Jul 16, 2018; Frisco, TX, USA; Iowa State Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell speaks to the media during Big 12 football media days at the Ford Center at the Star. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
I was not able to complete the previews in their full glory due to time and availability constraints, therefore, we move ahead in our game action.
I am going to give a quick hit preview of the final three games with some important considerations, then move into some thoughts about what I hope to see in the 2018 season.
The Baylor game is frightening to me. Baylor is expected to be better as a young team is rebuilding its numbers with talented players under the direction of a talented coach. The frightening part is that Iowa State will likely be favored in this game, yet, Baylor may be pushing for bowl eligibility the same as Iowa State, making for a dangerous game.
Baylor’s strength will be its speed on the outside. Denzel Mims will lead a speedy set of receivers that will threaten deep, a sight we are used to seeing from Baylor. The offensive line should improve, though I believe they will be a lower tier unit in the league. The key for their offensive consistency will be their ability to generate a threat in the run game.
Defensively, Phil Snow is an ultra-aggressive coach. His Temple units were salty and provided relentless pressure on the offense. He has not had the horses at Baylor to implement his scheme-yet. They aren’t there yet, but I expect a defensive improvement and an uptick in pressure.
Iowa State will have to be prepared to exploit the pressure by throwing quickly into vacated zones and mount a competent running game in order to gain a foothold against them. There will be deep opportunities like there were in 2017 and hitting them will be important.
Defensively, Iowa State will need to be disciplined as they will face another quarterback with the ability to extend plays and break down the defense. This is particularly dangerous with Baylor as the speed on the outside can shake loose very quickly. Be it Brewer or McClendon at quarterback, either can extend a play and move the chains with their legs. The task is to keep the QB contained and the receivers from getting behind the safeties.
Iowa State should win this game at home, but it is far from a given. A solid and well-rounded effort will be needed to corral the Bears. Senior leadership in the form of Kyle Kempt, Marcel Spears, and Willie Harvey will be very important. This is another must win if Iowa State is to stay on the upward trajectory.
I am still torn on Texas. I don’t know yet if Tom Herman has the offense sorted out. They will be more efficient than last year, but I am not sold on a performance commensurate with their perceived talent ceiling. However, they will be just as solid on defense as they were in 2017.
The one thing I do know is that Iowa State has had no answer for the Texas defense in the two contests during the Matt Campbell era. Whether Texas is a middling team again or driving for the Big 12 championship game, Iowa State must adjust its play against Texas and find a way to compete on offense.
In two contests, one against a Charlie Strong defense and one against a Todd Orlando defense, Iowa State has managed one touchdown and two field goals. That is it. Anemic may be an appropriate word. Regardless of Texas’ status or record, they pose the largest challenge to the Iowa State offense of any team.
The key to moving the ball is running the ball. Surprise. 98 yards and 10 yards are all that Iowa State has been able to generate in the previous two games. Iowa State needs at least a 125-yard effort in order to remain competitive in this contest. The offensive line is the key to that metric.
Texas has been able to cover Iowa State’s receivers in man coverage leaving them free to blitz and surround the run game with additional players. The 2018 receiving corp offers an opportunity to beat man coverage. In particular, the tight ends and running backs in receiving positions on delays and pop pass concepts.
Iowa State to break through against Texas, they will need to threaten the defense, slow it down, by gaining yards over the pressure and winning match-ups with their tight ends and running backs. That means they will have to deploy play concepts we have not seen in the past. I do not have a feel as to whether those concepts will appear in 2018.
I am expecting a loss in Austin. It can be competitive with some adjustments on offense, but I am wholly uncertain as to whether ISU will deploy, or is capable of deploying, the necessary concepts. This game is an indicator game for me with regard to the program status and an evaluation of the 2018 season. A competitive game will be a good indicator of future prospects, a struggle will indicate the breadth of development still required.
Just win already. Snakebitten, a confundus charm, or lack of confidence. Iowa State has knocked on the door of winning this game for at least the last 4 years while finding a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
There is no mystery here. Kansas State is as constant as the tides. There is no talent gap here, in fact, Iowa State will likely field the more talented roster. It comes down to whether the mental and physical grind of putting together four disciplined quarters of football can be overcome.
The key to beating Kansas State lies in taking away their quarterback’s ability to run the ball effectively. Kansas State’s entire scheme is centered on the quarterback’s ability to gain yards in the running game. Everything revolves and is derivative of that goal. By the 12th game, we will long know whether Iowa State has been adept at doing so.
The defense must play with an eye towards containing the quarterback. The difference this year is the possibility that the secondary can survive in man coverage, therefore, allowing an extra man or two to be utilized in containing and pressuring the quarterback. If Iowa State can do that, then there is an opportunity to gain a winning margin.
Kansas State will be solid on defense, but once again vulnerable to the deep passing game. This is partly due to their concept (see Iowa) and partly due to a lower level of secondary talent. I expect Iowa State to score here and to do so with big plays. Taking shots is important in this game, deploying any high risk plays available will be important. Aggressive play calling and execution will lead to a victory.
I don’t know that anyone can predict a victory for Iowa State here, but it is yet another must-win game. It is time to get a win at home and heat up this burgeoning rivalry.
I have high expectations for the 2018 season. However, those expectations are contingent on one primary factor — early season preparedness. If Iowa State can pull off an early upset during the gauntlet portion of the schedule, then the confidence level should rise and the “must win” portion of the schedule will be manageable.
Iowa State must come out early with a sense of urgency and comfort in their plans. Certainly, adjustments will be made, but early season contests are often decided based on preparedness and urgency. I believe Matt Campbell has a much better feel for this team in 2018 than he has in either of the first two seasons.
In 2016, the staff did not know what they had. By the final four games, they had dialed in on personnel and scheme and played solidly. In 2017, adversity struck that called in to question all of the early season preparation, yet the staff was able to adjust and create a perfect storm of efficiency leading to upsets and solid play ahead of schedule based on roster reconstruction. This year, I believe they know what they have and how they want to use it and that should lead to a solid attack and solid play in the early part of the season.
If Iowa State plays up to par through the first seven games of the year, they should hit the “must win” portion at 4-3 or 5-2. If so, a 4-1 finish to the season would become probable, not possible. If Iowa State struggles, or plays well and still loses, and hits game 8 at 2-5 or 3-4, then there will be no margin for error and the team psyche will be called to task.
Both of the above scenarios are possible which makes this season impossible to predict with any certainty. The one thing I do know is that the talent displayed on the field both among the starters and among the depth players will be greater than at any time in recent memory. When Iowa State has had talented rosters, they have won games. The talent upgrade bolsters my confidence and leads me to lean towards the positive progression continuing in 2018.
I will be watching for the following when Iowa State has the ball:
I will be watching for the following when SDSU has the ball:
Strap in and strap it up. These first few games are going to be a treat. Enjoy the talent and the possibilities, it gets real Saturday night.
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