Looks like the GFS models have the weekend storm back south of Iowa again with northeastern MO getting the brunt of it. Central Iowa is forecasted for under an inch now.
Weather thread, 12/19 - 12-22
- Thread starter snowcraig2.0
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With the exception of one GFS run from yesterday the models and ensembles have had this consistently south of Central Iowa the whole time.
Doesn't mean it won't change, but nothing has indicated yet that Central Iowa is a wise bet.
SE Iowa could see quite a bit, so it wouldn't take much to change however.
Doesn't mean it won't change, but nothing has indicated yet that Central Iowa is a wise bet.
SE Iowa could see quite a bit, so it wouldn't take much to change however.
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FdWx what are your thoughts for tomorrow night? We will be driving from Wichita to CR. Sadly can't leave ICT until 4:30ish.
To me it looks like possibly icy but low QPF so somewhat of a toss up.
To me it looks like possibly icy but low QPF so somewhat of a toss up.
Yeah it looks pretty gross tomorrow. Fog/Drizzle likely for much the day, and highs probably not topping 32 or 33.
Like you said, low totals, probably not much more than 0.05" but could put a light glaze, especially on the back roads.
Most of the day, all the saturation is at low, warm levels, so I don't think there will be any ice in the clouds which takes snow out of the equation until night.
My guess is the main roads will hold up better during the day, but off of those roads, or at night there will probably be some interesting stretches.
The GFS has pushed it back north, and is pegging the CR, IC and Dubuque area for up to a foot of snow.
But the 06z gfs today had 0.0"
Can't do too much with it right now with that wide of spread. Energy won't come on shore in Cali until Thursday night...so models will probably be all over the place until at least Friday morning
This run looks good for snow, and across the 3 major models as well. That said, it's one run against a history keeping the storm south, living and dying on one run is a good way to get burned. Added to that, even with good run, something the GFS is only putting out a 3-5 inch snowfall for Des Moines with amounts tapering off pretty quickly as you head NW. Still feel SE Iowa is a better bet on this one.
Can anyone post an updated model(s) for this storm. Im planning on heading home on Sunday (Eastern Iowa), and I just want to know if I am going to have to hang here in Ames for a couple extra days.
Any particular model at this point is pretty useless. They were pretty consistently south, now they've basically lost run-to-run consistency.
Things should narrow down some on Friday when the storm comes on shore.
Here are the last 6 GFS runs snow totals for Des Moines:
4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.3, 0.1
I thought we were good with my son flying into DM mid-morning Friday when I checked this morning. Now is it the middle of a snowstorm?:sad:
So, it looks like most of the conversation has been on the Sunday event. With the Thursday stuff will it suck to drive Ames-Minni Friday morning or should it all be past by then?
