After what we've had so far this winter, a friend of mine says he's going to design an SUV that outputs plastic bags as its exhaust.
Winter Storm redux
- Thread starter Iastfan112
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After what we've had so far this winter, a friend of mine says he's going to design an SUV that outputs plastic bags as its exhaust.
From the WeatherAmerica Newsletter...
The ongoing tropical energy and moisture feed into storms emerging off of the Eurasian continent continues with no sign of let-up. A function of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (disregard whatever those "diagrams" say about the MJO Phase....), this fetch conjoins with the polar westerlies largely because of the abundance of cold air and full-latitude trough complexes that occupy eastern Asia (easily shown on the very cold appearance of the infrared MTSAT view). So storms which otherwise would fall apart on the long journey across the Pacific Ocean instead are deepening, and in the process pumping up ridges in the EPO and PNA positions while aiming disturbed weather along the central portion of the West Coast. For this reason, the generally cold, stormy pattern that has been in effect across the U.S. (albeit with quick moderation just downstream of the storms) is likely to continue into the second week of March.:biglaugh:
I don't think I understood a word of that, so I am sticking to my previous statement. It is springtime now, and winter is over! YAY SPRING!
Personally I think thats an underplay of the amounts overall, but we'll know more later. Here's a prediction based off a model showing 6 inches of snow or so for Des Moines.
NCEP Model Time-Series (BUFR) Forecast Hourly Weather Data
NCEP Model Time-Series (BUFR) Forecast Hourly Weather Data
Sure looked good but ...the bufkit text stuff is far less-impressed by all this...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif
I liked the part that talked about the weather.
I take this entire thing to mean that I'll be playing golf on March 20th.
A lady on the Weather Channel said the winter we are having is because of Global Warming???? Ask Elwen ( spell?) Taylor ISU weather man.
You see I'm just looking at the NAM and the GFS(I'll leave out the European models thats a whole different mess) and the amounts shown by that map and indicated by NWS just seem a bit light. My thoughts are about 4-6 by Des Moines, 6-8 or so by highway 20.
Here's my take on it:
I'd say the odds are good for a ninja attack in the northwest corner of the state, while we are looking more at a case of zombies (or possible pirate zombies with areas of pirate zombie ninjas in the Carroll area). Folks to the east are in the clear, I think.
I'd say the odds are good for a ninja attack in the northwest corner of the state, while we are looking more at a case of zombies (or possible pirate zombies with areas of pirate zombie ninjas in the Carroll area). Folks to the east are in the clear, I think.
If you look at the latest model runs that you like, the problem isn't precip amounts in central Iowa it is air temperature.
For example, the point forecast for Pleasant Hill has at least 3 inches of snow in it BUT the surface temperature and the 850 mb temps are at or above freezing for almost the whole event. Temps don't fall below freezing until after the main show has pushed through central Iowa. The GFS, at least, doesn't show much of a trowal after the cold air filters in on the backside so deformation zone snowfall probably wont be very prolific.
I'm not saying it isn't going to snow, I'm saying the 1-3 for accumulating snows in Central Iowa is a better bet with the models this morning.
Aren't temperature dependent forecasts fun ?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_036l.gif
idk what your seeing on the GFS. To me it shows that the 850 , 0 line draped across southern and far eastern(where not much precip is yet either. If you look at that frame plus the next 3(all of which the 850 is southern Iowa or more) and then calculate the 24 hr totals it comes up with a .5-.75 qpf. That to me suggest 4-6 roughly.
idk what your seeing on the GFS. To me it shows that the 850 , 0 line draped across southern and far eastern(where not much precip is yet either. If you look at that frame plus the next 3(all of which the 850 is southern Iowa or more) and then calculate the 24 hr totals it comes up with a .5-.75 qpf. That to me suggest 4-6 roughly.
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