Usually see one of these out there for basketball and was curious if he did one for football too. Would be fun to where projections are at right now
MRed Football Predictor Machine?
- Thread starter CoKane
- Start date
Sorry I don’t remember the username but where’s the dude with the game simulator predictions? I have always enjoyed his updates each week in the past few years. It’s really nice when we are in the mix but even if we weren’t I’d still enjoy the simulation predictions.
I never bothered to do a football seeding website because seeding isn't quite as important in football than basketball (since there's no conference tournament in football, only a championship game) but that's something I might consider for the future. I use Massey for basketball results and he has football results as well, so it wouldn't be horribly difficult.
The game simulator stuff is done by @Dale. I agree we need to get him to post some of that now that we're 3 games into the conference schedule. Looks like he hasn't been online for a while, but I know him personally so I'll bug him about it.
The game simulator stuff is done by @Dale. I agree we need to get him to post some of that now that we're 3 games into the conference schedule. Looks like he hasn't been online for a while, but I know him personally so I'll bug him about it.
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It feels good to be wanted! (Although I dare say Iowa State deserves more credit for the interest than me.)
Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.
Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.
Iowa St.: 49.2% (27.2% 1st, 22.0% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 45.9% (27.1% 1st, 18.8% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 43.7% (23.1% 1st, 20.6% 2nd)
Texas: 16.6% (7.0% 1st, 9.6% 2nd)
Baylor: 14.9% (6.4% 1st, 8.5% 2nd)
West Virginia: 12.7% (4.5% 1st, 8.2% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 12.1% (3.5% 1st, 8.6% 2nd)
TCU: 4.8% (1.2% 1st, 3.7% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Kansas: c'mon
And here are the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 4% chance of happening:
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 16.2%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 15.7%
Kansas St./Oklahoma St.: 13.3%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 4.8%
Oklahoma St./West Virginia: 4.5%
Iowa St./Texas: 4.3%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 4.2%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 4.0%
(Slight boring caveat: The program only goes through the first two tiebreakers, since the third tiebreaker involves points and would be a pain in the butt to model. That said, the first two tiebreakers -- and situations with no tiebreaker necessary -- covered 99.35% of the simulations, so the odds wouldn’t change much.)
And finally, here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record and their chances of making the championship game at that record:
ISU record chances:
3-7: 0.8%
4-6: 6.7%
5-5: 21.2%
6-4: 32.8%
7-3: 26.3%
8-2: 10.5%
9-1: 1.7%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
5-5: 1.0%
6-4: 36.8%
7-3: 94.0%
8-2: 100.0%
9-1: 100.0%
Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.
Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.
Iowa St.: 49.2% (27.2% 1st, 22.0% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 45.9% (27.1% 1st, 18.8% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 43.7% (23.1% 1st, 20.6% 2nd)
Texas: 16.6% (7.0% 1st, 9.6% 2nd)
Baylor: 14.9% (6.4% 1st, 8.5% 2nd)
West Virginia: 12.7% (4.5% 1st, 8.2% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 12.1% (3.5% 1st, 8.6% 2nd)
TCU: 4.8% (1.2% 1st, 3.7% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Kansas: c'mon
And here are the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 4% chance of happening:
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 16.2%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 15.7%
Kansas St./Oklahoma St.: 13.3%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 4.8%
Oklahoma St./West Virginia: 4.5%
Iowa St./Texas: 4.3%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 4.2%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 4.0%
(Slight boring caveat: The program only goes through the first two tiebreakers, since the third tiebreaker involves points and would be a pain in the butt to model. That said, the first two tiebreakers -- and situations with no tiebreaker necessary -- covered 99.35% of the simulations, so the odds wouldn’t change much.)
And finally, here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record and their chances of making the championship game at that record:
ISU record chances:
3-7: 0.8%
4-6: 6.7%
5-5: 21.2%
6-4: 32.8%
7-3: 26.3%
8-2: 10.5%
9-1: 1.7%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
5-5: 1.0%
6-4: 36.8%
7-3: 94.0%
8-2: 100.0%
9-1: 100.0%
I think the only scenario we don't get in while losing 2 more is if we lost to KSU and OSU and they both won out (besides one of them beating the other).
So basically get to seven wins and that’s a magic number. Not that this is a good idea but we have 3 and really we have 4 if you count KU. So where are the 3 more wins gonna come from? BU, WV, and there’s gotta be atleast one in the rest of UT, OSU and Kstate.
When you look at it this way, you feel damn good about it.
When you look at it this way, you feel damn good about it.
KSU would be my guess...although we do play Texas and OSU close no matter the location under Campbell.
You would like to think so. But I am never gonna feel good about that one. If I had to bet, I would say UT. They look really like they have some real problems with their D.
