Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

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ISUCyclones2015

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just don’t see how much more or less the football team joining the B10, joining the Sec, or staying in the ACC really moves the needle academically. Either this is Sportsball money driven or it’s not. UVA and UNC don’t really get to decide which way that works.
Let me introduce you to the Big 10 Academic Alliance. They’re in charge of like 20% of all PhDs annually in the US. Plus share $10Billion in research annually.

Any university administrator would kill to be included in this.

You go to SEC for athletic reasons with a side of academic, you go to Big10 for Academic reasons with a side of athletics.
 
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spierceisu

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At what point do these conferences suffer from bloat? Not every program can be a winner. They’ll eventually develop a lot of dead weight.
I agree. For them to remain a non-profit, they have to spend the money they make. I guess they can spend more, but if it doesn't bring wins, which is what the point of competing in athletics is, I guess I don't get it.
 

Clark

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Jun 24, 2009
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I don’t buy it but let’s say that report is correct.

There is no value left in the ACC for the B1G that’s still AAU. With the SEC at 20, the B1G would put a press on Notre Dame (who’s semi-affiliated league is dying). I bet they would get ND. They’d need at least one more (Oregon). Possible that Washington and Stanford also come. Or maybe they say screw the AAU rule and add Miami.

The four mountain schools and possibly Washington join the Big 12 ASAP.

Interesting to think what happens to this 10-team ACC:

Miami
Georgia Tech
NC State
Duke
Wake Forest
Virginia Tech
Pitt
Louisville
Syracuse
Boston College

That league could stick together but there would be a 16-17 team Big 12 on its side trying to pick it apart as well when the B1G and SEC were in the 18-20 team range.

Miami is a really good academic school, I think they'd easily be accepted on academic grounds but Miami's problem is their ratings are really good when they are really good and pretty mediocre otherwise.

Stanford is also not in the AAU, they would also face no opposition on academic grounds. Their entrance to the Big 10 I think is solely predicated on ND being in the Big 10. If ND stays independent, I don't think the Big 10 would have much interest.
 

knowlesjam

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Oct 21, 2012
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Nothing newsworthy here.

Of course those schools want in that conference and of course they want to find a way out of their crappy GOR deal.

If they weren’t discussing and exploring, than the ADs, Presidents, and conference officials would be neglecting their job.

But everything I’ve read makes the GOR seem pretty hard to get around. And nobody has shown me yet what incentive ESPN would have to willing destroy their sweetheart deal.

I just can’t take any ACC explosion talk seriously until I’ve seen from reputable sources that either the GOR is escapable, or that ESPN would let them out.
Exit fee is $53M. Difference the first year between SEC payout and ACC payout is $40M+...two years and you are in the clear. If eight teams vote to dissolve...bam, no more ACC and no more exit fees.
 

Gonzo

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Mar 10, 2009
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Fair point on the GOR being created by the conference.

But ESPN is getting Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, and Virginia currently at a fraction of the cost that they’d pay them in the SEC,
not to mention all the other well priced ACC inventory from the other schools. Not sure why they’d want to void it.

I’ve heard people make the argument about destroying the conference if enough teams leave, but we heard the same thing about the Big 12 (with a nearly identical GOR) and here we still are today.

If 6 or 7 teams leave the ACC, what’s to stop the leftovers from raiding the AAC and cashing in the GOR checks?
Agree but there are few current ACC matchups that are all that compelling. Clemson in the SEC instantly creates several must-see regular season conference matchups v. Bama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Florida, etc. There's a lot of value in that.
 

CascadeClone

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Oct 24, 2009
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I was thinking and anyone can respond to this:

Who has more power in this whole situation? Big 10 or SEC? I feel like the prevailing thought here in CF is B10, but that could be proximity/familiarity bias?
FOX, then ESPN.
The networks are pulling the strings.
 
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BigDH01

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Fair point on the GOR being created by the conference.

But ESPN is getting Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, and Virginia currently at a fraction of the cost that they’d pay them in the SEC, not to mention all the other well priced ACC inventory from the other schools. Not sure why they’d want to void it.

I’ve heard people make the argument about destroying the conference if enough teams leave, but we heard the same thing about the Big 12 (with a nearly identical GOR) and here we still are today.

If 6 or 7 teams leave the ACC, what’s to stop the leftovers from raiding the AAC and cashing in the GOR checks?
I'm guessing the thinking goes like this: although they get those ACC games cheap it's also not pulling in the viewership they could be. While it would be more expensive to pay Clemson in the SEC, imagine a regular season Alabama-Clemson game. If I'm a TV executive who doesn't really care about CFB I'm drooling over those numbers.

As a normal CFB fan I find this abhorrent because the TV execs are pairing the biggest names even if it destroys natural, geographic, and long-running rivalries. Those are the types of games we care about. Only time will tell if interest will wane after those rivalries are gone or not.
 

2speedy1

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Jan 4, 2014
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What sources?

Man Big 12 could really pick and choose from leftovers of ACC and PAC to be very solid conference unless Big Ten and SEC somehow think they need to be 24 team conferences (not sure why they’d ever feel the need to be near 50 teams total)…and at that point ISU would be in play anyway although certainly not a lock.
ISU would not be in the conversation even if the SEC and Big 10 go to 24, Sure if it were a full redraft of all schools maybe, but it wont, at least not for a while.

The truth is they would need to go above that number by several before ISU gets into either. The trouble is, ISU wont get in because teams like Rutgers, Maryland, Vandy, Indiana, Arkansas, Miss St etc. all have grandfathered spots.

At some point we might get to that, but not for a while.
 

Die4Cy

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Jan 2, 2010
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Wouldn't this be incredibly dumb for ESPN to do, considering they have those teams locked up currently for a long term at a fixed price and them leaving the ACC for the SEC would ultimately cost ESPN more?

The only angle would be to head off the Big Ten taking them instead which would move those ACC properties away from ESPN to favoring FOX much more.

Yesterday everybody was all in a tizzy that the ACC and PAC were going to combine their TV networks (and profit!) but today both networks are headed to collapse. Gotta love summer realignment season.
 

CascadeClone

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Oct 24, 2009
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Fair point on the GOR being created by the conference.

But ESPN is getting Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, and Virginia currently at a fraction of the cost that they’d pay them in the SEC, not to mention all the other well priced ACC inventory from the other schools. Not sure why they’d want to void it.

I’ve heard people make the argument about destroying the conference if enough teams leave, but we heard the same thing about the Big 12 (with a nearly identical GOR) and here we still are today.

If 6 or 7 teams leave the ACC, what’s to stop the leftovers from raiding the AAC and cashing in the GOR checks?
You move them to the SEC to lock up that prime content before Fox (b1g) get it.

And you only need 8 to vote to dissolve, from what i found online.

Long term you pay more for 4 teams but nothing for the other 10. You get the good stuff and save money overall.
 
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Clonehomer

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Exit fee is $53M. Difference the first year between SEC payout and ACC payout is $40M+...two years and you are in the clear. If eight teams vote to dissolve...bam, no more ACC and no more exit fees.

Where'd you see that exit fee? Is that just to leave the conference or to get out of the GOR? A GOR would state that the ACC would retain their media rights even if they left for the SEC. So while it may cost $53M to leave the conference, they wouldn't be all that valuable to the SEC for another 10 years.
 

HFCS

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Let's hypothetically say these are the moves:
B1G: USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame
SEC: UVA, UNC, Clemson, FSU

What teams do you add to Big 12 and how big do you go? Those moves power 2 to 20 each.

I'd say let's go to 20 as well with 8 invites:

AZ/ASU/Utah/Colorado (the mountain 4 everyone is talking about)
Miami
Pitt
Georgia Tech
Va Tech

On deck: Cal, Louisville, NC State, Duke,

Big 12 becomes coast to coast except no new england and no pacific northwest.
 

ISUCyclones2015

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Let's hypothetically say these are the moves:
B1G: USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame
SEC: UVA, UNC, Clemson, FSU

What teams do you add to Big 12 and how big do you go? Those moves power 2 to 20 each.

I'd say let's go to 20 as well with 8 invites:

AZ/ASU/Utah/Colorado (the mountain 4 everyone is talking about)
Miami
Pitt
Georgia Tech
Va Tech

On deck: Cal, Louisville, NC State, Duke,

Big 12 becomes coast to coast except no new england and no pacific northwest.
I would flip Louisville and Georgia Tech personally
 

spierceisu

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Wouldn't this be incredibly dumb for ESPN to do, considering they have those teams locked up currently for a long term at a fixed price and them leaving the ACC for the SEC would ultimately cost ESPN more?

The only angle would be to head off the Big Ten taking them instead which would move those ACC properties away from ESPN to favoring FOX much more.

Yesterday everybody was all in a tizzy that the ACC and PAC were going to combine their TV networks (and profit!) but today both networks are headed to collapse. Gotta love summer realignment season.
FWIW, I heard on Miller and Condon this morning the ACC network (owned by ESPN) is loosing a ton of money. Maybe it makes more sense to only pay the 4 schools rumored to be leaving than the entire conference.
 

cyIclSoneU

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Miami is a really good academic school, I think they'd easily be accepted on academic grounds but Miami's problem is their ratings are really good when they are really good and pretty mediocre otherwise.

Stanford is also not in the AAU, they would also face no opposition on academic grounds. Their entrance to the Big 10 I think is solely predicated on ND being in the Big 10. If ND stays independent, I don't think the Big 10 would have much interest.
If the swimmer man is correct then I could absolutely see Washington, Oregon, Miami, and Notre Dame go to the B1G. It’s their only way into Florida and still has a huge fanbase.

The Big 12 could end up with the 4 corner schools plus VaTech, NC State, Pitt, and then 1-3 of Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, Georgia Tech. B1G and SEC at 20, Big 12 at 20-22.

Equally as likely as any outcome IMO because who knows
 

Stormin

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Apr 11, 2006
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The lesson learned is that there is no such thing as an “Alliance”. There are no friendly Conferences. There are no friends. The Big 12 is most stable of the non-P2. Those schools understand they are wanted by no one else. As a collective group they provide the best opportunity for their mutual benefit. The Big 12 will be the #3 Conference. Time for the decision to be part of the #3 or become a newer version of the Mountain West.
 

HFCS

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ISU would not be in the conversation even if the SEC and Big 10 go to 24, Sure if it were a full redraft of all schools maybe, but it wont, at least not for a while.

The truth is they would need to go above that number by several before ISU gets into either. The trouble is, ISU wont get in because teams like Rutgers, Maryland, Vandy, Indiana, Arkansas, Miss St etc. all have grandfathered spots.

At some point we might get to that, but not for a while.

I don't know. I just did hypothetical of the most likely 20 team SEC and Big Ten according to rumors.

There are 3-4 leftovers from the ACC (if we believe rumored 4) that would be obvious before ISU and maybe KU is obvious before ISU...then it's things like are we better than NC State? 2-3 of the mountain schools moving to Big Ten/SEC before ISU is probably obvious. So we're talking a total of about 8 teams that might be better than ISU if those leagues went to 48...ISU is not RADICALLY far away from that. Most likely we'd be on a 'last team out' list, not miles away, and we'd only be 'last team out' because Big Ten already has our legacy tv market. If it was really about streaming eyes ISU is total lock for top 48.

anything near 50 or above 50 and you're reaching into schools that have no actual eyeballs and no actual fan support.
 

besserheimerphat

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Apr 11, 2006
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Yeah, I'm really curious what USC and UCLA was told by the Big 10 and if just the two of them is what they signed off on as the plan. But I guess it's also true that Seattle is not that much closer to LA than Lincoln or Iowa City.
About 1500 miles to drive from Seattle to LA. About 1800 miles to drive from Seattle to Iowa City.