WBB: **** No. 18 Iowa State vs. No. 21 Iowa - 8:00 PM FS1 GAME THREAD ****

BoxsterCy

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Who: No. 18 Iowa State (7-2, 0-0 Big 12) vs. No. 21 Iowa (8-1, 0-0 B10)
Where: Carver-Hawkeye Arena – Iowa City, Iowa
When: Wednesday, December 11, 2024 – 8:00 p.m. CT

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WATCH: FS1
PxP: Sloane Martin Analyst: Christy Winters Scott
LISTEN: Cyclone Radio Network – Varsity App or Radio Affiliates
PxP: Noah Wolf Analyst: Jamie Steyer Johnson
LIVE STATS

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BoxsterCy

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As confident as I am with the men’s game, I am opposite on the women’s. I predict Iowa to get hot from the outside and keep ISU at arms length all game.

Not their game so far this year. They haven't shown they can shoot the three at a good percentage yet. Nothing like the Hawk teams recently where you might have Clark, Marshall or Martin hit a bunch or at least a clutch one at a critical point. They've been quite good in the paint and their star scorer Lucy Olsen is a mid-range shooter/scorer.

Now if they do shoot lights out from three that could be very bad news for ISU. I just don't see it. Not sure who will win, just don't see them lighting it from long range. No odds from Vegas, sometime they do post WBB games but nothing I could find for this game. I won't touch betting on this one from either fan base!

Some misc tidbits:
  • We are 2-8 in last ten versus Iowa and have lost the last 8 in Carver. That surprised me as I am sort of still living with the perception that the home team stills wins most of these rival battles in Iowa.
  • ISU is shooting 33% from three and 69% from the line
  • Iowa is shooting 31% from and 75% from the line.
  • Iowa has 18 TO/game and ISU 16/game.
  • ISU makes 9 threes per game, Iowa is at 6 threes made pergame.
  • Both squads are at 40 rebounds a game.
 
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BoxsterCy

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Reposting this preview from a Hawk writer at 247. If you ignore the prediction that the Hawks win in the last paragraph the rest is a very good and objective preview. We know our gals, if you want to learn a little about this opponent it is worth a read. I always like to see how "we" are viewed from outside our fan base. It does include a detailed breakdown of Crooks percentages which was interesting.

 
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VeloClone

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Not their game so far this year. They haven't shown they can shoot the three at a good percentage yet. Nothing like the Hawk teams recently where you might have Clark, Marshall or Martin hit a bunch or at least a clutch one at a critical point. They've been quite good in the paint and their star scorer Lucy Olsen is a mid-range shooter/scorer.

Now if they do shoot lights out from three that could be very bad news for ISU. I just don't see it. Not sure who will win, just don't see them lighting it from long range. No odds from Vegas, sometime they do post WBB games but nothing I could find for this game. I won't touch betting on this one from either fan base!

Some misc tidbits:
  • We are 2-8 in last ten versus Iowa and have lost the last 8 in Carver. That surprised me as I am sort of still living with the perception that the home team stills wins most of these rival battles in Iowa.
  • ISU is shooting 33% from three and 69% from the line
  • Iowa is shooting 31% from and 75% from the line.
  • Iowa has 18 TO/game and ISU 16/game.
  • ISU makes 9 threes per game, Iowa is at 6 threes made pergame.
  • Both squads are at 40 rebounds a game.
Kind of curious how much the USC game skewed those ISU stats...

Who is the best team Iowa has played?

To answer my own question they have:
  • a neutral 10 pt. loss to NET 27 Tenn (Q1b) and
  • a neutral 19 pt. win over NET 54 Va Tech (Q2b).
  • All the rest of their games have been Q3 & Q4.
Iowa is NET 33.

ISU has:
  • a neutral 40 pt. loss to NET 1 S Carolina (Q1a),
  • a 16 pt. neutral win over NET 60 Middle Tenn (Q2b), and
  • a road 12 pt. loss to NET 69 UNI (Q2b).
  • All the rest of their games have been Q4.
ISU is NET 61.
 
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loyalsons4evertrue

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I think the key to this game is not turning the ball over....Iowa has shown that they can score quick in transition off of turnovers.

We'll have to play our best game of the year to have a shot tonight. Go Cyclones!
 
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coolerifyoudid

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Kind of curious how much the USC game skewed those ISU stats...

Who is the best team Iowa has played?

To answer my own question they have a neutral 10 pt. loss to NET 27 Tenn (Q1b) and a neutral 19 pt. win over NET xx Va Tech (Q2b). All the rest of their games have been Q3 & Q4. Iowa is NET 33.
It looks like they have actually played decent competition so far. They played KU in Sioux Falls, Va Tech in Charlotte, WAZZU, at Drake, Rhode Island and BYU in Cancun, and Tennessee in Brooklyn.

Tennessee was their toughest match and gave them their only loss, but they were tied at half and gave them a good game.

It isn't exactly Murderer's Row, but they have been battle tested in the non-con. We're gonna have our hands full. Hopefully, we can hit the 3 better than we have so far.
 

VeloClone

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It looks like they have actually played decent competition so far. They played KU in Sioux Falls, Va Tech in Charlotte, WAZZU, at Drake, Rhode Island and BYU in Cancun, and Tennessee in Brooklyn.

Tennessee was their toughest match and gave them their only loss, but they were tied at half and gave them a good game.

It isn't exactly Murderer's Row, but they have been battle tested in the non-con. We're gonna have our hands full. Hopefully, we can hit the 3 better than we have so far.
Currently those KU, BYU, and Drake games are all Q3.

I agree though, they have played the tougher schedule with the obvious exception of ISU's game with the current NET #1 USC which was never a game.
 

ZorkClone

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I think we are going to have to have a good shooting day from outside to win. I like Crooks downlow if she gets O'Grady at the post, but I fear she will be too slow defensively when they play Stuelke.
 
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Cupped

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I wish Iowa wasn't coming off a loss. ESPN Analytics has Iowa with a 78.2% chance of winning. Iowa natives: ISU 4, Hoks 3.
 

Cyfan1965

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8 pm is totally unnecessary. Even 7:30 would be better so I can get home at a reasonable hour. Trying to leave the sink hole parking lot is always a nightmare and the the season ticket holder I am going with pays a mint for it. Most of the gummers get dropped off on the hill no idea where their rides park.
 
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swclone11

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I could see any result, honestly. I think we have more potential for a surprise upside than them, though. I think its unlikely Iowa heats up from 3, more likely we do given the history of our players. Addy establishing herself in the paint could be key as well, like Sunday.
 
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BoxsterCy

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Kind of curious how much the USC game skewed those ISU stats...

Who is the best team Iowa has played?

To answer my own question they have:
  • a neutral 10 pt. loss to NET 27 Tenn (Q1b) and
  • a neutral 19 pt. win over NET 54 Va Tech (Q2b).
  • All the rest of their games have been Q3 & Q4.
Iowa is NET 33.

ISU has:
  • a neutral 40 pt. loss to NET 1 S Carolina (Q1a),
  • a 16 pt. neutral win over NET 60 Middle Tenn (Q2b), and
  • a road 12 pt. loss to NET 69 UNI (Q2b).
  • All the rest of their games have been Q4.
ISU is NET 61.

Sort of why I didn't include total scoring, total defense and FG %, those are too skewed early by differing levels of competition. Rebounds to but the #'s for Iowa and ISU are so similar to last year that those 40 rebounds per games seems legit.

I won't put much stock in NET's of Iowa/ISU or the NET of teams they have played. Early NET ratings are "developing" scores since they only include the games this year and nothing else (very small sample size) and can lead to some wild outliers.

Even with so many sophomores we are the more experienced team especially when it comes to playing together. Iowa is trying to incorporate a whole new slew of starters (one being their keystone player) and freshman. Olsen missing a couple of games probably hurt that development. Maybe offset by having so many away games early though. NET might later trump voted polls but voted polls are actually more accurate at this point of the season now that we are a few polls into it.
 

Clonehomer

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Saw the game was finally listed on Draft Kings. Bit surprised to see ISU +9.5. Out a unit on that and one on the moneyline at +380
 

BoxsterCy

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8 pm is totally unnecessary. Even 7:30 would be better so I can get home at a reasonable hour. Trying to leave the sink hole parking lot is always a nightmare and the the season ticket holder I am going with pays a mint for it. Most of the gummers get dropped off on the hill no idea where their rides park.

Necessary if you want national TV and not streaming on BTN+. Would have preferred the 6:00 TV slot especially since the lead in game is not an attraction for getting national viewers to stay tuned in for a 2nd game.