This early rankings are meaningless since we haven't really gotten into conference games.
With a 12 team playoff I see:
- 4 Big10
- 4 SEC
- 3 Big12/ACC
- 1 AAC/MWC
But by 2030ish I fully expect there will be a 16 team playoff.
I think you are close here, I think it will be something like that, if the conference makeup stays where it is currently. If there is a big shakeup in the makeup then its all up in the air.
My feeling is:
- 3-4 Big10
- 3-4 SEC
- 3-4 Big12/ACC
- 1 G5
I think on an average year those conferences would get 3 in, on a good year for them, 4.
I don’t think we will see a 16 team playoff, it will completely devalue the regular season and let’s face it, even in a 12 team playoff only a handful of those teams even have a shot.
I dont know. I think it "COULD" go to 16, but I dont see it going above that, not sure it happens by 2030 though. You cant really say that the regular seasons wont matter. I mean does the seasons not matter in other sports with tourneys? Basketball? Baseball? etc. How about the FCS their season still matters, High school here in Iowa, I would say the season matters even though 2+ get to the playoffs every year, out of each district.
To me 8 or 16 have always been the sweet spot. 12 feels awkward and gives unfair advantage to some. Although with 4 Power conferences, if they give the byes to the 4 P4 champions it at least makes a little sense. But with more realignment and more changes that gets more difficult.
I do agree even with 16 there is always going to be favorites and probable winners, but they still have to play the games, and we always see underdogs winning games every year.
You can go through years and see the underdog wins at times.