I build a Monte Carlo simulation of the Battle 4 Atlantic tournament's outcomes using the Bart Torvik projections of the individual match-ups. Here are some interesting outcomes of the 20,000 simulations overall and for Iowa State specifically...
CHANCE TO WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP
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DISTRIBUTION OF IOWA STATE'S OVERALL FINISH
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DISTRIBUTION OF IOWA STATE'S OPPONENTS
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100% chance of playing Michigan
100% chance of either Alabama or North Carolina
100% chance (cumulatively) of one of the other four participants
31% chance of a rematch with SMU, 24% chance of a rematch with Seton Hall
55% chance of having a repeat non-con opponent this season
Any other questions? Just ask. Thanks!