Pavano throws his 5th CG of the year

[FDWxMan]

First off, where are you getting 5.75 runs per game in support? The guy has pitched in 19 games this year and has gotten a total of 71 runs, good for 3.74 runs per game in support. Nowhere close to the 5.75 you are suggesting he's getting. Second, if you notice below, Liriano tends to get his "run support" in several games when he doesn't necessarily need it, such as 4/15 against Boston, 4/21 against Cleveland, 5/2 against Cleveland, and 7-21 against Cleveland. Third, as bolded below, the guy has had only 4 bad games all year - games where he has given up 4 or more earned runs.

4/09 CHW W 4-3 F/11 (ND) (3 ER)
4/15 BOS W 8-0 (W) (0 ER)
4/21 CLE W 6-0 (W) (0 ER)
4/27 DET W 2-0 (W) (0 ER)
5/02 CLE W 8-3 (W) (3 ER)
5/08 BAL L 3-7 (L) (5 ER)
5/15 NYY L 1-7 (L) (3 ER)
5/20 BOS L 2-6 (L) (5 ER)
5/26 NYY L 2-3 (ND) (2 ER)
5/31 SEA W 5-4 (W) (3 ER)
6/05 OAK W 4-3 (ND) (1 ER)
6/11 ATL W 2-1 (W) (1 ER)
6/17 COL L 1-5 (L) (3 ER)
6/23 MIL L 3-5 (L) (3 ER)
6/28 DET L 5-7 (L) (6 ER)
7/03 TB L 6-8 (ND) (1 ER)
7/09 DET L 3-7 (L) (7 ER)
7/21 CLE W 6-0 (W) (0 ER)
Francisco Liriano Game Log | twinsbaseball.com: Stats

Bottom line - Liriano has a 3.54 ERA for this season and he's getting 3.74 runs per game in support, and he has pitched only 4 games this season where the onus is on him. Is it any wonder the guy has an 8-7 record? His offense isn't getting the job done for him.



Yes - Liriano is pitching "lights out" according to the stats above. He just isn't getting help where and when needed from his offense.

Right on. The run support thrown out initially was disgustingly wrong.

Here is a link to a blog breaking all of it down and why you should expect Liriano to have a much better record over the second half, mainly because of the terrible run support (10th worst in AL) and his "unlucky-ness" with an abnormally high BABIP.

Bank on a better second-half for Liriano | StarTribune.com

I thought that unless you were one of the old-guard newspaper writers that get to vote for the Cy Young that it was established years ago that W-L record is about the worst possible way to measure pitching performance?

 

[jtd9046]

First off, where are you getting 5.75 runs per game in support? The guy has pitched in 19 games this year and has gotten a total of 71 runs, good for 3.74 runs per game in support. Nowhere close to the 5.75 you are suggesting he's getting.

A fairly reliable source, ESPN. Heard of it?

2010 MLB Baseball Pitching Statistics and League Leaders - Major League Baseball - ESPN

 

[jdoggivjc]

Right on. The run support thrown out initially was disgustingly wrong.

Here is a link to a blog breaking all of it down and why you should expect Liriano to have a much better record over the second half, mainly because of the terrible run support (10th worst in AL) and his "unlucky-ness" with an abnormally high BABIP.

Bank on a better second-half for Liriano | StarTribune.com

I thought that unless you were one of the old-guard newspaper writers that get to vote for the Cy Young that it was established years ago that W-L record is about the worst possible way to measure pitching performance?

When 14 of your 19 starts are "quality starts", I'd say you're more than doing your job. And the only reason why it's not 15 of 19 is because he only went 5 innings in the 6/23 game against Milwaukee, although he only gave up 3 runs.

 

[jtd9046]

Yes - Liriano is pitching "lights out" according to the stats above. He just isn't getting help where and when needed from his offense.

He's pitching lights out when he's given up 6 or more runs in 2 of his last 4 starts???

 

[jtd9046]

When 14 of your 19 starts are "quality starts", I'd say you're more than doing your job. And the only reason why it's not 15 of 19 is because he only went 5 innings in the 6/23 game against Milwaukee, although he only gave up 3 runs.

I digress. My only point was, if anyone bothered to pay attention, was that Liriano right now is not an ace worthy pitcher. He's had a very good year and the potential to get better as the season goes on.

You simply just don't give up 6 and 7 runs to Detroit in big games, or 3 in the first when you're amped up against Jiminez, and so on. That's not an ace.

 

[GeronimusClone]

I digress. My only point was, if anyone bothered to pay attention, was that Liriano right now is not an ace worthy pitcher. He's had a very good year and the potential to get better as the season goes on.

You simply just don't give up 6 and 7 runs to Detroit in big games, or 3 in the first when you're amped up against Jiminez, and so on. That's not an ace.

An "ace" isn't above let downs.

 

[FDWxMan]

A fairly reliable source, ESPN. Heard of it?

2010 MLB Baseball Pitching Statistics and League Leaders - Major League Baseball - ESPN

Not to rain on your parade, but sorry, that isn't actually run support. It's actually "run support average" were the runs are averaged out to a per 9 innings pitched deal, much like ERA. The problem with that, is you are dealing with imaginary runs there, that weren't really scored for him.

(ex, Liriano pitches six innings, Twins score two runs, your link is going to claim his run support as 3 runs.....2 runs/ 6 inning * 9innings. Clearly, 3 runs were NOT scored for Liriano)

Liriano Game Log

Add up the actual runs the Twins have scored in his 19 starts so far. With his last start his actual run support just ticked over 4 runs per game.

 

[jtd9046]

An "ace" isn't above let downs.

An "ace" shouldn't have his let downs in the majority of big games.

 

[jdoggivjc]

A fairly reliable source, ESPN. Heard of it?

2010 MLB Baseball Pitching Statistics and League Leaders - Major League Baseball - ESPN

1. Funny how you only throw out the number 5.72, but then fail to mention that he ranks #72 in MLB in "Run Support Average".

2. ESPN's definition of "Run Support Average" is flawed. Their definition is

Run support. Team's runs scored (average, per 9 innings pitched) while the pitcher of record

MLB Statistics Glossary - MLB - ESPN

Whereas, the SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) site states:

This is calculated by examining the game logs at Retrosheet and finding how many runs were scored in each pitcher’s starts; dividing by his total starts, the batter park factor listed at baseball-reference.com, the league average, and multiplying by 100. Like ERA+, it is centered on 100, and a pitcher with an RSI over 100 had above average run support.

Run Support Average would be runs scored divided by total starts - batter park factor, league average, and X100 index it to center around 100 like they do with ERA+.

You want to know why ESPN's stat is flawed? Because it only takes into account runs scored while a pitcher is in the game. Where it becomes flawed is they do not count runs scored against the team after the pitcher has left the game, runs that often can significantly determine whether a pitcher wins or gets a no-decision on the game.

 

[jdoggivjc]

An "ace" shouldn't have his let downs in the majority of big games.

4/09 CHW W 4-3 F/11 (ND) (3 ER)
4/15 BOS W 8-0 (W) (0 ER)
4/21 CLE W 6-0 (W) (0 ER)
4/27 DET W 2-0 (W) (0 ER)
5/02 CLE W 8-3 (W) (3 ER)
5/08 BAL L 3-7 (L) (5 ER)
5/15 NYY L 1-7 (L) (3 ER)
5/20 BOS L 2-6 (L) (5 ER)
5/26 NYY L 2-3 (ND) (2 ER)
5/31 SEA W 5-4 (W) (3 ER)
6/05 OAK W 4-3 (ND) (1 ER)
6/11 ATL W 2-1 (W) (1 ER)
6/17 COL L 1-5 (L) (3 ER)
6/23 MIL L 3-5 (L) (3 ER)
6/28 DET L 5-7 (L) (6 ER)
7/03 TB L 6-8 (ND) (1 ER)
7/09 DET L 3-7 (L) (7 ER)
7/21 CLE W 6-0 (W) (0 ER)

He has had what - all of 4 letdowns all year?

Where is all your hate coming from? :wacko:

 

[ISU_phoria]

On teams 20 games below .500. Much different story. You'd still take them without thinking over Liriano as a #1 right now.

Do you Twins fans really actually think this team has an 'ace' right now and that Liriano is it?

Absolutely not! I've been to three games this year with Liriano starting and I can tell everybody first hand, he is not an ace! I love Liriano and he definitely has the talent to become an ace, but mentally, he's just not there yet! He's a good pitcher with great potential, but if we were playing a playoff game tomorrow and both Liriano and Pavano were available to start, I'd pick Pavano. (& I'm pretty sure Gardenhire would too).

I don't think a team necissarily needs to have an "ace" on the rotation, if they had 5 very serviceable starting pitchers. The Twins' problem is that they only have 2 good starters right now and the othe 3 are completely unreliable, though I do still have hope for Slowey.

 

[jtd9046]

Where is all your hate coming from? :wacko:

Show my hate. I've said SEVERAL times in this thread that Liriano has had a strong year. He's just not an ace.

Throw out all the stats you want, and you don't have to dumb anything down with definitions. I know baseball. The point still stands.