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***Official ISU Bowl Predictions***

cyIclSoneU

cyIclSoneU

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Apr 7, 2016
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cycloneG said:
Wouldn't Baylor go to the Sugar Bowl in this scenario?
Click to expand...

Yes, the CCG loser goes to Sugar if the winner is in CFP.

Seems weird to call the least complicated path one that has OU in the playoff and OSU arguably bumping ISU down a spot. It’s more likely if OU wins the CCG but does not make the playoff. Then they are in Sugar and Baylor would go Alamo. If the next best records are ISU and OSU at 8-4 (meaning Texas at 7-5), I think we get the Camping World spot. That’s a pretty simple of doing it.

Things can get more interesting if Baylor and Oklahoma both go 11-1. They might both make NY6 bowls that way even if neither make the playoff. That could leave the door open for ISU to the Alamo, although in that instance it’s possible they would take OSU since we were just there. Then we are back in Camping World.
 
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BoxsterCy

BoxsterCy

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cyclones500 said:
My estimated, least-complicated path to Camping World:

1. ISU wins out (essential)
2. OU finishes 12-1, climbs into CFP
3. Baylor to Cotton Bowl (auto-bid)
4. Oklahoma State to Alamo [OSU a game behind Iowa State after loss to OU, but owns head-to-head vs. ISU, and ISU went to Alamo last season (depending how those details are assessed)]
5. Iowa State to Camping World
Click to expand...

Thing is the bowls picks are in order but there is no order to who they get to pick. Head to head and such mean something to us but not to the bowls. This works both for and against us. For = ISU good crowds and tickets sales. Against = not a "name team" for TV and such but that is likely getting better. Against = not a regional/local team for any of the bowls as we are sitting up in frozen Iowa with only Memphis anywhere near us.

Once you get below Alamo I just judge bowls on locale and weather, cause winter and the remaining 400 bowls with their goofy ass names aren't marquee bowls, just post season exhibition. :oops:
 
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Cat Stevens

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cyIclSoneU said:
Yes, the CCG loser goes to Sugar if the winner is in CFP.

Seems weird to call the least complicated path one that has OU in the playoff and OSU arguably bumping ISU down a spot. It’s more likely if OU wins the CCG but does not make the playoff. Then they are in Sugar and Baylor would go Alamo. If the next best records are ISU and OSU at 8-4 (meaning Texas at 7-5), I think we get the Camping World spot. That’s a pretty simple of doing it.

Things can get more interesting if Baylor and Oklahoma both go 11-1. They might both make NY6 bowls that way even if neither make the playoff. That could leave the door open for ISU to the Alamo, although in that instance it’s possible they would take OSU since we were just there. Then we are back in Camping World.
Click to expand...


San Antonio would love to have Iowa State back. They made $54 million the week of the alamo bowl.
 
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cyclones500

cyclones500

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cycloneG said:
Wouldn't Baylor go to the Sugar Bowl in this scenario?
Click to expand...

Yes, I think Sugar is correct or at least the "default" -- I might have checked the wrong tie-in.

I edited my post.

What might've happened, I was checking some early post-week 12 projections out of curiosity, one of them may have OU and BU both as NY6 so OU would take Sugar slot.
 
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cyclones500

cyclones500

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cyIclSoneU said:
Seems weird to call the least complicated path one that has OU in the playoff and OSU arguably bumping ISU down a spot. It’s more likely if OU wins the CCG but does not make the playoff. Then they are in Sugar and Baylor would go Alamo. If the next best records are ISU and OSU at 8-4 (meaning Texas at 7-5), I think we get the Camping World spot. That’s a pretty simple of doing it.
Click to expand...

"Least complicated" maybe isn't the best descriptor, I didn't want to say "simplest" or "easiest" because OU doesn't have an inside track to CFP, obviously. Basically my premise was the higher OU/BU can stay in the order, ISU would get best boostrap assuming can finish 8-4. Both OU/BU in NY6 accomplish the same thing, I just wouldn't count on Baylor getting into it without winning either regular season or Big 12 title game.

EDIT: "maybe isn't" -- -not maybe "is" as I initially posted.
 
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cyclonepower

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Oct 5, 2006
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cyclones500 said:
"Least complicated" maybe is the best descriptor, I didn't want to say "simplest" or "easiest" because OU doesn't have an inside track to CFP, obviously. Basically my premise was the higher OU/BU can stay in the order, ISU would get best boostrap assuming can finish 8-4. Both OU/BU in NY6 accomplish the same thing, I just wouldn't count on Baylor getting into it without winning either regular season or Big 12 title game.
Click to expand...
If the CWB is against WF, okie st can have it
 
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jdcyclone19

jdcyclone19

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Apr 14, 2017
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cyIclSoneU said:
Yes, the CCG loser goes to Sugar if the winner is in CFP.

Seems weird to call the least complicated path one that has OU in the playoff and OSU arguably bumping ISU down a spot. It’s more likely if OU wins the CCG but does not make the playoff. Then they are in Sugar and Baylor would go Alamo. If the next best records are ISU and OSU at 8-4 (meaning Texas at 7-5), I think we get the Camping World spot. That’s a pretty simple of doing it.

Things can get more interesting if Baylor and Oklahoma both go 11-1. They might both make NY6 bowls that way even if neither make the playoff. That could leave the door open for ISU to the Alamo, although in that instance it’s possible they would take OSU since we were just there. Then we are back in Camping World.
Click to expand...

If I’m not mistaken, it is not possible for Baylor and OU both to go 11-1 entering the bowl season, if they both win out they’ll be in the XII championship, one will be 12-1, and the other 11-2. Right?
 
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cyIclSoneU

cyIclSoneU

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jdcyclone19 said:
If I’m not mistaken, it is not possible for Baylor and OU both to go 11-1 entering the bowl season, if they both win out they’ll be in the XII championship, one will be 12-1, and the other 11-2. Right?
Click to expand...

You're right, I am wondering if whichever team is 11-2 would still make an NY6 bowl.

Probably not. The non-playoff NY6 bowls this year are Rose, Orange, Sugar, and Cotton so there are a lot of conference tie-ins. In fact, I think there would be only 1 possible opportunity for an at-large Big 12 team - against the best G5 team in the Cotton Bowl - and it's unlikely that an 11-2 team coming off a loss would get that spot over, say, Penn State or Utah or Florida.

So, I still think the easiest path for ISU to the Camping World Bowl is to win out and have both Texas (at BU and vs Tech) and OSU (at WVU and vs OU) lose at least one game. I think that would be enough.
 
theshadow

theshadow

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cyIclSoneU said:
Facing Notre Dame is more wishful thinking. The ACC's bowl selection goes like this:

*Winner to Orange Bowl.
*Next selection to Citrus Bowl only if Orange Bowl opponent is from B1G.
*Next selection to Camping World Bowl.

And they all get bumped up a notch if Clemson makes the playoff. So the Camping World will end up with anywhere from the ACC's #2 to #4 team. I'm guessing it will be a 9-3 team out of Virginia, Pitt, Virginia Tech, or Wake Forest. Maybe an 8-4 Miami.
Click to expand...

Notre Dame is eligible to jump in anywhere amidst the ACC tie-ins, though.
 
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BigJCy

BigJCy

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dualthreat

dualthreat

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cyIclSoneU said:
You're right, I am wondering if whichever team is 11-2 would still make an NY6 bowl.

Probably not. The non-playoff NY6 bowls this year are Rose, Orange, Sugar, and Cotton so there are a lot of conference tie-ins. In fact, I think there would be only 1 possible opportunity for an at-large Big 12 team - against the best G5 team in the Cotton Bowl - and it's unlikely that an 11-2 team coming off a loss would get that spot over, say, Penn State or Utah or Florida.

So, I still think the easiest path for ISU to the Camping World Bowl is to win out and have both Texas (at BU and vs Tech) and OSU (at WVU and vs OU) lose at least one game. I think that would be enough.
Click to expand...

I think in that scenario, Baylor winning gives the Big 12 its best chance to have two teams in the NY6. Baylor probably isn't a big enough draw if they are coming off a loss and the NY6 bowl reps would probably lean toward a 11-2 Oregon/Utah team that lost their championship. (That's my guess)
 
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