Up to #17 in AP

SolarGarlic

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I don't know what goes into the "Luck" category on KenPom, but I think it's interesting that we are 76th right now. During Prohm's tenure, we were always in the 300s. It was actually used by many fans to rationalize the poor play. I'm beginning to think it's more a reflection of the style we played then compared to how we're playing now. Again, just a theory, but is it a coincidence that better defense, fundamentals, and team play has correlated with a better "Luck" rating? Maybe it's the ability to close a contested game? "Toughness", perhaps.

We were 349th last season, nearly the "unluckiest" team in college basketball, according to KenPom.
337th in 2020
316th in 2019 (despite being 15th overall)
200th in 2018
 
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CloniesForLife

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I don't know what goes into the "Luck" category on KenPom, but I think it's interesting that we are 76th right now. During Prohm's tenure, we were always in the 300s. It was actually used by many fans to rationalize the poor play. I'm beginning to think it's more a reflection of the style we played then compared to how we're playing now. Again, just a theory, but is it a coincidence that better defense, fundamentals, and team play has produced a better "Luck" rating? Maybe it's the ability to close a contested game? "Toughness", perhaps.

We were 349th last season, nearly the "unluckiest" team in college basketball, according to KenPom.
337th in 2020
316th in 2019 (despite being 15th overall)
200th in 2018
I am guessing luck involves 50/50 balls and other little things that Prohm's teams sucked at. Plus they were really bad at the end of games.
 

madguy30

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Like in football, the more fundamentally sound team tends to get the bounces or turnovers etc.

ISU's been as sound fundamentally as I can remember so far. Even as bad as the offense is at times, the shots are usually good available shots; they just don't fall.
 
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Clonefan32

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I have no idea how you quantify "luck". Things like 50/50 balls are not luck, in my opinion. I think the only things that could be attributed to luck is maybe injuries.
 
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VeloClone

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Yeah, "luck" is a bad term for the nebulous stat they are trying to quantify. I get how they settled on it since it is so ethereal and hard to label. But you would think that even an "intangibles" title might get the point across that it is maybe more a quality of the team more than the whim of fate.
 
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srjclone

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Like in football, the more fundamentally sound team tends to get the bounces or turnovers etc.

ISU's been as sound fundamentally as I can remember so far. Even as bad as the offense is at times, the shots are usually good available shots; they just don't fall.
It's like Scott C has been saying, the action is good, the shots are there. We run our offense well and through the entire shot clock when we need to, we just aren't a lights out shooting team. Streaks of little to no scoring will happen, but as long as they continue to be committed to running the O well and getting good looks, the shots will fall.
 
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SeventhSon

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For what I remember, "Luck" is a measure of how the team performs in close games. If they are perpetually on the win side of close games, they are "lucky", etc.

So if you're "lucky", you perform well under pressure but maybe also you tend to put yourself in pressure situations a lot.
 
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SolarGarlic

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I have no idea how you quantify "luck". Things like 50/50 balls are not luck, in my opinion. I think the only things that could be attributed to luck is maybe injuries.
From the KenPom website, luck is "the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method."

I'm not a statistician, but I could see how losing a lot of close games would be "unlucky." In reality, some coaches and teams lack the mental toughness to win close games. Stat nerds don't buy mental toughness as a factor though. The players are just a bunch of emotionless droids who eventually throw the ball at the hoop enough times to be able to be accurately predicted.
 

Cydkar

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Apr 12, 2006
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For what I remember, "Luck" is a measure of how the team performs in close games. If they are perpetually on the win side of close games, they are "lucky", etc.

So if you're "lucky", you perform well under pressure but maybe also you tend to put yourself in pressure situations a lot.
Last year, all the luck was used up by being in a close game in the first place.
 

Clonefan32

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And see, none of those things you've described I would constitute as "luck".
 

WhoISthis

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Oct 6, 2010
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I don't know what goes into the "Luck" category on KenPom, but I think it's interesting that we are 76th right now. During Prohm's tenure, we were always in the 300s. It was actually used by many fans to rationalize the poor play. I'm beginning to think it's more a reflection of the style we played then compared to how we're playing now. Again, just a theory, but is it a coincidence that better defense, fundamentals, and team play has correlated with a better "Luck" rating? Maybe it's the ability to close a contested game? "Toughness", perhaps.

We were 349th last season, nearly the "unluckiest" team in college basketball, according to KenPom.
337th in 2020
316th in 2019 (despite being 15th overall)
200th in 2018
Luck is a catch all, often quality of coaching.
 

BryceC

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From the KenPom website, luck is "the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method."

I'm not a statistician, but I could see how losing a lot of close games would be "unlucky." In reality, some coaches and teams lack the mental toughness to win close games. Stat nerds don't buy mental toughness as a factor though. The players are just a bunch of emotionless droids who eventually throw the ball at the hoop enough times to be able to be accurately predicted.
Correct, people fundamentally misunderstand his Luck stat. All it's saying is - "my statistical model said ISU would win more games than they did". That's all. It has nothing to do with plays or anything like that.
 
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madguy30

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From the KenPom website, luck is "the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method."

I'm not a statistician, but I could see how losing a lot of close games would be "unlucky." In reality, some coaches and teams lack the mental toughness to win close games. Stat nerds don't buy mental toughness as a factor though. The players are just a bunch of emotionless droids who eventually throw the ball at the hoop enough times to be able to be accurately predicted.
I think the last four minutes (1st half) and first four minutes (2nd half) are seen as crucial parts of the game, and I'd have to go back and look but the last few years, it seems like those were not strengths, along with closing out a close game. Like if ISU was down 3 with even 2 minutes left, you could just tell they weren't going to push through it.

Some of that is luck but if it's a trend the technique has to factor in.
 

Gunnerclone

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Jul 16, 2010
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ISU needs to make them pay for pressing. I watched the second half of that Illinois game. The Illini would break the press and have a 3 on 1 or 3 on 2 and would bring it back out rather than forcing the issue. If there is no penalty for pressing why would you ever stop?
There’s another layer to that…dictating tempo, and forcing a team to sit down and guard. Iowa wants you to get sped up and play with them in the 80’s. Best way to stop that? Limit possessions, second way to stop that, make them expend energy on the defensive end.
 

mitten1975

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Oct 27, 2012
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I’ve stopped pulling against Baylor, I tried on moral grounds but now I realize they just win no matter what.

A few times a year I’ll observe them vs ISU and hope for the best but in other games I just assume they are an unstoppable juggernaut I should ignore regardless of scandals and coaching changes.
They are a school that doesn't have to have morals, they are Baptist and saved by grace.
 

CycloneErik

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I'm thrilled with the season so far and very happy with the results.


Just to put in perspective though Oregon State is 1-8. Xavier was a good win. Luckily they were down two starters. Memphis was way overrated. They also lost to Georgia who is 3-5. Creighton lost to Colorado State by 14 and beat southern Illinois by 2, and SIUE by 5.


Not trying to rain on our parade or anything, just trying to help people realize that it's possible we are beating mostly average to bad teams. I'm still very happy with our start regardless.
Just to put it in perspective, we lost to average, bad, and pathetic teams last year.
 

davegilbertson

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"Pressure makes diamonds.
Tough times never last, but tough people do.
Luck is for cowards."

- Sun Tzu
 

AuH2O

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Correct, people fundamentally misunderstand his Luck stat. All it's saying is - "my statistical model said ISU would win more games than they did". That's all. It has nothing to do with plays or anything like that.
Correct - it's dumb to label it as that, and it's the biggest reason for discrepancy in actual performance, SOS and predictive models like KenPom. I think it's very useful early in the season when their aren't many data points. By the end of the season when you have a ton of SoS and W/L data using these analytics as a big factor in seeding teams in the NCAA tournament doesn't make a lot of sense.

A great example is those choking, collapsing Iowa teams from a few years ago. When the game was in hand they would pour it on and win big. When the games were close, their spastic coach would lose his ****, their best players would go into hiding in big moments, and they would lose almost all the close games. Everyone could see what was happening, and it sure as hell would not be described as "luck." But of course because of that those teams were KenPom darlings that were just "unlucky."
 

VeloClone

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There’s another layer to that…dictating tempo, and forcing a team to sit down and guard. Iowa wants you to get sped up and play with them in the 80’s. Best way to stop that? Limit possessions, second way to stop that, make them expend energy on the defensive end.
Fair enough. That is where you take it if it is there and pull it out and make them defend when it isn't. Pulling out of a 3 on 1 so Iowa can set up their defense is a losing proposition when they are getting breakaway turnovers off of that press every 3rd or 4th possession.
 

Gunnerclone

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Fair enough. That is where you take it if it is there and pull it out and make them defend when it isn't. Pulling out of a 3 on 1 so Iowa can set up their defense is a losing proposition when they are getting breakaway turnovers off of that press every 3rd or 4th possession.
Depends on what the score is at the time.
 

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