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Analyzing Iowa State’s path to the Sweet 16

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Mar 27, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Iowa State Cyclones...

Iowa State enters the 2026 NCAA Tournament as a 2‑seed in St. Louis against 15‑seed Tennessee State on Friday (1:50 CT, CBS). A win sets up a Sunday matchup with either 7‑seed Kentucky or 10‑seed Santa Clara. Here’s everything Cyclone fans need to know about the three teams in the Cyclones’ pod.

Tennessee State Tigers (15‑seed)

Tennessee State comes in very confident as the Ohio Valley Conference champion, riding a 23–9 season built on pace, physicality, and a surprisingly efficient offense. The Tigers averaged 80.5 points per game while shooting 46% from the field, and they were one of the better rebounding mid‑majors in the country at 38.0 boards per game, giving them a +4.3 margin on the glass.

Their defense isn’t elite, but it is opportunistic. The Tigers generated 9.4 steals per game and forced nearly 15 turnovers per night, often turning those into transition points. The Tigers aren’t a heavy three‑point team (just 6.4 makes per game), but they compensate with strong free‑throw shooting (76.5%) and a strong scoring duo that when hot can keep them in any game.

Aaron Nkrumah leads the Tigers in scoring with 17.6 points per game. The 6-foot-6, 175-pound senior guard is an efficient player on the offensive end. He shoots 43.7% from the field and 35.2% from three point range. His cohort, Travis Harper II, is just behind him averaging 17.3 points per game and 4.3 rebounds. The senior guard is a sniper from three point range shooting 40.1% from behind the arc and almost automatic at the free line shooting 85.3%. If the Tigers athleticism and shot making gets going early, the Cyclones could be in for a 40-minute game.

Kentucky Wildcats (7‑seed)

Kentucky’s 21–13 season under Mark Pope has been a roller coaster, but the Wildcats remain one of the most talented 7‑seeds in the field. They score 80.8 points per game with a deep rotation of athletic guards and long forwards, led by breakout star Otega Oweh, who averaged 18.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.8 steals while shooting 46.3% from the floor. Freshman point guard Denzel Aberdeen added 13.2 points and 3.6 assists, while sharpshooter Collin Chandler chipped in 9.9 points on 42.7% from three, giving Kentucky multiple perimeter threats.

In the frontcourt, Malachi Moreno anchors the interior with efficient finishing at 58.3% the field and great shot‑blocking ability at 1.6 per game. Kentucky’s offense is explosive, but their defense can be non exsistent at times. They allow 73.7 points per game, and their young roster sometimes struggles with rotations and foul trouble. Still, their athleticism, length, and ability to score in transition make them a dangerous Round‑of‑32 opponent for any high seed. We have seen Iowa State struggle at times against teams with lenght and athleticsim very similar to Kentucky this season.

Santa Clara Broncos (10‑seed)

Santa Clara enters the tournament as one of the most efficient offensive teams outside the power conferences, finishing 26–8 with a high‑octane attack that averaged 82.9 points per game. The Broncos shoot the ball extremely well as a team shooting 46.8% from the field and 34.6% from three. They space the floor with multiple shooters, headlined by guard Christian Hammond, who led the team in scoring 15.8 points per game on 49% shooting and 40% from deep. Forward Elijah Mahi averages 13.9 points per game and versatile wing Allen Graves is the all around guy for the Broncos averaging 11.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.0 SPG give Santa Clara a balanced top three, while center Bukky Oboye adds interior efficiency with 8.0 points per game at 67% from the field.

The Broncos’ biggest statistical strength is ball security. They turn it over just 10.8 times per game, one of the best marks among mid‑majors and they punish teams that do make mistakes with 17.8 points off turnovers per night. Defensively, they’re solid but not overwhelming, allowing 72.4 points per game and relying more on positioning than rim protection. Their three‑point volume is scary as they make 10.1 threes per game. That makes them a dangerous matchup for any high seed and if they get hot, they can make a deep run in the tournament.

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