Mar 27, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Iowa State Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger reacts in the first half against the Tennessee Volunteers during a Sweet Sixteen game of the Midwest Regional of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images
What if?
What if Joshua Jefferson could have played? Would Iowa State have beaten Tennessee in Friday’s Sweet 16, instead of losing 76-62 at the Bulls’ United Center?
We can only speculate, but this much we know:
Iowa State had a wonderful season. One of the school’s finest. With a bunch of players who played aggressive defense, had likable guys who could (usually) make shots, and entertained oh so many fans each time they turned on the lights at Hilton Coliseum.
It finally caught up with T.J. Otzelberger’s team, playing without its superstar, who sprained an ankle in the first three minutes of the NCAA opening win against Tennessee State. They won that game, then beat Kentucky, while the All-American watched from the sidelines, sprained left ankle in a boot.
Winning again against Rick Barnes-coached Tennessee in the Sweet 16? That’s asking a lot, even if Jefferson played. Barnes is a great coach. His teams play aggressively, as does Iowa State.
Would a healthy Jefferson have slowed down the Vols from scoring 23 of the second half’s first 35 points? Would a healthy Jefferson have been a difference-maker on the offensive end? Would a healthy Jefferson have had one of those 17-point, 12-assist, 10-rebound triple-doubles like he had against UCF? Would he have been good enough for Iowa State to win a Sweet 16 game?
What if?
Had the 16-point scorer played, I sure as heck know this — that the Vols wouldn’t have been able to sell out defensively against Milan Momcilovic.
Wherever the nation’s top 3-point shooter went on the floor, Tennessee followed, hands in face. His only open long-range looks were off the few transition opportunities the Cyclones got.
Would the Vols have had 16 offensive rebounds if Jefferson had been healthy? Or a dozen dunks?
Probably, because that’s their deal. They came into Friday night’s game averaging a nation’s-best 14.1 offensive rebounds. They dunk at every opportunity. They out-rebounded Iowa State by an eye-popping 43-22.
What if this. What if that.
We’ll never know, and really, it’s a moot point.
If this is the ceiling for Iowa State men’s basketball — routine Sweet 16s and occasional Elite Eights — really, those aren’t the worst outcomes in the world.
Cyclones fans know they have one of the finest coaches in college basketball. They know he’s the best men’s basketball leader the school has had, and they know that in T.J. Otzelberger, Iowa State has a forever coach.
Absolutely, this team had Final Four potential, but sometimes stuff happens en route to an NCAA Tournament national title opportunity.
The injury to Jefferson. Not having the same financial resources as others in the Big 12 and nationally. Choose any excuse you want for another second-weekend exit, but don’t forget:
Iowa State had a wonderful season. The Cyclones maxed out. They gave their all. Every player — from Jefferson to the walk-ons — improved. Really, can you ask more than that?
Instead of overthinking and nitpicking the negative, though, be thankful Iowa State men’s basketball is relevant again. Five years after this program nose-dived to the lowest of all lows, Cyclones men’s basketball has become so good, and sometimes dominating, that you just know Otzelberger sometime will coach them through the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend and into the Final Four.
You know it. You just know it.
Sometime, the Cyclones’ Final Four day will come.
Kansas, Kentucky and North Carolina have all those national championship trophies, but how many of them reached the Sweet 16? None — and North Carolina lost against 11-seed VCU in the tournament’s first round.
What if Joshua Jefferson would have been able to play Friday?
Let’s go with what we know . . .
That it was another successful Iowa State basketball season — one of the most successful in school history.
(Columnist Randy Peterson, a past Iowa Sportswriter of the Year winner, can be reached at [email protected] or at any Okoboji-area beverage/food establishment between the hours of open and close.)
