Playing at a classic course at Torrey Pines. Phil is the big story coming in but I don’t think he is in contention. Dechambeau is probably the favorite with the setup (skinny fairways, crazy tall rough). Morikawa is my “sleeper” pick. Rahm is the only non-major champion that I see with a chance.
US Open Week
- Thread starter Gunnerclone
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Pretty excited for this, and there are several good groups to follow: Morikawa/Thomas/Koepka, Zalatoris/Scheffler/Spieth, Johnson/McIlroy/Rose
Wouldn't be surprised to see the winner come out of one of those groups. My early pick is Justin Thomas.
Wouldn't be surprised to see the winner come out of one of those groups. My early pick is Justin Thomas.
I definitely would not say Dechambeau is the favorite. Rough will be worse than winged foot last year and that doesn’t bode well for a guy who is like 171st in driving accuracy. The ones who will be in the fairway will be towards the top of the leaderboard.
A drive of 300 into the fairway will almost always lead to a better score than a drive of 350 into deep rough. Unless he's really accurate this week, his scorecard is going to be all over the place.
Did no one watch what Bryson did last year at this tournament? Let’s say it’s a 475 par 4. Bryson is in the rough 115 yards away. Player B is in the fairway with 175 left. That is a HUGE advantage to Bryson. That’s why every expert is picking him to win or crying about how they need to change the US Open set ups because it’s a huge advantage for him.
I did, but the fear that they needed to remake courses to deal with him was a bit premature. If you're playing out of the rough consistently, you need greens that are very receptive, or that have open fronts where you can run them on. I could be wrong, but that's not my impression of this course.
I like Patrick Reed’s chances this week. Won the Farmers Insurance at Torrey Pines. I know people hate him but it seems like he always plays decently well at majors.
Pulling for Brooks this week. I might have put a couple bucks on the boost from William Hill of him winning the US Open and France winning the Euros at +10000. Might have.
Golf (and horse racing), for me, is one of the hardest to pick a winner. So I go with who's trending / momentum. I'm usually never close.
Who's hot, likely winner: Cantalay, Rahm, Hovaland, Speith.
Contender: Bryson, DJ, JordanS
DarkHorse: Morikawa, Ancer
Who's hot, likely winner: Cantalay, Rahm, Hovaland, Speith.
Contender: Bryson, DJ, JordanS
DarkHorse: Morikawa, Ancer
The butt hurt will be outstanding if Bryson wins this week … must see TV!!!
Certainly did. Torrey Pines will be thinner fairways and deeper rough, along with former greens. All this equates to more difficulty for Bryson if he’s in the rough consistently.
Another thing is that Bryson’s shorter wedge game and putting was amazing at winged foot. He has not been that guy since he won last year. He might put it together but it seems more likely that he won’t.
Rahm is the betting favorite (at least on DK) at +1000
Bryson, DJ, and Xander all at +1400
Bryson, DJ, and Xander all at +1400
So more people are going to be in the rough, but have longer shots into the green? Sounds like advantage Bryson.
Wrong. Smaller fairways mean more people miss and when more people miss, distance is the advantage. Thick rough isn't the answer. The answer is firm, fast courses with rough that creates inconsistent lies that are unpredictable.
They did this 20 years ago with Tiger. Make it longer, narrower, with thicker rough and you play into the hands of distance.
Thank you. I didnt know if I wasn’t getting the message through or if people just don’t understand golf.
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