NCAA's - The Case for 9 Big 12 teams

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BryceC

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First off, I know it's not going to happen.

I think we can all agree the top 8 are in. Lunardi has them pretty comfortably in, only Texas is in the last 4 in, and they have a top 50 RPI with 5 group 1 wins and 3 group 2 wins. I think they are pretty safe actually.

That brings us to OSU.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/team-sheet?team=Oklahoma-State

They have a horrible RPI of 89. However, they have the same record vs. group 1 as Texas and a better record against group 2. The only difference between UT's and OSU's resume is UT played way more group 3 teams, and OSU played just a terrible noncon.

If they ignore the RPI # and just look at the good wins, they have as good of a record as a lot of teams that will be on the bubble.
 

DeereClone

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Okie state needs to beat Oklahoma, and Texas needs to beat us. From there it depends how auto bids and other bubble teams do in their tourneys.
 

chuckd4735

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I think of OSU loses to OU, they are out, and if Texas loses to us, they're out. 7 seems like the minimum, 8 the maximum, but it will have to fall right to get 8 (OU would need some help to get in with a loss to OSU).

I thought Baylor was on the bubble as well. Id have to imagine if they beat WVU, they are in, but a loss, and Texas and OSU winning 1 or two games could make life hard for them.
 

RonBurgundy

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I think of OSU loses to OU, they are out, and if Texas loses to us, they're out. 7 seems like the minimum, 8 the maximum, but it will have to fall right to get 8 (OU would need some help to get in with a loss to OSU).

I have always liked BracketMatrix since it is not just Lunardi, but compilation of 102 bracket projections. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Not sure why, but they still have both OU and UT solidly in the tourney, probably even if they both lose tonight. Bubble team is Baylor. They make team #8 now, but once they lose to WVU tomorrow night, I expect them out and we are back to #7.

I think OSU wins tonight and they might replace Baylor as the eighth team. Another win v KU tomorrow would virtually guarantee it. No way Big 12 gets nine teams. Eight is still a very strong statement regarding quality of conference. Ironically, as strong as the conference is, I would not be surprised to see no Big 12 team in FF.
 

VeloClone

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I thought Baylor was on the bubble as well. Id have to imagine if they beat WVU, they are in, but a loss, and Texas and OSU winning 1 or two games could make life hard for them.
If the selection committee is to be believed (and I think they can be on this point), they don't give a rip about number of teams from a conference. So beyond the competition for a final spot they wouldn't be competing with those Big 12 teams anymore than they would be competing with every other bubble team. So those Big 12 teams would definitely all have to be on the bubble for this to matter.

Besides, it would be fun to see some of these analysts' heads explode when the Big 12 got 90% of their membership in.
 
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clone52

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Quadrant 1 wins > everything else is what I think will be proven Sunday night.

I hope that is true. I had to look this up.

Quadrant one wins are those home games vs. teams RPI ranked 1-30, neutral games vs. 1-50, and away games vs. 1–75.

A Quadrant 2 win are those at Home against the RPI 31–75, neutral 51–100, and away victories over the RPI 76–135.

If I were king, I'd look at those 2 areas as well as non-Quadrant 1 or 2 losses. So home loss againts a team below 75, a neutral loss against a team below 100 and a road loss against a team below 135. Technically, none of the possible bubble teams (OU, OSU, Baylor, Kansas State or Texas) have a bad loss. ISU is currently 121, so a loss at Hilton was not a bad loss.

Now, if you rank those teams on that criteria, the order would be like this (Q1 wins, Q2 wins, bad loss).
Oklahoma (6,3,0)
OSU (5,4,0)
Texas (5,2,0)
Baylor (4,3,0)
Kansas State (3,3,0)

Really, Kansas State should be the bubbliest.

Now lets look at other bubble teams. First, these are Lunardi's first 4 out and next 4 out.
Syracuse (3,3,2)
Louisville (3,3,2)
Marquette(3,4,2)
Notre Dame(2,4,3)
Penn State(3,2,3)
Boise(1,2,2)
Nebraska(1,1,1)

I don't think any of them are more deserving that Kansas State.

Now lets look at the last 4 in and first 4 byes.
Saint Mary's (1,2,2)
Providence (3,4,3)
USC (4,4,1)
UCLA (3,5,2)
Alabama (4,6,1)

I'd say Kansas State deserves it over Saint Mary's and Providence and is above even with UCLA.

Whats really BS is Oklahoma State. Just looking at those numbers, OSU is clearly ahead of USC. Everyone would pick USC over OSU. OSU is 87 RPI. USC is 35 RPI. Its pretty obvious USC is better. Well guess what, USC played 6 games against 150-225 and 3 games against 226 and above. OSU played 3 games between 150-225 and 5 games above 225. The only possible reason to pick USC over OSU is that they played toughher scrub teams. Thats totally ********. Not to mention that USC lost to the 221 team AT HOME. USC's best wins are neutral wins against Middle Tennessee (27) and New Mexico State (44). OSU has wins @6, @31, neutral 43, home 6, home 4. Sagarin has USC as 44 and Oklahoma State as 46. Ken Pom has USC as 47 and OSU as 57.
 

Cy$

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Sep 1, 2011
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OSU isn’t getting in unless they get very far in the big 12 tourney. Crappy noncon schedule and high RPI will leave them out. I have 8 unless Texas loses tonight, then maybe 7.
 
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TheJackWePack5

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OSU isn’t getting in unless they get very far in the big 12 tourney. Crappy noncon schedule and high RPI will leave them out. I have 8 unless Texas loses tonight, then maybe 7.
OSU's non-con definitely wasn't strong. Not the weakest non-con in the Big 12 though (KSU).

If OSU beats OU I wouldn't be surprised if they snuck in. OU may be in trouble, but I doubt the committee leaves Trae Young....errr OU out of the dance.
 
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isu81

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I hope that is true. I had to look this up.

Quadrant one wins are those home games vs. teams RPI ranked 1-30, neutral games vs. 1-50, and away games vs. 1–75.

A Quadrant 2 win are those at Home against the RPI 31–75, neutral 51–100, and away victories over the RPI 76–135.

If I were king, I'd look at those 2 areas as well as non-Quadrant 1 or 2 losses. So home loss againts a team below 75, a neutral loss against a team below 100 and a road loss against a team below 135. Technically, none of the possible bubble teams (OU, OSU, Baylor, Kansas State or Texas) have a bad loss. ISU is currently 121, so a loss at Hilton was not a bad loss.

Now, if you rank those teams on that criteria, the order would be like this (Q1 wins, Q2 wins, bad loss).
Oklahoma (6,3,0)
OSU (5,4,0)
Texas (5,2,0)
Baylor (4,3,0)
Kansas State (3,3,0)

Really, Kansas State should be the bubbliest.

Now lets look at other bubble teams. First, these are Lunardi's first 4 out and next 4 out.
Syracuse (3,3,2)
Louisville (3,3,2)
Marquette(3,4,2)
Notre Dame(2,4,3)
Penn State(3,2,3)
Boise(1,2,2)
Nebraska(1,1,1)

I don't think any of them are more deserving that Kansas State.

Now lets look at the last 4 in and first 4 byes.
Saint Mary's (1,2,2)
Providence (3,4,3)
USC (4,4,1)
UCLA (3,5,2)
Alabama (4,6,1)

I'd say Kansas State deserves it over Saint Mary's and Providence and is above even with UCLA.

Whats really BS is Oklahoma State. Just looking at those numbers, OSU is clearly ahead of USC. Everyone would pick USC over OSU. OSU is 87 RPI. USC is 35 RPI. Its pretty obvious USC is better. Well guess what, USC played 6 games against 150-225 and 3 games against 226 and above. OSU played 3 games between 150-225 and 5 games above 225. The only possible reason to pick USC over OSU is that they played toughher scrub teams. Thats totally ********. Not to mention that USC lost to the 221 team AT HOME. USC's best wins are neutral wins against Middle Tennessee (27) and New Mexico State (44). OSU has wins @6, @31, neutral 43, home 6, home 4. Sagarin has USC as 44 and Oklahoma State as 46. Ken Pom has USC as 47 and OSU as 57.

If we lose tonight, pretty good chance that both Baylor and Oklahoma add a bad loss.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi