WILLIAMS: ATS Big 12 picks for week 8

Kansas State quarterback Adrian Martinez runs the ball in the third quarter against Iowa State during a NCAA college football game at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa, on Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022.

We have hit two 3-1 weeks in a row and the “take the points in the Big 12” theory will be tested again in week eight. 

Let’s get after it. 

Against the spread recording on the year: 24-20

Kansas at Baylor (-10) — How healthy is Blake Shapen? Reports say his going to play (after a nasty hit to the head vs. West Virginia) and if that’s the case, Baylor is the easy pick to WIN this game. Fading Kansas at this point in the season makes sense (I don’t think they are that good). But I’ll stick with my trend we established a week ago, to primarily take points in picking these games. Ten points are too many. If I knew Shapen was 100 percent and good to go, I’d probably roll with Baylor to cover as I think they are the much better team. 

THE PICK: Baylor 41, Kansas 34

West Virginia at Texas Tech (-6.5) — Can I take the OVER? This is always a tough road trip for West Virginia – its longest in the league. 

THE PICK: Texas Tech 41, West Virginia 31

Texas (-6.5) at Oklahoma State — Feels like a line that doesn’t make a ton of sense, which is usually reason to be suspicious. Iowa State was a pain in Texas’ ass last week. I’m not sure Oklahoma State has the dudes up front to do the same (defensively), however you’ll be hard press to convince me to not take points with the home team. 

THE PICK: Texas 31, Oklahoma State 30 

Kansas State at TCU (-3.5) — This is dumb, because every essence of my Big 12 loving brain is saying to play Kansas State. They limit possessions. Running quarterback. Elite running back. Good defense. I just think TCU is a lot better?!?! Perhaps that’s crappy analysis, but I’m going to roll with my gut and not overthink this. 

THE PICK: TCU 31, Kansas State 21