Williams & Blum Pod: Omaha Biliew, Saban vs. Jimbo & the future of ESPN

[ChrisMWilliams]

Enjoy!

Williams & Blum: Omaha Biliew's recruitment, Saban vs. Jimbo & the future of ESPN

Five-start hoops prospect Omaha Biliew included Iowa State in his top-4 last week. The guys analyze what that means for Iowa State basketball. It's Nick vs. Jimbo in the SEC. Will ESPN be the worldwide leader in sports 10 years from now? The guys tackle these topics and more in this week's pod, whic

cyclonefanatic.com

 

[Tpups21]

Any rumors still out there of Biliew reclassifying to ‘22?

 

[Halincandenza]

Billew to ISU confirmed.

 

[allfourcy]

Billew to ISU confirmed.

LOL

 

[cykadelic2]

Enjoy!

Williams & Blum: Omaha Biliew's recruitment, Saban vs. Jimbo & the future of ESPN

Five-start hoops prospect Omaha Biliew included Iowa State in his top-4 last week. The guys analyze what that means for Iowa State basketball. It's Nick vs. Jimbo in the SEC. Will ESPN be the worldwide leader in sports 10 years from now? The guys tackle these topics and more in this week's pod, whic

cyclonefanatic.com

A couple of comments regarding the pod:

1) I think the IZB scenario of staying in CBB and transferring was not relevant. Since he transferred to ISU last season under the new rules, he would not be immediately eligible if he played elsewhere for CBB next season. His alternatives were ISU or go pro.

2) Regarding the Apple/Amazon discussion, I agree the P12 and/or B12 would be wise to sell all their inventory to one or the other.

The no brainer scenario IMO is for one of them (Apple or Amazon) buy PACN's production assets, the P12 expands and aggregates inventory with the B12 R8 (minus WV) + BYU, the B12 dissolves, and sell the combined 20 team inventory to Apple or Amazon who would sublicense one OTA GOTW (to CBS or NBC) and one other GOTW sublicensed to a linear CATV network (TNT or USA). Have two divisions (or separate conferences due to BYU factor) with a CCG at Vegas. The rest of the games are on Amazon or Apple with kickoffs staggered throughout Saturday starting at 11 AM CT and one or two West Coast games kicking off at 9 PM CT. All 20 schools benefit with the presumed overpay by Apple or Amazon for the aggregated inventory, the P12 benefits additionally with the CT zone presence and finally shedding the PACN assets, and the B12 R7 benefits by shedding themselves of the new dilutive AAC commuter schools and increasing their future payouts in the process. And to entice USC, set up a payout mechanism where 50% of the TV revenue pie is distributed based on TV ratings. If USC is good enough to where most of their games are selected by the OTA network, they financially benefit as a result. And by having USC stay put in the P12, the B10 doesn't destroy their Rose Bowl relationship with the Pac20.

 

[Dirtguy4CY]

Flo sucks.

 

[Pat]

I really appreciate any pod that can go from Adam “Invisible Hand” Smith to a potential SEC Weasel Ranking in a matter of minutes. Keep up the good work!

 

[t-noah]

A couple of comments regarding the pod:

1) I think the IZB scenario of staying in CBB and transferring was not relevant. Since he transferred to ISU last season under the new rules, he would not be immediately eligible if he played elsewhere for CBB next season. His alternatives were ISU or go pro.

2) Regarding the Apple/Amazon discussion, I agree the P12 and/or B12 would be wise to sell all their inventory to one or the other.

The no brainer scenario IMO is for one of them (Apple or Amazon) buy PACN's production assets, the P12 expands and aggregates inventory with the B12 R8 (minus WV) + BYU, the B12 dissolves, and sell the combined 20 team inventory to Apple or Amazon who would sublicense one OTA GOTW (to CBS or NBC) and one other GOTW sublicensed to a linear CATV network (TNT or USA). Have two divisions (or separate conferences due to BYU factor) with a CCG at Vegas. The rest of the games are on Amazon or Apple with kickoffs staggered throughout Saturday starting at 11 AM CT and one or two West Coast games kicking off at 9 PM CT. All 20 schools benefit with the presumed overpay by Apple or Amazon for the aggregated inventory, the P12 benefits additionally with the CT zone presence and finally shedding the PACN assets, and the B12 R7 benefits by shedding themselves of the new dilutive AAC commuter schools and increasing their future payouts in the process. And to entice USC, set up a payout mechanism where 50% of the TV revenue pie is distributed based on TV ratings. If USC is good enough to where most of their games are selected by the OTA network, they financially benefit as a result. And by having USC stay put in the P12, the B10 doesn't destroy their Rose Bowl relationship with the Pac20.

Make it so, Number One!

LOL. Not sure how that would all work, or even if it would. But I give you great credit for rationale and out of the box thinking.

 

[Rods79]

Just had a chance to listen to this. With Apple and Amazon out there (eventually other big tech moving to diversify), seems to me it's pretty clear that ESPN is in a tough spot. We already knew it, but it puts their moves in the offseason in perspective; they are looking to essentially buy brands and manipulate conferences/competition by controlling rights to the "premier" college football programs in an effort to compete, or at a minimum raise their worth for a buyout. That's all they can really do, right? Their infrastructure will only take them so far in terms of value. Feels like they are trying to muddy the water at this point to keep the market unsettled and the big players at bay for as long as possible. So, not saying ESPN is dead, but count me in as a pessimist on their prospects in their current operation (the name will probably still live on in some fashion for branding value). The hope is that they don't screw college football up in the process...and that ultimately big tech doesn't screw it up with whatever they're devising, because they may not be the big savior that everyone expects either.

 

[Cyforce]

Just had a chance to listen to this. With Apple and Amazon out there (eventually other big tech moving to diversify), seems to me it's pretty clear that ESPN is in a tough spot. We already knew it, but it puts their moves in the offseason in perspective; they are looking to essentially buy brands and manipulate conferences/competition by controlling rights to the "premier" college football programs in an effort to compete, or at a minimum raise their worth for a buyout. That's all they can really do, right? Their infrastructure will only take them so far in terms of value. Feels like they are trying to muddy the water at this point to keep the market unsettled and the big players at bay for as long as possible. So, not saying ESPN is dead, but count me in as a pessimist on their prospects in their current operation (the name will probably still live on in some fashion for branding value). The hope is that they don't screw college football up in the process...and that ultimately big tech doesn't screw it up with whatever they're devising, because they may not be the big savior that everyone expects either.

I think it's going to allow ESPN to cherry pick the conferences only providing Tier one games with everything else being relegated.

 

[cykadelic2]

I think it's going to allow ESPN to cherry pick the conferences only providing Tier one games with everything else being relegated.

Not if the Pac12 and the B12 (more specifically BYU and R8 minus WV) play their cards right and aggregate their inventory for open bidding. Doing so would entice Amazon or Apple to pay (hopefully overpay) for rights to 20 programs predominate in the CT, MT and PT zones, remain somewhat competitive with SEC and B10 payouts, and tell ESPN to eff themselves in the process.

 

[MeanDean]

Not if the Pac12 and the B12 (more specifically BYU and R8 minus WV) play their cards right and aggregate their inventory for open bidding. Doing so would entice Amazon or Apple to pay (hopefully overpay) for rights to 20 programs predominate in the CT, MT and PT zones, remain somewhat competitive with SEC and B10 payouts, and tell ESPN to eff themselves in the process.

Great point, but even though the BIG is considered a Midwestern conference the majority of their members are in the Eastern Time Zone. So there's product there. (Plus WVU, Cincy, CFU from Big XII). So they can compete - probably not dominate SEC, but compete.

East: (8)
Rutgers
PSU.
OSU
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan St
Indiana
Purdue

Central: (6)
Illinois
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Nebraska

 

[Rods79]

Not if the Pac12 and the B12 (more specifically BYU and R8 minus WV) play their cards right and aggregate their inventory for open bidding. Doing so would entice Amazon or Apple to pay (hopefully overpay) for rights to 20 programs predominate in the CT, MT and PT zones, remain somewhat competitive with SEC and B10 payouts, and tell ESPN to eff themselves in the process.

Yeah, for the benefit of the game, I think this deal needs to strike soon-ish though, but there are a lot of headwinds when you consider the ACC/BIG/PAC alliance, general NCAA structure questions, and NIL issues. If it keeps dragging on, ESPN's strategy here causes irreparable harm if they find an audience for a relegation model...that could weigh on the minds of Big Tech. Why would they overpay when that model has been proven out? I personally will not watch a 32 team superleague model to compete with the NFL...my interest will fully move over to NFL, but I can't say the same for a blueblood fanbase. That model to me seems doomed to fail longterm though, and fool's gold in the short term, ruining a lot of teams in the process.

 

[isucy86]

I think it's going to allow ESPN to cherry pick the conferences only providing Tier one games with everything else being relegated.

I don't see ESPN in a position of absolute power. They have the SEC signed up through 2033. They are in a good spot with the ACC through 2036. But they have the ACC at a bargain price- can they keep FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC happy with that deal for another 14 years?

I will be surprised if ESPN carries any Big10 games with the next contract. It seems like FOX will have a part. But does CBS, NBC or a streaming platform step up to grow their subscriber bases with Paramount+, Peacock, Prime, Netflix or YouTube.

The big question is whether there are Pac12/Big12 schools out there that bring $70M/annually to the table and do they feel they are getting their worth in the upcoming Pac12/Big12 Media Rights negotiations. If not, I could see further realignment and consolidation by the SEC and/or Big10.

It's going to be an interesting 2-3 years of media rights negotiations. I don't see ESPN being the sole player, IMO there will be 1 or 2 other media companies that are equally strong broadcast partners. Whatever organization runs CFB will break apart the future 8 or 12 team playoff among at least 2 media partners.