According to MGM, the outcome likelihood, from most likely to least likely:
Lakers in 5
Lakers in 6
Lakers in 4
Lakers in 7
Heat in 7
Heat in 6
Heat in 5
Heat in 4
Lakers 5 and 6 do seem most likely to me. Denver series didn't at all suggest a Lakers sweep given they were a desperation 3 from 2-2. Lakers sweep is the one that is out of place. Drop that down below Heat in 7.
Davis is going to have to work a lot harder on offense against Miami. I honestly don't feel LeBron even needed his top gear against Denver so I expect him to actually have an equal or better series now that he has to play 100% with Butler in his grill.