Texas A&M (ditto) and Northwestern (who lost to a bad Michigan State). I give it a 7% chance of happening.

Well, we can already cross one of those items off my list. Cincinnati doesn't need to lose to Tulsa anymore. Not sure yet what to make of the Ohio State - Michigan cancellation. All in all, I give us a 10% chance of making the playoffs.