USC/UCLA to the Big Ten in 24?

[cyIclSoneU]

Imho the Big12 isnt adding to add net positive value to the tv contract, like B1G is saying. They need to add so they have numbers for stability, and to have enough critical mass to have a leading voice during the next paradigm shift, ie when the superleague happens. If the Big12 is a large coherent group of the 2nd tier, then they will have the chance to shape the 2nd tier system.

Agreed, it's important for the Big 12 to kill the Pac-12 with its moves here and also to be in a position where the ACC leftovers, post B1G and SEC raid of that league, have no choice but to join the Big 12 (if we want them).

College sports is changing so fast; the Big 12 needs to seize its chance to lock in its status among the top 3 leagues when this long round ends. Just too bad the first 2 will be so far ahead.

 

[Trice]

Ouch. As you note, Stanford is excellent in non-revenue sports, so your point is clear, but damn is it jarring to read they’re a virtual non-entity athletically.

They’ve won 25 out of 27 Director’s Cups and finished second the two times they didn’t win!

I thought the context there was obvious enough it didn't need to be said. But just in case: Stanford is a virtual non-entity athletically for the purposes of this conversation about conference realignment.

Which is clearly true - I haven't seen one informed person suggest they'll end up in the B1G.

Obviously they have one of the best brands in American higher ed, and in NCAA athletics. Which is why I think they'd be too tempting to overlook, even if the numbers don't quite add up.

 

[BCClone]

Three things will kill the PAC or at least drop them down to AAC level.

1). Big ten takes anymore, even one.

2). Big 12 grabs ASU and Utah (I would do two and see what it forces the others to do)

3). The Oregon and Wash lawmakers tie their state schools together. Big ten are not taking the state schools. The big XII wouldn’t want them and then could do number 2 and watch the conference starve.

 

[JUKEBOX]

If ESPN wants Clemson and Florida State in the SEC, the grant of rights disappears and the league is free to be poached

You know there are big time lawyers that can't wait to get their crack at the GOR agreements.

I think what I read is that the money that the new "SEC" or "B1G" could get from the networks could be so high that the buyout from the ACC GOR would be something schools that get invited to one of those conferences could easily pay off and come out way ahead in the next 30 years.

So I guess if that's true, we'll see the ACC blow up very soon. If that's not accurate, I think it's alive for another decade until the GOR expiration.

 

[cayin]

Agreed, it's important for the Big 12 to kill the Pac-12 with its moves here and also to be in a position where the ACC leftovers, post B1G and SEC raid of that league, have no choice but to join the Big 12 (if we want them).

College sports is changing so fast; the Big 12 needs to seize its chance to lock in its status among the top 3 leagues when this long round ends. Just too bad the first 2 will be so far ahead.

There won't be a top 3 for power 5 teams, just a top two. Whoever can get into the SEC and Big 10 is the P5 league. Whatever league is left after that, the leftovers from the Big 12, Pac 12, and ACC will be regulated to what we now consider G5. Why would the SEC and Big want to share playoff spots and playoff money for a 3rd league? They wouldn't. This is angling towards those two setting things up to maximize the money involved in this whole thing.

 

[BCClone]

The more I think about this (and drink whiskey) the better I think ISU fares than Iowa realistically. ISU probably has a better chance in a 3rd tier conference making a future iteration of the CFP.

Once the dust settles, they are more than likely (95%) going to be a part of that 3rd conference. There’s probably a better chance that they come out on top for a conference championship over say Baylor or Colorado or Arizona State on an annual basis then Iowa finishing 2nd or 3rd in the B10 with OSU, Michigan, USC, Penn St, and Wisconsin .

The only real pause for concern is whether the Big Ten and SEC goes for the jugular And essentially creates their own championship. Dear God I hope that doesn’t happen and I think 99% of fans would agree with that. Even the ones that view themselves at the top of the pecking order. All of this makes me morose because it’s destroying a lot of the things that I loved about college football. The bowls, arbitrary banter over conference superiority, rivalries… Unfortunately they’re going to have to learn the hard way and realize that they in the long-term are going to have a depleteing dollar over a loss of interest. I just hope they can find their way back somehow.

Yeah, if a super conference happens where does that out Iowa? With the two new additions, Iowa would be in that 8-9 slot at best. (Depends if they want larger states, that would drop them more). ORegon and Washington would be above them wherever they are. Throw in 3-4 ACC schools, 9-10 SEC schools and you have 22 right there. Possible they take 1-2 big XII teams and that would be 24. Do you want to be the punching bag that gets 175 MM a year to go 2-10/3-9 regularly?

 

[BCClone]

There won't be a top 3 for power 5 teams, just a top two. Whoever can get into the SEC and Big 10 is the P5 league. Whatever league is left after that, the leftovers from the Big 12, Pac 12, and ACC will be regulated to what we now consider G5. Why would the SEC and Big want to share playoff spots and playoff money for a 3rd league? They wouldn't. This is angling towards those two setting things up to maximize the money involved in this whole thing.

So you think after the CCG games, that there will be a 16 team playoff with 8 teams from each conference? That would not draw much until the championship. If you have other teams in there, it would draw viewership

 

[JUKEBOX]

There won't be a top 3 for power 5 teams, just a top two. Whoever can get into the SEC and Big 10 is the P5 league. Whatever league is left after that, the leftovers from the Big 12, Pac 12, and ACC will be regulated to what we now consider G5. Why would the SEC and Big want to share playoff spots and playoff money for a 3rd league? They wouldn't. This is angling towards those two setting things up to maximize the money involved in this whole thing.

Yes it seems like basically another tier is being added to college football.

1. NFL-lite tier (B1G, SEC) - salaried players, probably own playoff/championship
2. Traditional college football tier (B12) - probably resembles college football closer to pre-NIL
3. G5 conferences (Regular ones plus probably Pac 12 and ACC after poaching done from B1G, SEC, and B12)
4. FCS

Something like that. Star players from the lower-tier leagues will probably get promoted / paid to join the higher tier leagues.

At least this is what it seems like what's going to happen to me.

 

[cayin]

So you think after the CCG games, that there will be a 16 team playoff with 8 teams from each conference? That would not draw much until the championship. If you have other teams in there, it would draw viewership

Not sure how the playoffs would work, but it may be kind of like basketball, a lot of team will get an invite. With this probably 40 team super conference set up, 8-12 teams would make the playoffs. I'm sure the best would get by rounds and home games.

 

[BCClone]

Not sure how the playoffs would work, but it may be kind of like basketball, a lot of team will get an invite. With this probably 40 team super conference set up, 8-12 teams would make the playoffs. I'm sure the best would get by rounds and home games.

You mentioned that the super conference wouldn’t want to split the playoff money with the others, that would mean all 8-12 would come from there. I see that flopping.

 

[JP4CY]

Three things will kill the PAC or at least drop them down to AAC level.

1). Big ten takes anymore, even one.

2). Big 12 grabs ASU and Utah (I would do two and see what it forces the others to do)

3). The Oregon and Wash lawmakers tie their state schools together. Big ten are not taking the state schools. The big XII wouldn’t want them and then could do number 2 and watch the conference starve.

I think this is spot on.
I think you could also include Notre Dame saying No but that ties in with first point.

 

[cayin]

You mentioned that the super conference wouldn’t want to split the playoff money with the others, that would mean all 8-12 would come from there. I see that flopping.

if it is 8-12 teams from the super conference that are in the playoff, and none from anywhere else, they are not sharing any playoff money.

 

[BCClone]

if it is 8-12 teams from the super conference that are in the playoff, and none from anywhere else, they are not sharing any playoff money.

And that would suck and flop.

 

[HoopsTournament]

There won't be a top 3 for power 5 teams, just a top two. Whoever can get into the SEC and Big 10 is the P5 league. Whatever league is left after that, the leftovers from the Big 12, Pac 12, and ACC will be regulated to what we now consider G5. Why would the SEC and Big want to share playoff spots and playoff money for a 3rd league? They wouldn't. This is angling towards those two setting things up to maximize the money involved in this whole thing.

That’s only the case if they pull away into a different division. Until then, they are only two votes. They don’t get votes in proportion to the money.

 

[theshadow]

They’ve won 25 out of 27 Director’s Cups and finished second the two times they didn’t win!

Which is largely a function of offering over 30 sports, including a bunch that have small national participation. It's easy to rack up Directors Cup points in sports like men's gymnastics where there are less than 15 teams.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

There won't be a top 3 for power 5 teams, just a top two. Whoever can get into the SEC and Big 10 is the P5 league. Whatever league is left after that, the leftovers from the Big 12, Pac 12, and ACC will be regulated to what we now consider G5. Why would the SEC and Big want to share playoff spots and playoff money for a 3rd league? They wouldn't. This is angling towards those two setting things up to maximize the money involved in this whole thing.

There will be a top 3 and a top 2. There is a huge difference between Arizona, Utah, Kansas, Texas Tech, perhaps schools like NC State or Pitt, than the G5. The Big 12 will have a large gap behind it and in front of it. Maybe one day the SEC and B1G will fully break off, but that day is not now and the Big 12 remains in the picture. I expect that the league with a collection of major state universities (not directionals like G5) is going to remain in the sport.

 

[cayin]

There will be a top 3 and a top 2. There is a huge difference between Arizona, Utah, Kansas, Texas Tech, perhaps schools like NC State or Pitt, than the G5. The Big 12 will have a large gap behind it and in front of it. Maybe one day the SEC and B1G will fully break off, but that day is not now and the Big 12 remains in the picture. I expect that the league with a collection of major state universities (not directionals like G5) is going to remain in the sport.

I hope you are right. But we if the TV networks are calling the shots, I can't see them letting the Big 12 or whatever is left outside the SEC and BIG, play in the big boy pool. Heck, ESPN already tried to get the remaining Big 12 to merge with G5 and pay us accordingly. That shows how they think.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

If the bar for being added to the B10 is 100 million, so revenue by adding them does not drop the payout of each team, then the only team that is going to being in that type of money to anyone is ND.

It was not long ago that B10 fans were saying that unless your school brought in at least 50 million it was not getting an invite, now the bar is 100 million?

Maybe the schools in the B10 are just going to have to lower expectations a little and stop talking about 100 to 120 million per school and get a little bit less greedy and say 90 million per year will be fine.

 

[isuno1fan]

And that would suck and flop.

Would suck but by no means believe it would flop.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1543222854598148102