Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

snowcraig2.0

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Every MWC game and vs each other is CW.

Fox is Big 12 and Big Ten matchup.

It sucks. They are living our exact doomsday scenario from many years ago. This is basically what Larry Scott tried to do to ISU/KSU/Baylor (maybe KU) unless the Big Ten and/or SEC miraculously saved them.

I will say I think there are certain indicators that if it had to be someone these schools (and Cal and Stanford) really are more relegation worthy than any original Big 12 schools. I posted yesterday they both only averaged around 3500 attendence for basketball, hard to believe. Having travelled the west coast a lot the past few years Oregon State isn't really that out of the way but Washington State was easily the most geographically isolated major conference team and probably up there with Hawaii for all of FBS.
They are in much worse shape than we would have been. We had the Big East as a landing spot, which at the time was much better than the current MWC.
 
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HFCS

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They are in much worse shape than we would have been. We had the Big East as a landing spot, which at the time was much better than the current MWC.

Total hypothetical but I wonder if we had gone along with KU/KSU how it would have looked in terms of premier basketball conference but bottom of power conferences fb conference. Doubt Baylor would have been involved in Big East talks.

2011 missile crisis:
With football: Uconn, Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, WVU, Cincy, Louisville, USF, ISU, KU, KSU (11 teams)
Hoops only: Villanova, Georgetown, Providence, St Johns, Seton Hall, Notre Dame (17 teams)

*Rutgers got Big Ten invite a year later so would have been 10/16 if you change only that
*in 2013 Notre Dame moved non FB to ACC, maybe or likely they still would have
*Creighton, Marquette, DePaul and Xavier were added in 2013. Are they still if there's a football component?
*Syracuse and Pitt to ACC in 2013 and Louisville in 2014. Probably still happens, it would have been an upward fb move. Are any Big 12 vagabonds part of that move?


IIRC 2011 was the massive one where a total collapse Pac 12 style was possible. It was possible again a year later with A&M/Missouri but I think already by then it was more that Texas/OU and others were looking east more than west and there was no conference ready to take a huge block of Big 12 teams like 2011.
 

2speedy1

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Ya, his article says somewhere between 5-9 mill per school, I imagine they are also getting a kickback from MW and WCC for other sports. So 10-15 mill per school, at best???
That would be a big payday for the MW and WCC to pay if you are thinking 5 mil from them.

I believe the MWC is the highest paid G5 and they make around 4M total per school, so I doubt they are giving OSU and Wazzu more than what they give their full members, for a few games and non rev sports.

 

Clonedogg

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That would be a big payday for the MW and WCC to pay if you are thinking 5 mil from them.

I believe the MWC is the highest paid G5 and they make around 4M total per school, so I doubt they are giving OSU and Wazzu more than what they give their full members, for a few games and non rev sports.

k, at best
 

simply1

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Another side note, Oregon State gymnastics looking to compete in the Big 12
 

simply1

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And his shine to the deal

Retired Fox Sports Network President Bob Thompson told me last week: “I don’t know what the financials are, but I don’t think it matters. Exposure is paramount at this point because in order for them to remain relevant should another shoe drop and begin (realignment) anew, it’s very important for them to be top of mind.”
 

Cyclonsin

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Every MWC game and vs each other is CW.

Fox is Big 12 and Big Ten matchup.

It sucks. They are living our exact doomsday scenario from many years ago. This is basically what Larry Scott tried to do to ISU/KSU/Baylor (maybe KU) unless the Big Ten and/or SEC miraculously saved them.

I will say I think there are certain indicators that if it had to be someone these schools (and Cal and Stanford) really are more relegation worthy than any original Big 12 schools. I posted yesterday they both only averaged around 3500 attendence for basketball, hard to believe. Having travelled the west coast a lot the past few years Oregon State isn't really that out of the way but Washington State was easily the most geographically isolated major conference team and probably up there with Hawaii for all of FBS.
Do you know if this number dipped significantly from 22-23 to 23-24? It seemed that once the writing was on the wall for them last summer/fall a ton of apathy crept into their fan base and they basically stopped following.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a huge decrease in attendance if we were in the same boat. It would be harder to spend hard-earned time/money on a dead program walking.
 

Nolaeer

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Josh Pate on a Heartland sports podcast predicted ISU to win the big 12 this year. Back OT.



FSU and clemson may end up in big 12 at least until the tv contracts are redone in 2031. not sure how great that would be.

I maintain the 4 best picks (realistic) are NC State, VT, Pitt, and Louisville. Some could argue Miami over Louisville, but no. Big 12 doesn't need a small private college that's been irrelevant for 20 years.
 

ClubCy

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Josh Pate on a Heartland sports podcast predicted ISU to win the big 12 this year. Back OT.



FSU and clemson may end up in big 12 at least until the tv contracts are redone in 2031. not sure how great that would be.

I maintain the 4 best picks (realistic) are NC State, VT, Pitt, and Louisville. Some could argue Miami over Louisville, but no. Big 12 doesn't need a small private college that's been irrelevant for 20 years.
I don’t see a world where FSU and Clemson would go to the Big 12.
 
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PickSix

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I don’t see a world where FSU and Clemson would go to the Big 12.
I've been thinking a lot about how the ACC dominoes would fall lately... I think I agree.

While I don't think it's out of the question for the SEC to stand pat at 16 if the B1G gets North Carolina +1. But in that case, I don't think the Big 12 media rights share would be that much higher than a reconstructed ACC with FSU/Clemson at the center. Especially if they bully the rest of the conference into unequal revenue sharing.

I still think the best play is go straight to Louisville/Pitt/Va Tech +1 and begin preying on their insecurities. Those schools don't have any leverage and would probably value the stability/security that the Big 12 could offer.

Of course we'd probably have to wait until the TV deal is up as I can't imagine the current schools could afford another haircut...

Just some of my random thoughts from the past day.
 
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1UNI2ISU

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Both leagues are going to want Virginia and North Carolina. Those two might be in the best place that anybody has ever been in through realignment.
 
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isucy86

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I've been thinking a lot about how the ACC dominoes would fall lately... I think I agree.

While I don't think it's out of the question for the SEC to stand pat at 16 if the B1G gets North Carolina +1. But in that case, I don't think the Big 12 media rights share would be that much higher than a reconstructed ACC with FSU/Clemson at the center. Especially if they bully the rest of the conference into unequal revenue sharing.

I still think the best play is to straight to Louisville/Pitt/Va Tech +1 and begin preying on their insecurities. Those schools don't have any leverage and would probably value the stability/security that the Big 12 could offer.

Of course we'd probably have to wait until the TV deal is up as I can't imagine the current schools could afford another haircut...

Just some of my random thoughts from the past day.
I would think if ACC elites leave for Big10 or ACC, the ESPN deal with ACC would be voided by ESPN. But at same time they would have a vested interest in building up the Big12 with the best remaining ACC teams. So no need for current Big12 teams to take a haircut.

This new joint sports platform is interesting. I thought I had read each of the 3 partners would evenly split subscription revenue. But I assume individual game viewership will be tracked to enable a network to charge more for higher views from advertisers.
 

cykadelic2

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I would think if ACC elites leave for Big10 or ACC, the ESPN deal with ACC would be voided by ESPN. But at same time they would have a vested interest in building up the Big12 with the best remaining ACC teams. So no need for current Big12 teams to take a haircut.

This new joint sports platform is interesting. I thought I had read each of the 3 partners would evenly split subscription revenue. But I assume individual game viewership will be tracked to enable a network to charge more for higher views from advertisers.
ESPN has an 2027 option to walk away from the ACC contract and essentially terminate the ACC GOR. They need to notify the ACC of their intentions by JAN 2025 and I expect them to do so and destroy the ACC. ESPN can then manipulate schools to the SEC or B12 as they see fit. Fox will also obviously be involved as well and move schools to the B10 if ESPN isn't able to get top ACC schools to the SEC.

Regarding the B12, there is no way any existing B12 schools should take a payout haircut as a result of incoming schools from the ACC.

I highly doubt ESPN/Fox/WBD will split revenues equally, especially if/when WBD loses the NBA to NBC.
 

cykadelic2

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I still think the best play is to straight to Louisville/Pitt/Va Tech +1 and begin preying on their insecurities. Those schools don't have any leverage and would probably value the stability/security that the Big 12 could offer.

Of course we'd probably have to wait until the TV deal is up as I can't imagine the current schools could afford another haircut...
Agree with you on existing B12 schools not taking any more payout cuts due to adding ACC schools.

Regarding Pitt and their sea of yellow unoccupied seats at Heinz Field for their home games, will never understand why the B12 should voluntarily add them. They are like Houston who should have never been added by the B12 but at least Houston has their own stadium but are still like 4th fiddle (at best) to the Texans, A&M and UT in their own city.
 
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I've been thinking a lot about how the ACC dominoes would fall lately... I think I agree.

While I don't think it's out of the question for the SEC to stand pat at 16 if the B1G gets North Carolina +1. But in that case, I don't think the Big 12 media rights share would be that much higher than a reconstructed ACC with FSU/Clemson at the center. Especially if they bully the rest of the conference into unequal revenue sharing.

I still think the best play is to straight to Louisville/Pitt/Va Tech +1 and begin preying on their insecurities. Those schools don't have any leverage and would probably value the stability/security that the Big 12 could offer.

Of course we'd probably have to wait until the TV deal is up as I can't imagine the current schools could afford another haircut...

Just some of my random thoughts from the past day.
The other thing to think about is presumably the teams that leave are going to have to cut a big check to the ACC on their way out the door. So temporarily the ACC will be flush with cash. I have no idea if that will prevent the remaining teams from leaving but maybe it will be something that keeps the league together and incentivizes them to rebuild by extending invites to schools like Tulane.
 
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PickSix

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Agree with you on existing B12 schools not taking any more payout cuts due to adding ACC schools.

Regarding Pitt and their sea of yellow unoccupied seats at Heinz Field for their home games, will never understand why the B12 should voluntarily add them. They are like Houston who should have never been added by the B12 but at least Houston has their own stadium but are still like 4th fiddle (at best) to the Texans, A&M and UT in their own city.
I've always been a big Pitt advocate.

Seems to me the landscape is evolving to prioritizing big time million viewer matchups over quantity of matchups or media market size. Pitt/WV would annually be one of those types of games.

But Pitt would be more than worthwhile on their own institutional merits. Keep in mind, it's ultimately University Presidents that make these decisions. Pitt is a top 100 public University, an AAU institution, and has an endowment more than twice the size of any other new Big 12 program. Having them a part of the club would raise the Big 12 profile.

They've shown flashes of success in football and basketball, are in a solid media market and recruiting area. Pro towns can be tough, but I think they have all the necessary pieces to be competitive with the right leadership. And if they start rolling, there's enormous potential there.
 
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