WILLIAMS: Week 4 Big 12 ATS picks

Sep 17, 2022; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) runs for a touchdown during the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s get to the picks and keep making money. 

Record on the Year: 15-11 (4-3 last week)

Baylor at Iowa State (-2.5) — Iowa State hasn’t lost a conference home game since the year 2019. Besides that, Iowa State has just been better during the non-con than the defending Big 12 champion Bears. I’m not overconfident. These teams are incredibly even and every power rating you can get your hands on indicates that. If Iowa State can slow down Baylor’s rushing attack and not make too many dumb mistakes, the Cyclones will get off to their first 4-0 start since Y2K. 

THE PICK: Iowa State 27, Baylor 20 

Duke at Kansas (-7) — It is such a crime that ESPN’s College GameDay isn’t going to be in Lawrence for this battle of pesky and unbeaten basketball blue bloods. Kansas is not only a bowl team, but I think the Jayhawks will win seven or eight games this fall. We are heading into week three and little old KU STILL has the No. 1 offense in America. Last week’s win at Houston proved that Kansas is no fluke. 

THE PICK: Kansas 38, Duke 24 

TCU (-2) at SMU — One of the most fascinating matchups of the week. One of the most intense games of the season. Sonny Dykes goes back across town to face his old team. I can smell the carnage from Des Moines! SMU is a talented bunch, but I question its defense. This will be an absolute war but give me the Big 12 squad (one I believe is probably a smidge underrated) in this rivalry game. 


Jul 14, 2022; Arlington, TX, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes is interviewed during the Big 12 Media Day at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Texas (-7) at Texas Tech — I don’t have a good feel for this game either way. On one hand, Tech has exceeded expectations this year simply with the home win vs. Houston. They were a bit “blah” last week at N.C. State, but that’s a really good team the Red Raiders lost to. We cannot deny what Texas did to Alabama. The Horns are better up front than they have been in some time. I guess I’ll ride with Texas here. This is going to be a brutal environment but I actually think that Hudson Card is a better option at quarterback because of that. 

THE PICK: Texas 30, Texas Tech 20 

Kansas State at Oklahoma (-12.5) — You’ve got to watch the games. I have, and it’s why I’m probably going to surprise a few people here. All summer long, I ranted about how Oklahoma was overrated starting the season in the top 10. I think I was wrong. Clearly, Brent Venables has totally changed the definition of “defense” in Norman. It’s a more complete Oklahoma (way better on defense, probably giving up a smidge of firepower on offense) than the teams in the past that notoriously struggled with K-State’s “vampire” approach. And what are we going to get from Kansas State, who inexplicably lost at home to Tulane last week? A bounce-back effort? I’m guessing yes, but will that be enough to cover the 12.5? 

THE PICK: Oklahoma 31, Kansas State 17