Thamel: The lean towards a 12-team playoff

[knowlesjam]

Okay, I'm going to ruffle a couple of feathers here, but what entitles the G5 to get an auto slot? P5 each get a slot for their championship game winners and then determine the next 7 via computer. Why computer? Because there is bias from the media that wants to over rank G5 teams. Put any of those G5 teams in a P5 and no way they have the same record. If a G5 team qualifies via the computer rankings...great...maybe they get 2 on occasion...but an autobid? In normal years (not COVID), year in...year out...you are going to easily get 12 teams from the P5
- Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M, Florida, Auburn
- Clemson, Notre Dame, Miami, Florida State
- Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin
- Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State...Heck, maybe even ISU
- Oregon, USC, Utah, Colorado

That's 20+ teams that normally will be better than any G5 team.

Also, I think that expanding to 12 or even 16 is the NCAA's final play to keep the P5 conference football teams part of their "process" and not break away into their own super conference...keeping the playoff teams at 4 was a big negative to staying under the thumb of the NCAA.

 

[clone52]

Coastal Carolina would not have made it last year. Oregon would have.

 

[exCYtable]

Endorsement deals and paying athletes and conference realignment over the next few years will probably be a much bigger deal than a 12 team playoff.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Okay, I'm going to ruffle a couple of feathers here, but what entitles the G5 to get an auto slot? P5 each get a slot for their championship game winners and then determine the next 7 via computer. Why computer? Because there is bias from the media that wants to over rank G5 teams. Put any of those G5 teams in a P5 and no way they have the same record. If a G5 team qualifies via the computer rankings...great...maybe they get 2 on occasion...but an autobid? In normal years (not COVID), year in...year out...you are going to easily get 12 teams from the P5
- Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M, Florida, Auburn
- Clemson, Notre Dame, Miami, Florida State
- Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin
- Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State...Heck, maybe even ISU
- Oregon, USC, Utah, Colorado

That's 20+ teams that normally will be better than any G5 team.

Also, I think that expanding to 12 or even 16 is the NCAA's final play to keep the P5 conference football teams part of their "process" and not break away into their own super conference...keeping the playoff teams at 4 was a big negative to staying under the thumb of the NCAA.

On field? Nothing.

Off field? The CFP not wanting to get pulled into what would be a billion dollar lawsuit for not granting access to every FBS team.

 

[knowlesjam]

On field? Nothing.

Off field? The CFP not wanting to get pulled into what would be a billion dollar lawsuit for not granting access to every FBS team.

They can have their own party (tourney), just like NAIA, Div 3, Div 2, and the like. And, if the P5 teams split away, no lawsuit. Plus, they still have access, getting in if they have one or more of the 7 wildcards.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

First, ISU last year was 6th after getting beat handily by a Sun Belt team and losing to a meh Okie State team. In fact, ISU has ALWAYS been viewed favorably by the CFP committee vs. pretty much every other team w/ the same number of losses.

Second, some people may have said Iowa didn't deserve to get in if they won the Big10 in 2015 or whatever year that was, but they were getting in and they weren't close to getting jumped had they beat MSU. They were #4 going in vs. #5 MSU. If they won they were getting in without a doubt. While plenty of people thought there were teams better than MSU and Iowa, there was not legitimate argument based on resume for keeping out MSU. Winner of that game was getting in no matter what else happened.

Finally, this TCU got screwed when tOSU got in narrative like it was some blatant robbery for all to see just isn't the case. So the committee could choose TCU, but do they pick them over Baylor, who had the same record and won the head to head? If they decide they go head to head and pick Baylor, do they pick them ahead of OSU, whose loss was the first game of the season and had a better SOS? Now of course the committee and media would much rather have OSU, but picking TCU was not clear at all because of the Baylor head-to-head issue. Picking Baylor raises the SOS and timing of loss issue. So it was never very clear cut like people here like to think.

TCU was 3rd in the playoff ranking the day they crushed ISU on Championship game Saturday, and Baylor was also highly ranked. OSU was 5th or 6th and jumped TCU.
You are correct that Baylor had a weak SOS, but they had only lost one game, and so had TCU. The fix was in, for all to see.

 

[isucy86]

I don't see a need for a 12 team playoff with the current Conference Championship game structure. The CCG's are essentially a playoff game. Sure there are exceptions where a CCG loser makes the 4 team playoff, but in any one year it is 1 team.

I prefer an 8 team structure with the 5 conference game champs getting an automatic bid and then the next 3 highest ranked non-conference champs.

I would put the onus on G5 conferences to raise their stature. Encourage something similar to the Big12/SEC Challenge in basketball where the top AAC, MWC, MAC & Sunbelt teams play non-conference games. I would be great if G5 teams could schedule top 15 P5 teams, but in football where schedules are set 5-7 years in advance, it may be tough.

If the AD's go with a 12 team playoff, then they should discontinue Conference Championship Games. Looking at last year the CCG losers among Iowa State, Florida and Northwestern, they could very well have fell out of a 12 team playoff and replaced by idle teams like Texas A&M, Georgia or Indiana.

 

[AuH2O]

TCU was 3rd in the playoff ranking the day they crushed ISU on Championship game Saturday, and Baylor was also highly ranked. OSU was 5th or 6th and jumped TCU.
You are correct that Baylor had a weak SOS, but they had only lost one game, and so had TCU. The fix was in, for all to see.

And OSU demolished 13th ranked Wisconsin 59-0. All three teams lost one game. So you have to pick one.

Do I think TCU had the best resume? Yes. The way their one loss went down should've been taken into account and they should've had the edge.

But this is basically everybody's example that they use to claim the CFP is going to do all these outlandish things, and that ISU has no chance unless they go undefeated, and even then people think ISU's going to get jumped by a 2 loss SEC team.

People need to take off the tinfoil hats. The same teams get in because they are pretty much always the best teams and have the best resumes. If the worst we have is a 13-1 team getting selected over a 12-1 team when they had very similar SOS, then I'd say the CFP is not doing so bad.

 

[alarson]

Still think you make it 8. 5 p5 teams that win their conference championship, 2 at large, and 1 non power5 guarantee.

Yep. This is so simple so of course the same idiots that have been refusing expansion will do something dumb like 12.

In addition, i'd say a conference can get at most one at large bid. If you're not the champion and you're not even 2nd best, you have no business in the playoff.

 

[alarson]

Auto bids would be a terrible decision. There have been too many years where the Pac12 simply isn't deserving.

A lot of times we assume that because of media narratives, but there really isnt enough cross-conference competition to truly know it. Settle it on the field at the playoff.

 

[acoustimac]

If the UNI's of the world can handle an extended playoff series then DI can do it as well. The 12 team makes so much more sense that 4. Give the top four seeds byes. After that anything could happen.

 

[acoustimac]

Lol. I would like you to put a 12 team no bye bracket together for me.

Round Robin!

 

[RustShack]

At minimum it should be 6 teams, max 12. I’d like 8 personally but the higher the number the better chance of Iowa State making it.

If Iowa State has its dream season this year, and makes the 4 team playoff. It will be changed to have more teams in it the very next season lol.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

They can have their own party (tourney), just like NAIA, Div 3, Div 2, and the like. And, if the P5 teams split away, no lawsuit. Plus, they still have access, getting in if they have one or more of the 7 wildcards.

If the P5 split, there's going to be a lawsuit. If they don't grant auto access, there's going to be a lawsuit. It's MUCH cheaper to just throw them a bone to stay quiet.

In a perfect world the G5 and the top of the FCS (Missouri Valley, CAA, Big Sky, New WAC) and form the 'New I-AA' and have a 32 team playoff with a 72 scholarship limit but the G5 have mortgaged their entire athletic departments for Tuesday night games on ESPNU so it's never going to happen.

 

[Cyclonefan710]

Round Robin!

lol round robin is not a bracket

 

[BMWallace]

If the P5 split, there's going to be a lawsuit. If they don't grant auto access, there's going to be a lawsuit. It's MUCH cheaper to just throw them a bone to stay quiet.

In a perfect world the G5 and the top of the FCS (Missouri Valley, CAA, Big Sky, New WAC) and form the 'New I-AA' and have a 32 team playoff with a 72 scholarship limit but the G5 have mortgaged their entire athletic departments for Tuesday night games on ESPNU so it's never going to happen.

Also, if the P5 splits away from the NCAA, I can guarantee that there will be lawsuits about player compensation the next day. Hard to cling to the amateurism thing without the NCAA to cover everyones' collective asses.

Also, I have heard some grumblings about such a split where the bottom 30 or 40 of FCS split off with the top 40 ish of the FCS and make that middle level of D1 NCAA football. If that does happen, and FBS goes down to 100 or so teams, that could change a little of the playoff discussion.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I want the same as FCS (24). Throw out the conference championships, and throw out the 12th games if you must.

 

[MartyFine]

 

[Leidang]

I'm for an 8 team playoff. I would say all power 5 champions and the top 3 g5 champions. If you want a shot then win your conference.

 

[MeanDean]

So 3 SEC teams, 2 B1G, Clemson and OU, Then Notre Dame and the PAC12 champs in alternate years. Got it.