I posted this on the other thread on this same topic, in response to my belief that if this happens it would be merger of the 2 conferences instead. With 2 divisions of 8-10 teams, most likely 8 or 9 each. With my ideas of who might be left out or go somewhere else and why.
Well I'm not going to say I know exactly how it works out, but I did say 8 or so, could be 9 or even 10 from one or the other or each.
The number of schools in each division only really dictates the number of games available after round robin for cross division and non-con games.
Basically I could easily see if a merger happening here are a few teams from each conference that might look or be invited elsewhere:
Big 12
Iowa State - I could see an invite to the B1G, while not probable, this could be a possibility if they see the conferences starting to firm up and need to grab a team that fits their By-laws before its too late. Iowa State has OK athletics and is a great academic school with AAU membership which is a B1G requirement. Some people think the ACC will look at Iowa State too if something happens this is a long shot, and I think Iowa State will stay in the Big 12, but could go as a package with one of the below.
Kansas - could end up to the B1G, decent at least in BBall, Are AAU members.
WVU - would probably end up in the ACC, maybe the SEC if this happens.
Baylor - I could easily see them being left out because of all their problems.
TCU - Maybe be left out just because of being the last to the party, and being the small private school.
Pac 12
This is a bit tougher to see which ones could be left out beyond a couple:
Colorado - Again an AAU school with decent athletics and a new market for the B1G, could be a package deal with another school like ISU or KS, other schools in the Pac 12 are probably too far from the B1G footprint requirement.
Utah - last to the party, may be left out.
WSU, AZ, ASU, OSU - these would be the hardest ones but 1 or 2 of these could be left out depending on how everything else plays out, simply because what they bring to the table. These all are fairly low on the money list for endowment and overall performance.
Again, I have no Idea how it might work out in the end but some form of merger may happen, or not, or the Big 12 could add a couple from the Pac, or not. Who knows, At this point the Big 12 is way more stable things may just stay the same for the next round, but speculating is what we do right.
My honest opinion, if something like this happens:
Leaving or left out of the Big 12:
WVU and/or Baylor and/or TCU = 7-8 left (all 3 if dropping to 16 teams)
Leaving or left out of the Pac 12:
Utah and/or Colorado, = 10 or 11 left. (both plus one of the others if dropping to 16 teams)
With a total of 18 (or 16) teams, 2 divisions of 9 teams (or 2 of 8).
8 game round robin(or 7), 1 or 2 Xdivisional games.
2-3 non-con Games.