CHICAGO — I’ve got a few minutes before things will get too busy here at the United Center. Let’s have some fun. Here are my against the spread picks for the Sweet 16.
THURSDAY NIGHT
4 Arkansas vs. 1 Gonzaga, 6:09 p.m. on CBS — This just seems like A LOT of points to give a good Arkansas team with a top 15 KenPom defense. The Zags struggled to put away Memphis in the Round of 32 and Eric Musselman can coach. Gonzaga wins but Arkansas keeps this respectable.
The pick: Arkansas (+10)
11 Michigan vs. 2 Villanova, 6:29 p.m on TBS — It just feels to me like Michigan is a destiny type of team this March. They are playing for their once embattled coach. The Wolverines convincingly took care of Colorado State and Tennessee last weekend. It’s hard to bet against Jay Wright though. Led by perhaps the best coach in all of college basketball, Nova has won seven games in a row and made quick work of another Big Ten team, Ohio State in the Round of 32. But Villanova is prone to close games (ranked 348th nationally in average possession length) and I’m guessing this one will be too.
The pick: Michigan (+5)
3 Texas Tech vs. 2 Duke, 8:39 on CBS — I love Texas Tech. I have them winning the title in most of my brackets (Kansas in the other). Here’s where the Red Raiders have the biggest edge Thursday night: Duke is the 346th oldest team in college basketball (super young). Tech is ranked 34th. The Red Raiders are a cohesive group of grown men, and I love them to end Coach K’s career.
The pick: Texas Tech (PK)
5 Houston vs. 1 Arizona, 8:59 p.m. on TBS — I could see this going either way. I had TCU beating Arizona in the second round, which probably should have happened. Will the Horned Frogs prove to be a nice prep game for Houston or are Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars an enhanced version of TCU, which will in return give Arizona problems? A fascinating matchup. I’ll stay with my theme of riding underdogs.
The pick: Houston (+1.5)
FRIDAY NIGHT
15 Saint Peter’s vs. 3 Purdue (-12.5), 6:09 p.m. on CBS — I read elsewhere that it pays to take the underdog here. However, I’m willing to write that there is zero chance Cinderella wins this game. Zero. The massive Boilers are a matchup nightmare for a low major. I’ll go against the grain here and take Purdue in a blowout.
The pick: Purdue (-12.5)
4 Providence vs. 1 Kansas (-7.5), 6:29 p.m. on TBS — I like Providence to make this one really interesting. Ed Cooley is no joke. The metrics treat Providence a bit like they do Iowa State. Despite having a ton of quad one wins and going 27-5 leading up till now, the Friars are ranked all the way down at No. 32 in KenPom. Meanwhile, the metrics LOVE Kansas, as they should. I think Kansas will win this game but Providence is physical enough to match up with the Jayhawks like a Big 12 team. They can play a couple of different ways and keep it close.
The pick: Providence (+7.5)
8 North Carolina vs. 4 UCLA (-2.5), 8:39 p.m. on CBS — Another one of my least favorite games to play this weekend. Both teams came into the NCAA Tournament hot and backed everything up in the first weekend. Don’t have much of a feel here so with North Carolina’s slight injury concerns, I’ll ride with the Bruins as Mick Cronin is one baaaaad dude.
The pick: UCLA (-2.5)
11 Iowa State vs. 10 Miami, 8:59 p.m. on TBS — I honestly think the wrong team is favored here. KenPom has Iowa State by one. However, Vegas is riding with the Hurricanes by 2.5. There is clear value on Iowa State’s side. Of course, there’s a lot of talk about Iowa State’s offensive inconsistencies, however if you look at how the Cyclones have performed against average to bad defenses this season, they actually have performed quite well. Miami’s offense is good to elite, but is nothing Iowa State hasn’t seen all season long.
The pick: Iowa State (+2.5 and OVER 133)
