So You're Saying There's A Chance - fivethirtyeight.com Projections

Kinch

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Sep 19, 2021
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We ARE guaranteed a CCG spot in that scenario. Baylor would be eliminated due to having the worst scoring differential in games among the tied teams. Then Iowa State would have the tiebreaker over Oklahoma State due to winning head to head.

Pretty sure if we win out, we’re in no matter what.
Thank you Lord for OSU's 10 point win.
 

cyIclSoneU

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Apr 7, 2016
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If we win out, we would give Oklahoma a loss, and Oklahoma also still plays both Baylor and Oklahoma State. Every other team already has two losses.

If Oklahoma beats both of them, then there would only be two 8-1 teams. We are in vs. OU.

If Oklahoma beats one of them and loses to the other, then once again, only two 8-1 teams (us and whoever beat OU, since both OU and the team they beat would have two losses). We are in vs. the other winner over OU.

If Oklahoma loses to both of them, that's the only scenario in which three teams can go 8-1, and we already did the math on that. Baylor would get eliminated on points differential. We are in vs. OSU.

So there is no scenario we are out if we win out. We control our CCG destiny.
 

ISU4Life

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Dec 15, 2008
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If we win out, we would give Oklahoma a loss, and Oklahoma also still plays both Baylor and Oklahoma State. Every other team already has two losses.

If Oklahoma beats both of them, then there would only be two 8-1 teams. We are in vs. OU.

If Oklahoma beats one of them and loses to the other, then once again, only two 8-1 teams (us and whoever beat OU, since both OU and the team they beat would have two losses). We are in vs. the other winner over OU.

If Oklahoma loses to both of them, that's the only scenario in which three teams can go 8-1, and we already did the math on that. Baylor would get eliminated on points differential. We are in vs. OSU.

So there is no scenario we are out if we win out. We control our CCG destiny.
1635298768221.gif
 

mred

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Oct 19, 2006
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If we are 8-1 in conference beating both OSU and OU how would we be left out considering the loss is to Baylor also 8-1?
The 3 way tie at 8-1 that we aren't guaranteed a CCG spot would be OSU, ISU & Baylor.
First tiebreaker is round robin record within the tied teams. All three would be 1-1.

Next tiebreaker is scoring margin in those games. OSU beat Baylor by 10. Baylor beat ISU by 2. ISU beat OSU by 3. That means OSU is +7, ISU is +1, Baylor is -8. The way the tiebreaker is written, you remove the worst team in scoring margin and rerun the tiebreaker for the remaining teams. That means Baylor is last, and then ISU beats OSU via head to head result.

EDIT: I could have saved myself some typing by checking if this had already been answered, since others beat me to it. :)
 

TedKumsher

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Aug 30, 2007
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Nate Silver has The Cyclones at a 17% chance to win the B12, 6% chance of making the playoffs, and 1% chance at National Championship. If we win-out it moves those numbers to 99%, 74%, and 14% respectively. (interestingly, only OU is projected ahead of us. Fun toggles to see how win/loss/win-out effect his statistics)

Did I read that right? 74% chance to make the playoffs, with 2 losses (winning out), even though a 2 loss team has never made the playoffs before? (For reference there are 17 teams with 0 (10 teams) or 1 (7 teams) loss that seem to be in the conversation.) Further, if you click that ISU loses to WV, then it still gives ISU a 1% chance to make the playoffs.

ISU the only current 2 loss team with even a 1% chance to win national champ.

The only other current 2 loss teams to have a >1% chance to make the playoffs are Texas A&M (7%) and Auburn (2%).

Side note -- OkState is currently (as of 10/26) listed higher than ISU in percentage chance at making the playoffs and winning the national champ. They are below ISU in percentage chance at winning the Big12.

Side note 2 -- it really does have fun click-y toggles. You can not only see the percentages change for the team you clicked, but you can also see how it changes all the other teams.
 

cyfan92

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Sep 20, 2011
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I remember this type of conversation all spring, summer, and early fall. Let's slow down.
Exactly... It's like some want to be hurt.. again


Here is a fun tool for those that have never used the MRED simulator


Let's just take this one week at a time. Cheer for Texas and ISU this weekend
 

Cyinthenorth

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Mar 29, 2013
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All due respect, but no way on earth, heaven, or hell, does the playoff selection committee let in a Big 12 team with 2 losses, conference champion or not. It is OU or bust for the Big 12's playoff hopes. ISU can hope to get into the Sugar Bowl again (or other NY6 bowl). I think that would be the ceiling in a scenario where we win out, or win out aside from losing to an undefeated and playoff-bound OU in the Big XII championship
 
  • Agree
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cyfan92

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Sep 20, 2011
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Here is my dream scenario if OU can't get to the CFP and get the conference more money

1635362584864.png

1635362601189.png

Rematch against Gundy. Loose and we make the Sugar bowl as OSU likely gets into the playoff according to 538 (OSU win out). Win and we play in the sugar bowl.
 

Cyclonscin

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Dec 4, 2020
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Here is my dream scenario if OU can't get to the CFP and get the conference more money

View attachment 91272

View attachment 91273

Rematch against Gundy. Loose and we make the Sugar bowl as OSU likely gets into the playoff according to 538 (OSU win out). Win and we play in the sugar bowl.
How does your "dream scenario" not have Texas losing to Kansas again?
 
  • Haha
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RonBurgundy

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All due respect, but no way on earth, heaven, or hell, does the playoff selection committee let in a Big 12 team with 2 losses, conference champion or not. It is OU or bust for the Big 12's playoff hopes. ISU can hope to get into the Sugar Bowl again (or other NY6 bowl). I think that would be the ceiling in a scenario where we win out, or win out aside from losing to an undefeated and playoff-bound OU in the Big XII championship
I agree. There are many websites that show us with a decent shot at CFP if we win out, but we all know those 13 members of the CFP would never let a 2 loss Big 12 team in if there are any other Power 5 one loss alternatives.

Sugar Bowl or bust!
 

LivntheCyLife

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Nov 25, 2006
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I agree. There are many websites that show us with a decent shot at CFP if we win out, but we all know those 13 members of the CFP would never let a 2 loss Big 12 team in if there are any other Power 5 one loss alternatives.

Sugar Bowl or bust!
The question is will there be any one loss Power 5 alternatives. Assume the Big 10 and SEC champs are in. Then there's 1 or 2 spots depending on Cincinnati. If Iowa State runs the table there will be no 1 loss Big 12 teams unless Baylor wins out and loses the tiebreaker. Then the candidates are Pitt, Wake Forest, Oregon, and the 2nd place Big 10 and SEC teams. The only undefeated teams are Wake Forest, Michigan, Michigan St, and Georgia. There's a lot of games left to play for all of them. This year is a lot different with Ohio St and Alabama already having 1 loss and Clemson having 3.

Still maybe less than 50% that there's not another P5 1-loss team but I think there's at least a 25% a 2 loss team makes the CFP this year.