Milan Momcilovic commits to Kentucky
- Thread starter JakeBrend
- Start date
TJ made the right call moving on early imo
For those without X:
Why is Momcilovic a bad fit?Defensively, Momcilovic is thin for a 4-man, but too slow to guard SEC threes consistently. He played alongside elite defensively personnel at Iowa State. Diallo + Wilkins + Moreno is nowhere close to Lipsey + Toure + Jefferson on that end.Momcilovic's rebounding numbers are non-existent. This is largely because he played with some elite rebounders at ISU and didn't have to crash the glass. But Momcilovic, Moreno, and Kepnang all had negative defensive rebounding on/offs at their respective stops last year. Ndiaye is young and very thin.Momcilovic is an absurd spacer, but there were also just two players with 300+ shots in the country last year who had a lower rim rate, both small guards. He is extremely one-note. This is of course fine if you're playing on Iowa State and its 44% rim rate to compliment his game, but Kentucky just doesn't have downhill guys to drive and kick and create space for Momcilovic. Moreno is the only projected rotation player who ranked in the 60th% or better in rim rate for their respective position. Because Diallo and Wilkins are more shot creators, their passing largely consists of dump-offs vs. drive and kicks. Both were below the 30th% amongst all guards in % of total assists coming via 3-pointers. This is something that downhill guards thrive in.Lastly, I just think Momcilovic and Ndiaye is a very bad fit. Ndiaye's 30% rim rate is awful for his physical profile, and his brutal 0.5 AST:TO suggests his on-ball feel is super minimal. Between that and the rebounding, I don't think both can play together.In summary: This Kentucky roster is not good enough defensively and on the glass to compensate for Momcilovic's flaws, and not good enough at downhill attacking to create great shots for Momcilovic to stay uber-efficient. It's a tough combo for someone who will be one of the five highest-paid players in the country. Had Kentucky been able to land Milan FIRST, I think this roster would look somewhat different.That said - if either Diallo/Wilkins can up their rim touch frequency that + Momcilovic + Moreno (who I think absolutely rocks) remains a really strong nucleus.
For those without X:
Why is Momcilovic a bad fit?Defensively, Momcilovic is thin for a 4-man, but too slow to guard SEC threes consistently. He played alongside elite defensively personnel at Iowa State. Diallo + Wilkins + Moreno is nowhere close to Lipsey + Toure + Jefferson on that end.Momcilovic's rebounding numbers are non-existent. This is largely because he played with some elite rebounders at ISU and didn't have to crash the glass. But Momcilovic, Moreno, and Kepnang all had negative defensive rebounding on/offs at their respective stops last year. Ndiaye is young and very thin.Momcilovic is an absurd spacer, but there were also just two players with 300+ shots in the country last year who had a lower rim rate, both small guards. He is extremely one-note. This is of course fine if you're playing on Iowa State and its 44% rim rate to compliment his game, but Kentucky just doesn't have downhill guys to drive and kick and create space for Momcilovic. Moreno is the only projected rotation player who ranked in the 60th% or better in rim rate for their respective position. Because Diallo and Wilkins are more shot creators, their passing largely consists of dump-offs vs. drive and kicks. Both were below the 30th% amongst all guards in % of total assists coming via 3-pointers. This is something that downhill guards thrive in.Lastly, I just think Momcilovic and Ndiaye is a very bad fit. Ndiaye's 30% rim rate is awful for his physical profile, and his brutal 0.5 AST:TO suggests his on-ball feel is super minimal. Between that and the rebounding, I don't think both can play together.In summary: This Kentucky roster is not good enough defensively and on the glass to compensate for Momcilovic's flaws, and not good enough at downhill attacking to create great shots for Momcilovic to stay uber-efficient. It's a tough combo for someone who will be one of the five highest-paid players in the country. Had Kentucky been able to land Milan FIRST, I think this roster would look somewhat different.That said - if either Diallo/Wilkins can up their rim touch frequency that + Momcilovic + Moreno (who I think absolutely rocks) remains a really strong nucleus.
Many are speculating it's 2 years for Milan and Audi, assuming the 5 yr eligibility rule gets passed.
It’s not just SEC 3s. If he’s not in a system like Iowa State’s defense, he is going to get absolutely roasted by any athletic 3 man. Kentucky plays a horrible defensive style for MM. it will be hard to watch for UK fans, unless they make drastic changes.
Interesting. Regarding MM's rim rate, IMO at ISU he was basically relegated to 3pt shooting by the offensive scheme. The post was mostly JJ's domain, and the screening that ISU did for MM was usually to get him open for a 3pt shot, and not to setup a mismatch with a smaller defender. We never really saw whether he had any kind of inside/post-up game, or whether he could wheel-and-deal on a smaller player in a mismatch (inside or outside).
We'll see how UK uses him next year. If they don't have dominant post, maybe Pope will run some things to get MM's rim rate up.
This is in no way a declaration of rooting vs not-rooting, but this analysis seems spot on. Milan needed a lot of setup to get loose. That said, when he is loose, he can go nuclear. But do I trust Mark Pope and the run-back of "Buy Everything and Pray" at UK to unlock that? I wouldn't bet your you mortgage on it.
It began. A couple years ago
I’ve been advocating not to overspend on Milan for two years on X. I’m shocked he was able to still perform with all that pressure last season!
I doubt we saw all of what Milan can do imo
But in the role he played, getting an actual 3&D wing, for much less than $6 million would be a net win imo. Add a more rebounding too, and great ROI
Here you are again, knowing what Milan feels better than Milan!
demoncore1031
Well-Known Member
I think a lot of people are upset because of the school he chose. The people that are saying they want him to fail at Kentucky, what would their opinion be if he had ended up at a non blue blood like Gonzaga or St John's?
I personally am not bothered by his decision. It sucks but it is what it is. Like you said, testing the NBA waters was the right choice. I don't think he could have improved his draft stock that much if he had stayed in Ames but this year is a deep draft and the Kentucky name probably improves his draft stock a little bit. Even if they are not an elite program any longer they still have a rich history of getting guys into the NBA.
I won't root for Milan at Kentucky but certainly won't root against him.
And this is the part I don't understand. What difference does it matter if he chose UK or 'zag or St. John's? Just be thankful it wasn't 'zona.
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Pope wanted Mommy so he could register a win. He needed the fan base to calm down a bit. So he went hard after the number 1 portal guy. Also, He could not lose a recruit at this point at Kentucky to the rival Louisville. It would be like us sucking for a few years and losing big recruits to Iowa. It would not sit well.
Would you mind expounding on their defense a bit? I like learning about basketball as football is my main area of expertise.
Whatever pressure Milan has felt at Iowa State will pale in comparison to what he's going to feel at blue blood Kentucky when they're paying him $6 million.
demoncore1031
Well-Known Member
I agree. But I think for a lot of people it's just hatred of blue blood schools or maybe hatred of Kentucky in particular. I hate the SEC and probably won't watch or follow Kentucky at all but I could see myself cheering for Milan if he had went to a Gonzaga or St. John's.
To put it plainly, they try to run a defense similar to Iowa State (blitzing doubles, heavy pressure) with worse defenders and worse rotation. Iowa State could cover up Milan’s poor defense and rebounding with guys like Tamin, Toure, Gilbert, Jones, etc…Kentucky doesn’t have that. It’s not that the guys are incapable of doing it, they obviously have very high level athletes. Pope just isn’t the guy to demand how TJ demands it and if it’s not ran like Iowa State, it works fine against the low major teams, but will be not great against teams closer to their level.
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