Iowa State Cyclones tight end Stevo Klotz (49) celebrates after runs for a first down against Cincinnati during the third quarter in the week-12 NCAA football at Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in Ames, Iowa. © Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
For the fifth time in the last 95 years and fourth time in the last eight, Iowa State football has won eight games.
If that comes at a level of disappointment for some fans, that’s fair. It’s a product of how the year started as well as how much growth the program has gone through under Matt Campbell.
And the frustration is fair. The team that Iowa State went into the bye week with at 7-0 isn’t the team that showed up in the pair of weeks following it. It may be fair to say that it isn’t the team that showed up in the opening 29 minutes of Saturday’s 17-point win over Cincinnati.
But with two weeks to go, Iowa State still has everything to play for, a trip to the first 12-team playoff included.
Iowa State didn’t look the part of its 7-0 start, nor its 7-2 record during the first portion of that game, but once Cincinnati got the ball with a 10-7 lead and minute left on the clock, junior defensive lineman Domonique Orange was there to flip the script.
Domonique Orange woke these guys up
Orange made three tackles in a row as part of the three-and-out, while grading out as the highest rated player for the Cyclones defense on Pro Football Focus.
A bad punt gave Iowa State the ball on the Cincinnati 38 and Iowa State got three points out of it.
In terms of momentum, that went a long way with the team going to the locker room for the halftime break.
A check on the defense
The linebacking corps got Will McLaughlin and Jack Sadowsky back, but the defensive line room took a hit with the injury to J.R. Singleton at the same time.
Sadowsky played 13 snaps against Kansas, but had a season high 52 snaps this week. McLaughlin mentioned that a low-snap limit was the plan for him going into the game, but he ended up staying on the field for 36.
We likely won’t know the severity of Singleton’s injury until kickoff rolls around in Utah. However, gaining the returning experience at the depleted linebacker spot probably results in a net positive, despite one of the team’s most consistent guys in Singleton having to leave the game.
All things considered, with as hampered as the defense looked against Kansas and another opening drive touchdown for the opposing offense, giving up just 17 points to Cincinnati Saturday was a big W.
K.I.S.S.
The old saying goes – at least how I was taught it growing up: keep it simple, stupid.
Iowa State has rolled out a plethora of complications in its offensive playbook this season. Some of them – like the rollout and touchdown pass to a wide-open Stevo Klotz Saturday – work to perfection.
Others like the set in the second quarter that featured backup quarterback Connor Moberly on the field for a direct snap to fourth string running back Aiden Flora, which was stopped at the line of scrimmage, don’t look as pretty.
There’s plenty of sets that have worked positively and negatively in offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser’s first year at the helm.
Myself and others have called for Iowa State to simplify its playbook earlier in the year, and that may have looked smart at one point this weekend, but I think that was proven wrong.
Iowa State found steady success Saturday with a number of rollouts from Rocco Becht.
While Ben Brahmer was out, Gabe Burkle stepped up and led the team in receiving yards while tying for the most receptions with six.
Not to mention, true freshman Brett Eskildsen grabbing a pair of first down receptions and looking the part of a third wide receiver Iowa State has needed to find all season.
The offensive line graded out with one of its best pass blocking games this year and Dylan Barrett recorded an 89.0 in the category – right on the doorstep of ‘elite.’
Granted, this all comes with the caveat that Cincinnati really didn’t blitz as much as others have against the Iowa State offense. Maybe that allowed the Cyclones to try the things that it did, like the wide receiver pass that was broken up before Eskildsen could make a play on it in the end zone.
There needs to be balance – and the consistency from those pass catchers will need to stick around for it – but Iowa State’s offense found something it had needed to coming into this game that can help itself in the next two. Simple or not.
Around the Big 12
There are 16 games left in the regular season with four contenders remaining to see who will play for a conference championship and holy sh–, these tiebreakers are confusing.
I’m getting ahead of myself…
On Saturday, Arizona State went into Manhattan and dominated Kansas State. The defense had Avery Johnson seeing ghosts in the pocket while Sam Leavitt and Cam Skattebo worked their way down the field eventually taking a 21-0 lead.
On the surface, it’s the little team that could in the Sun Devils proving they’re for real, but for tiebreaker purposes, it was probably the worst case scenario for the Cyclones.
Then, BYU was downed by a 3-6 Kansas team that now looks like its playing the best football in the conference.
I’ll do my best to simplify things going forward – and may have a bigger one later this week, if not on Saturday night.
I’ve had MRed’s scenario machine bookmarked on my laptop since I started college in 2016 and maybe even before that. I love the attention its getting and wanted to link that below:
MRed’s conference tiebreaker machine
Here are some of the best case scenarios – all of which include Iowa State winning out. There’s a slim chance the Cyclones could drop one of these last two games and still make the Big 12 title, but it includes more chaos than I think even the Big 12 is capable of.
If BYU (which goes to Arizona State) and Colorado (which travels to Kansas for Senior day) both lose, Iowa State would be in as the No. 2 seed in a four-way tie taking on Arizona State. If the same happens, and ASU loses to Arizona, the Cyclones are in via a three-way tie with Colorado and BYU.
Another interesting path – if Arizona State beats BYU, but loses its rivalry game against Arizona, the Cyclones are in no matter what.
Iowa State is out in most cases when tying with Arizona State, but when more than two teams are involved, it’s tending to cater to the Cyclones.
There’s also a path that Cyclone Larry posted to Twitter/X, where Kansas State beats Cincinnati, and both Colorado & Texas Tech lose once more in either week, Iowa State would be in.
Feel free to play around with the simulator, and comment on social media or the CF forums any other fun ones, but so long as Iowa State wins against Utah, there will be a path to the Big 12 title game going into the final week.
That’s all fans asked for when I was growing up, and that should be enough to sell those final thousands of seats for senior night against K-State.
