So if they win their last 5 and end up 14-4 they won't make it? Lol, that's ridiculous and I even hate Nebraska as much as anybody else.
It's highly likely they finish 14-4 or 13-5, four out of their last 5 are at home where rhey are already 13-1.
*** Official Bubble Watch thread '18 ***
- Thread starter cyclones500
- Start date
So if they win their last 5 and end up 14-4 they won't make it? Lol, that's ridiculous and I even hate Nebraska as much as anybody else.
It's highly likely they finish 14-4 or 13-5, four out of their last 5 are at home where rhey are already 13-1.
Specific to Pac-12 bubble teams: Utah beat UCLA to stay at least in bubble picture. Resume getting more similar to UCLA, which I'd say is just inside the ring, for now. Washington did itself no favors, getting shellacked at Stanford. Also in Pac-12 late action, ASU may lose at UO. Doesn't help the seeding.
Revisiting this discussion. The answer is going to be "yes." It becomes official in 8 days.
After loss to BYU, Saint Mary's has entered Bubble Zone, and cannot do anything to improve its position.
Im most interested in how many big12 teams can get in to the dance, 9 have a decent chance but its more likely to be 7. Last I looked Baylor and Texas had the worst numbers behind them but things could change quick in Kansas City.
That's a good balance to my assessment, which came off with an alarmist tone.
I agree SMC is fairly secure at this point. So much muddle in the 10-11-12-bubble territory with multiple teams. Worst-case it could be problematic, Saint Mary's would've been safer with an additional shot at Gonzaga. (The loss to BYU itself was not damaging in larger context).
Doc Sadler just took out Mid Tennessee..Mid Tenn added to the bubble.
True, RPI is good, but I've seen teams like this year's MTSU get left out of the field .... most notorious example was Missouri State in '06 -- I think their RPI was something like 23(?)
I always say, I want to best 36 at-large consistently applied across the board, whether it's mid-major, smallish or major league. But as a fan, it's more fun to have mids and lower in the 11/12/13 seed range than middling Power-5's.
Their RPI will get hit a bit, S. Miss RPI is in the 200's. This probably ends any chance for Marquette and Nebraska.
A few quickie observations, in my analysis.
Alabama advanced, so still in the running for at-large (probably "in for now"). Mississippi State still alive, long-shot I'm guessing, but has control of its path.
UT and BU ought to be in, but now at mercy of the bubble.
Oklahoma State is out.
Notre Dame's fleeting hopes are likely toast.
Providence all but secured a bid w/ win over Creighton.
Syracuse is in its typical "shouldn't be in, but maybe could be, but maybe not" position.
USC and UCLA live to play another day. As of this post, Utah in a must-win game vs. Oregon to stay in the conversation.
Boise State is NIT-bound, with loss to USU. BSU probably needed to win the automatic bid, but at minimum had to make the final and face Nevada to have an at-large shot.
Alabama advanced, so still in the running for at-large (probably "in for now"). Mississippi State still alive, long-shot I'm guessing, but has control of its path.
UT and BU ought to be in, but now at mercy of the bubble.
Oklahoma State is out.
Notre Dame's fleeting hopes are likely toast.
Providence all but secured a bid w/ win over Creighton.
Syracuse is in its typical "shouldn't be in, but maybe could be, but maybe not" position.
USC and UCLA live to play another day. As of this post, Utah in a must-win game vs. Oregon to stay in the conversation.
Boise State is NIT-bound, with loss to USU. BSU probably needed to win the automatic bid, but at minimum had to make the final and face Nevada to have an at-large shot.
Didn't even think about how bad S-Miss profile is (mainly that MTSU couldn't keep playing to at least keeping treading water). That was Middle Tennessee's first sub-100 RPI loss of the season. Will committee value its best win (at Murray State) more than the outlier loss?
MT does have a non-conference SOS of 7, and is 12-1 in true road games. How much feather-in-cap those are, who knows.
Agree w/ you on Marquette & Nebraska (I think Marquette had more "there" there than NU, but now it's academic for both).
Syracuse, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Osu, none could get out of the quarterfinals of their tourney.
Should setup for some bubble drama on Sunday. Really the only team that improved their chances yesterday was Alabama, I think they should be safe now, they have some huge wins.
Should setup for some bubble drama on Sunday. Really the only team that improved their chances yesterday was Alabama, I think they should be safe now, they have some huge wins.
I’d rather have less big 12 teams in and have them do some damage then have more teams in and have just get trounced right away
A Bubble Watch team-comparison. Using RPI sorting as a guide; I don’t have a quadrant system comparison at my immediate disposal. (RPI numbers here may lag a day behind).
Which team would you place higher on the S-curve? (It’s possible both or neither are actually selected):
Team A
Overall record: 19-14
RPI: 87
SOS: 56
SOS non-con: 287
Home: 13-5
Away: 3-7
Neutral: 3-2
vs. top 25: 3-5
vs. top 50: 7-10
vs. top 100: 9-14
vs. 101-200: 3-0
vs. 201 and below: 7-0
Highest RPI win(s): 6 (twice, home/road)
Lowest RPI loss(es): 64 (twice)
Team B
Overall record: 20-13
RPI: 43
SOS: 13
SOS non-con: 18
Home: 14-5
Away: 4-6
Neutral: 2-2
vs. top 25: 1-7
vs. top 50: 4-7
vs. top 100: 8-11
vs. 101-200: 8-2
vs. 201 and below: 4-0
Highest RPI win(s): 11 (home)
Lowest RPI loss(es): 157 and 158 (both road)
Which team would you place higher on the S-curve? (It’s possible both or neither are actually selected):
Team A
Overall record: 19-14
RPI: 87
SOS: 56
SOS non-con: 287
Home: 13-5
Away: 3-7
Neutral: 3-2
vs. top 25: 3-5
vs. top 50: 7-10
vs. top 100: 9-14
vs. 101-200: 3-0
vs. 201 and below: 7-0
Highest RPI win(s): 6 (twice, home/road)
Lowest RPI loss(es): 64 (twice)
Team B
Overall record: 20-13
RPI: 43
SOS: 13
SOS non-con: 18
Home: 14-5
Away: 4-6
Neutral: 2-2
vs. top 25: 1-7
vs. top 50: 4-7
vs. top 100: 8-11
vs. 101-200: 8-2
vs. 201 and below: 4-0
Highest RPI win(s): 11 (home)
Lowest RPI loss(es): 157 and 158 (both road)
If I had a dollar for every time I heard or read “the bubble is weak this year”, I’d have a lot of dollars
Something to chew on here but KU would be better off losing to K-State tonight. Right now the 1 seeds are KU, VA, Xavier, and Nova. That pretty much guarantees Xavier getting the 1 seed in the Midwest region, which would push KU out to LA. That doesn't seem ideal. If they fell to the 2 line they would end up in Omaha which would be a big difference maker IMO.
Who's been saying the bubble is weak? The bubble is the strongest it's been in quite sometime. When you look at who the braketologists had in the field prior to this week there really wasn't a lot of opportunities for teams to move in and out of the field as at large bids compared to the last several years.
