CF’s Experts Pick’em: Week 5

There were a few big movers in the standings after last week but none bigger than both parts of "The Amiguously Gray Duo" as both Rob Gray and Adam Gray were perfect on the week. Jeff Woody is alone in second place on the leaderboard after going 5-1; this has resulted in a battle of over-confidence of trash talk between the former running back and the current leader on Twitter. It is best if you have avoided it entirely.


CF Director of Sales, Adam Gray

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-13.5) – Oklahoma State wins 42-27

UCLA (-5.5) @ Arizona State – Something doesn’t seem right with this UCLA team. I like ASU to win outright.

Texas (-14) @ Kansas – 14 is a big number for this Texas team, even against Kansas. Texas wins, Kansas covers

Iowa (-10.5) @ Purdue – Iowa seemed to find something in the second half of the Pitt game. I like the Hawks to cover against an awful Purdue team. 

Stanford (-7.5) @ Washington – Stanford will wear down Washington with their physical play and win by 10.

Baylor (-21.5) @ Iowa State – I really don’t have a feel on this ISU team (obvious by my 0-3 predictions). I think ISU comes out fighting, is in it in the second half, and covers.

The White Barry Sanders, Jeff Woody

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-13.5) – Texas Tech just gave up 400 rushing yards to a team that can’t pass as another option, and did that at home, no less. Going on the road to Boone Pickens Stadium with a new defensive coordinator?  No bueno for coach Gosling, I mean, Kingsbury. OSU by 17+.

UCLA (-5.5) @ Arizona State – I really am not high on these Bruins. A lot of things have had to happen for them to get to 3-0, and losing Brett Hundley to an injury (even if he plays, he won’t be very effective) will be extremely difficult to overcome. Give me the Devils at home.

Texas (-14) @ Kansas – Texas has looked pretty bad this year, but Kansas has looked worse. Ol’ Charlie Weis is trying to steer a rudderless ship right now. Injuries and poor play really will define the low-win Kansas season. I think Texas’s talent is enough to overcome the road game. Longhorns by a bunch.

Iowa (-10.5) @ Purdue –  See above, substitute the words ‘Iowa’ for ‘Texas,’ ‘Purdue’ for ‘Kansas,’ and ‘Darrell Hazel’ for ‘Charlie Weis.’ Hawks by a dozen or more.

Stanford (-7.5) @ Washington – This one is really intriguing to me. I love the way Stanford plays football, smart dudes playing smash-mouth ball, but Washington has a heck of a home atmosphere. Even though Stanford has suitcase game (you can pack it up and take it anywhere and it still looks the same), I’ll take the Huskies. Hook-and-Ladders for everyone! (That’s a Chris Peterson Joke, everybody).

Baylor (-21.5) @ Iowa State – Call me crazy, but I think this one is a barn burner. Baylor has played better on the road within the last year or so, but they are still shaky on uncommon soil. Speaking of soil, Baylor is 2-3 since the start of 2012 on grass, with a point differential of -6 (187-193). As much as Stanford has suitcase game, Baylor has cap-less golf bag game. If it all stays together it is as impressive as before, but more than likely it’ll fall apart on the plane. Don’t get me wrong, this is still a terrifying game as a fan, but it’s much less so here in Ames. 

What ISU has to do to win this game (or at least give themselves a shot to win):

– DO NOT TURN THE BALL OVER. The more you give that offense chances, the more they are gonna hang crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

-Paired with that, the offense HAS to stay on the field, even if the result is a drive ending in a punt. We did not to that last year in Waco, and our defense got exhausted and shredded because of it.

-They have to win special teams. This is an area that ISU can make a difference and give Baylor difficult situations to defend and start possessions, because you know they are going to go for the home run quite often. A 65 yard ball is much harder to put on the money than a 35 yard ball, even for the best passer in the country (Bryce Petty).

-Hit Bryce Petty in the pocket. That offense is so intricately tied with rhythm. Big plays beget big plays, and when the defense is tired, Petty basically plays 7 on 7 since he knows he won’t get touched. You have to plant that seed of doubt that he is under pressure, even if he’s not. Make him lose mechanics. Make him throw early. That only happens when you make him uncomfortable early.

-TACKLE. Specifically the linebacker(s) in the box. The way Baylor plays, you almost have to have a 5 man box so you can drop everyone else in coverage. That means there are 5 lineman for 5 defenders. Rarely will an O-line go 5 for 5 on blocking, and those 1 or 2 unblocked guys have to make a tackle. If they miss, there are plenty of yards between the runner and those 6 in pass coverage.

-Pray. With an offense this good and athletes that fast, you have to hope they make mistakes, like fumbles, muffed punts, dropped passes, etc. This is not an all-star team, so they are capable of mistakes. Take advantage of those and you’re in the game.

With all that being said, GIVE ME THE CYCLONES (and points)!

Go State.

The Successor to John Walters, Brent Blum

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-13.5) – Kingsbury loves national TV. He is going to coach this night game in Ray-Ban shades, because the sun never sets on a bad ass and because he’d rather not watch his own defense. Oklahoma State 37 Texas Tech 28.

UCLA (-5.5) @ Arizona State – Arizona State has played a bunch of nobodies and is missing their starting QB. It sounds like UCLA QB Hundley will play. Flip a coin, Devils cover. UCLA 31 Arizona State 28.

Texas (-14) @ Kansas – By the time Texas plays Iowa State, they will be suiting up student managers. Texas’ student managers are probably comparable to Kansas’ regulars however. Texas 27 Kansas 10.

Iowa (-10.5) @ Purdue –  At this point in his career, Ferentz would start Rudock just to anger everyone. Embrace the heel, Kirk! Purdue isn’t terrible by their standards. Iowa 24 Purdue 14.

Stanford (-7.5) @ Washington – I don’t know this as a fact, but the team that gets 7.5 points covers like 98 percent of the time. Stanford 27 Washington 20. 

Baylor (-21.5) @ Iowa State – After 1st quarters this season, Baylor has led by 21 points or more in every contest. I fully expect Iowa State to not let that happen. If this game is within 10 by half, Iowa State could make it interesting, but they need Petty to throw it to the defense once or twice. Baylor 45 Iowa State 31. 

Not Suspended Like Bill Simmons, Chris Hassel

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-13.5) – Pokes. Texas Tech’s only chance is to have Chris Kingsbury on the sideline.

UCLA (-5.5) @ Arizona State – ASU. The Forks sacked Hundley nine times last season. He should expect a ton of pressure.

Texas (-14) @ Kansas – Horns. Dave Z’s brother thinks his Jayhawks are bowl-bound this season. Texas is coming off 2 losses and has Baylor and OU next. Blowout.

Iowa (-10.5) @ Purdue –  Boilers. While I think Iowa SHOULD cover, I’m not convinced they’ll win by double-figures.

Stanford (-7.5) @ Washington – Trees. My gut told me Stanford may be running into a buzz-saw but Stanford (0-1 in Pac 12) needs it. And they’re allowing a nation-best 4 points-per-game. FOUR!

Baylor (-21.5) @ Iowa State – ISU. I gotta believe that the two weeks of prep will help the Cyclones stay within 3 TD’s.

The Most Durable QB of the Rhoads Era, Austen Arnuad

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-13.5) – This line is definitely a little tricky, one thing is certain there will be a lot of points. Okie State wins in a shoot out but I like TTU to keep it close and play some inspired football with all that is going on in their locker room. 

UCLA (-5.5) @ Arizona State – Arizona State not only covers, they win outright. Hundley will play with a brace on his left arm, he will be hesitant to make plays on the ground like he is used too. Look for the Arizona State defense to put some pressure on Hundley. UCLA has had a lack luster start to season where they were a heavy favorite to win the PAC 12.

Texas (-14) @ Kansas – Man, this might be one of the worst games of the weekend, another player gone from UT this week. I like Charlie Weis and KU to cover at home (did I just say that?… Oh well).

Iowa (-10.5) @ Purdue –  I’ll take the Boilermakers here, Hawks come out sluggish after an emotional win at Pitt last week. Purdue is baddddd but they keep it close.

Stanford (-7.5) @ Washington – Stanford controls this ball game and wins by a lot more than 7.5.

Baylor (-21.5) @ Iowa State – The Cyclones are 2-0 at home against Art Briles but circumstances have changed a bit since both of those victories. However, I think the Cyclones have played much better opponents so far this season and I think the Bears come out flat and overlook the Cyclones. Iowa State keeps it close-ish and covers the 21.5

Me, Kirk Haaland

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-13.5) – I saw earlier in the week that Mike Gundy’s career passer rating was 133.3 and Kliff Kingsbury’s was 133.2. That is good enough for me…plus, I don’t like how Kingsbury is trying to infringe upon Dreamy’s territory. Cowboys.

UCLA (-5.5) @ Arizona State – I think you’re usually supposed to take the home underdog, right? I guess I’ll take the home underdog.

Texas (-14) @ Kansas – Kansas is really bad and Texas is losing players faster than Greg McDermott in Ames. 14 points is a lot on the road…but I’m going against the saying in the pick above. With next to no confidence I choose Texas.

Iowa (-10.5) @ Purdue –  Again, with a road favorite. Iowa should win by a lot of points but as my buddy John (the Hawk fan) says, "Kirk Ferentz will get up by 10 points and try to hang on for the lead. He hates to score and his favorite play is the punt. His favorite game he ever coached in was the 6-4 win at Penn State." Iowa wins, a terrible Purdue team covers.

Stanford (-7.5) @ Washington – I never really stay up late enough to watch the Pac 12. So, I asked my daughter who would win between Huskies and Trees. Granted, she’s doped up on anti-biotics but you can imagine the look she gave me. We went with the Huskies.

Baylor (-21.5) @ Iowa State – It is almost completely irrational. I wrote about the awful performance last year in Waco and there will be more Baylor info to come as we look at their explosive offense, but something tells me stuff might get weird on Saturday. Iowa State probably won’t win but I think they’ll cover the three touchdowns.

The Author of the Best Georges Niang Column Ever, Rob Gray

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-13.5) – Not bullish on Kingsbury’s boys at the moment. Cowboys roll (and cover), 45-24.

UCLA (-5.5) @ Arizona State – Fantastic nightcap on Thursday. Bruins defense will be tested in a wild one. No cover. UCLA 38, ASU 35.

Texas (-14) @ Kansas – Charlie Strong keeps booting players, but Kansas is still Kansas. Texas 27, Kansas 10.

Iowa (-10.5) @ Purdue –  Can’t see the Hawks covering in this one. Interesting to see if C.J. Beathard can shine for four quarters on the road. Iowa 30, Boilers 24.

Stanford (-7.5) @ Washington – Do I buy Washington as a top Pac-12 team when its best win is a 59-52 thriller over FCS power Eastern Washington? No, I don’t. Cardinal 31, Huskies 17.

Baylor (-21.5) @ Iowa State – Cyclones are due to force more than one turnover in a game. Look for an INT from Kamari Cotton-Moya and another Cory Morrissey sack/forced fumble. Not enough, though. Bears manage to cover, 45-21

Busch Light’s Most Underpaid Spokesman, Chris Williams

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-13.5) – Texas Tech has lost eight in a row ATS going back to last year. In addition to that, the Red Raiders have failed to cover in their last five vs. OSU. Uh, give me the Cowboys, please. Oklahoma State 34, Texas Tech 20

UCLA (-5.5) @ Arizona State – I’d be a liar if I said I was an expert on Pac-12 football. I did watch UCLA vs. Texas and wasn’t crazy impressed so I’ll take the Sun Devils and the points at home. UCLA 24, Arizona State 21

Texas (-14) @ Kansas – The Jayhawks are horrible but Texas isn’t very good either. Don’t know why but I’m feeling a Jayhawk cover here as no big trends favor either team. Texas 28, Kansas 17

Iowa (-10.5) @ Purdue –  How bad is Purdue? This team lost at home to Central Michigan 38-17 in week 2. Kansas, yes that Kansas, beat the Chippewas last week in a fairly convincing manner. Iowa wins and covers. Hawks 27 (missed PAT), Purdue 14  

Stanford (-7.5) @ Washington – David Shaw is 13-4 ATS on the road since 2011. Trees 24, Huskies 14

Baylor (-21.5) @ Iowa State – Baylor doesn’t score as much on the road traditionally. In fact, the Bears are 1-6 ATS as a road favorite over the last three years. I think that the good guys will hang tough for a while, but Baylor will tack on a backdoor to beat the spread. Baylor 49, Iowa State 27

The Master of the Low-Blow on his Way out of Town, Dave Zawilinski

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-13.5) – Texas Tech.

UCLA (-5.5) @ Arizona State – ASU. In Todd Graham we trust.

Texas (-14) @ Kansas – Texas.

Iowa (-10.5) @ Purdue –  Iowa.

Stanford (-7.5) @ Washington – Washington.

Baylor (-21.5) @ Iowa State – Baylor.

Dan McCarney’s Favorite Linebacker, Adam Carper

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-13.5) – Vegas claims Tech is 1-8 the last 9 games against the spread.  That’s all that needs to be said, Okie State.

UCLA (-5.5) @ Arizona State – With UCLA QB Brett Hundley’s health in question and this game in the desert, I like the Sun Devils to cover.

Texas (-14) @ Kansas – Kansas barely squeaked by Southeast Missouri State earlier this year 34-28.  I’ve never even heard of that school.  All the more reason I’m taking Texas this week. 

Iowa (-10.5) @ Purdue – Iowa generally plays to the level of their competition.  Regardless of the QB, Purdue backdoor covers this one.

Stanford (-7.5) @ Washington – The Huskies gave up 52 points to FCS school Eastern Washington in week 2 and was down 14 at halftime to Georgia State.  Stanford too physical and fundamentally sound.  CA boys cover.

Baylor (-21.5) @ Iowa State – Clones stay competitive early but Bryce Petty and the Bears open the floodgates late.  Bears

Seneca Target 1A, Jack Whitver

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-13.5) – OSU has a ton of talent and a good home field advantage…OSU by 14 to cover.

UCLA (-5.5) @ Arizona State – UCLA has been up and down so far…Arizona wins outright in the desert to cover.

Texas (-14) @ Kansas – Kansas is awful, UT covers as they win by 17.

Iowa (-10.5) @ Purdue –  Iowa beats a very bad Purdue team by 11, covers on the road.

Stanford (-7.5) @ Washington – Stanford wins but UW keeps it close at home. Huskies cover.

Baylor (-21.5) @ Iowa State – Baylor is a legitimate top 10 team with a ton of speed. A packed and rocking Jack Trice on national TV allows ISU to make it a game. Cyclones cover.

Seneca Target 1B, Lane Danielsen

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-13.5) – Oklahoma State.  I think Okie State might be the most underrated team in the Big 12.  They roll at home and cover 13.5.

UCLA (-5.5) @ Arizona State – UCLA. UCLA wins by a TD on the road.  Coach Mora has the Bruins rolling.

Texas (-14) @ Kansas – Texas. Texas has to be due to for a decisive win and @Lawrence, KS is the perfect place for that to happen.

Iowa (-10.5) @ Purdue –  Iowa. I think Iowa is going to put a two halves together like they played in the 2nd half against Pitt and they win by two TD’s or more.

Stanford (-7.5) @ Washington – Stanford. Although Washington is 4-0, Stanford is to good and to physical.

Baylor (-21.5) @ Iowa State – Baylor.  I’m afraid we can’t score enough points to keep this game within 3 TD’s.

The Original Cole Netten, Bret Culbertson

(Note: Shaggy didn’t get his picks submitted on time so my quarter is doing the work for him. Heads is the favorite and tails is the underdog).

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-13.5) – Heads, Cowboys.

UCLA (-5.5) @ Arizona State – Heads, Bruins.

Texas (-14) @ Kansas – Tails, Jayhawks.

Iowa (-10.5) @ Purdue –  Heads, Iowa.

Stanford (-7.5) @ Washington – Heads, Stanford.

Baylor (-21.5) @ Iowa State – Tails, Cyclones.

Ed Wilson’s Boss, Brett McIntyre

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-13.5) – Oklahoma State. I’ll take the Cowboys at home.

UCLA (-5.5) @ Arizona State – Arizona State. At night, in the desert, Sun Devils win outright.

Texas (-14) @ Kansas – Texas. The Longhorns look awful, and I’m tempted to go the other way, but after an embarrassing 1st half, Texas pulls it together to cover.

Iowa (-10.5) @ Purdue –  Purdue. The Boilermakers are really, really bad. Truly awful. But not as bad as Iowa’s record lately as double-digit favorites. Boilers cover.

Stanford (-7.5) @ Washington – Stanford. It’s tough to say how much we know about either of these teams, but I think the Cardinal eek out a cover on the road.

Baylor (-21.5) @ Iowa State – Baylor. I don’t think ISU will embarrass itself in this game, but it just seems like every mistake you make against the Bears is an automatic 7. I think this ends up in the 45-21 range.  

KXNO P*******, Andrew Downs (Get it? He was unnecessarily censored!)

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-13.5) – OK State. I like a big win here at home for the Cowboys.

UCLA (-5.5) @ Arizona State – AZ State. Have yet to be impressed by UCLA. 

Texas (-14) @ Kansas – Kansas. Texas is down, and while I think they win, I wouldn’t give them 14 points against anyone.

Iowa (-10.5) @ Purdue –  Iowa. On the road with (hopefully) a new starting QB, but Purdue is just not any good. 

Stanford (-7.5) @ Washington – Washington. The Huskies haven’t beaten anyone good, but they’re putting up a lot of points and will keep this within a score. 

Baylor (-21.5) @ Iowa State – The Cyclones have improved each game, and with two weeks to prepare they’ll keep it closer than many think.

Rice is to Montana as Blythe is to…, Bret Meyer

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-13.5) – Okie State 31-10.

UCLA (-5.5) @ Arizona State – UCLA 17-10.

Texas (-14) @ Kansas – Texas 28-10.

Iowa (-10.5) @ Purdue –  Iowa 20-17.

Stanford (-7.5) @ Washington – Stanford 21-17.

Baylor (-21.5) @ Iowa State – Baylor 35-20.

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