I think that you aren't accounting for what I think is a jump in Iowa State talent/performance and a drop in NDSU talent/performance.I have to agree with you, a talent gap does seem to exist. In fact earlier in the thread I ran the Game Analyzer Mechanism based on last yrs statistics.
I took down NDSUs stats -14% and increased the ISU stats by +6%. This of course encompasses strength of schedule, as explained in the original post, but that is a derivative of talent viewed as performance over time, I guess?
The GAM is showing a close game, 25.9-22.4 in favor of The BISON.
From here we can adjust inputs, based on observations, to make a very good prediction on this years games.
I think it will be a decent game but it will be a comfortable win for Iowa State.