NBA/NBPA moving toward lowering draft age to 18

[simply1]

Looks like the end of the one and done days.

Five takeaways from the proposed lowering of the NBA Draft age and how it could impact college basketball

There will be big implications as the NBA eventually moves to change the age of draft eligibility

www.cbssports.com

 

[Clonehomer]

Good. Next step is to enact a MLB type system where you can declare out of high school, but then need to wait 2-3 years if you don't.

 

[isutrevman]

Looks like it wont be in effect until after Biliew comes here.....excellent......

 

[Halincandenza]

Duke's entire recruiting strategy is out the window.

 

[Jer]

The only likely impact to us would be that the top 10 recruits each year elect for the draft and then the next 10 shift up to the blue bloods and that ripple keeps going down the chain. Not going to be noticeable for us that aren’t getting top 10 recruiting classes, I wouldn’t think.

 

[Mr Janny]

Good. Next step is to enact a MLB type system where you can declare out of high school, but then need to wait 2-3 years if you don't.

Why would the NBA want to do that, though? What's the benefit of a rule like that for the NBA?

If a player decides to go to college, and as a freshman, blows up and looks like they'd be taken number 1 overall in the draft, what benefit is it to the NBA to have a rule stating that they have to stay in college longer?

 

[Cy Hard]

The only likely impact to us would be that the top 10 recruits each year elect for the draft and then the next 10 shift up to the blue bloods and that ripple keeps going down the chain. Not going to be noticeable for us that aren’t getting top 10 recruiting classes, I wouldn’t think.

But don't we have a top 10 recruiting class right now?

 

[isucy86]

It will be interesting if the NBA doesn't create a G-League path for HS and maybe even college draftees. Change the paradigm from NBA team being 1st stop to G-League being default 1st stop.

Players then "earn" spot on NBA team. Obviously, a handful of HS/college draftees would be NBA ready day 1.

That might be less costly for NBA if 18 year olds get big bonus, but smaller salary if they play G-League.

 

[Pat]

Good. Next step is to enact a MLB type system where you can declare out of high school, but then need to wait 2-3 years if you don't.

It will be interesting if the NBA doesn't create a G-League path for HS and maybe even college draftees. Change the paradigm from NBA team being 1st stop to G-League being default 1st stop.

Players then "earn" spot on NBA team. Obviously, a handful of HS/college draftees would be NBA ready day 1.

That might be less costly for NBA if 18 year olds get big bonus, but smaller salary if they play G-League.

Players Union would kill both of these before the owners finished proposing them. They have been against 1-and-done for the same reason: it delays their peers getting money.

The fascinating thing to watch will be if teams are any smarter than they were pre-2005 when teams were FOMO-ing themselves into some terrible choices and some young men were very much unprepared for the “too much too soon” salaries.

 

[Jer]

Players Union would kill both of these before the owners finished proposing them. They have been against 1-and-done for the same reason: it delays their peers getting money.

The fascinating thing to watch will be if teams are any smarter than they were pre-2005 when teams were FOMO-ing themselves into some terrible choices and some young men were very much unprepared for the “too much too soon” salaries.

I don't think that changes much. The younger the player, the more unknown the risk. If you look at past drafts, players taken based on "potential growth" flame out much more often than those taken based on demonstrated ability. High risk, high reward really can't be changed in this scenario.

 

[isucy86]

Players Union would kill both of these before the owners finished proposing them. They have been against 1-and-done for the same reason: it delays their peers getting money.

The fascinating thing to watch will be if teams are any smarter than they were pre-2005 when teams were FOMO-ing themselves into some terrible choices and some young men were very much unprepared for the “too much too soon” salaries.

From everything I have read, the Players Union were a proponent of one & done when implemented because it meant more money for established players already in NBA vs. draft picks getting crazy salaries and only small % ever being All-Star level players during careers. Still happens today with one & dones.

That's why I will be curious if NBA doesn't go with signing bonus plus base salary if guys play G-League. Then NBA minimum salary based on draft slot for length of first contract.

 

[pulse]

The circle of life.

 

[Pat]

From everything I have read, the Players Union were a proponent of one & done when implemented because it meant more money for established players already in NBA vs. draft picks getting crazy salaries and only small % ever being All-Star level players during careers. Still happens today with one & dones.

That's why I will be curious if NBA doesn't go with signing bonus plus base salary if guys play G-League. Then NBA minimum salary based on draft slot for length of first contract.

The rookie salary scale was implemented in the mid-90’s, so having high school players go to the draft didn’t affect the money available to the rest of the league.

 

[clone4life82]

Feel like this is a move the NBA is making to push back on NIL and the affect that may have at getting and keeping talent in the NCAA.

 

[GoldCy]

The only likely impact to us would be that the top 10 recruits each year elect for the draft and then the next 10 shift up to the blue bloods and that ripple keeps going down the chain. Not going to be noticeable for us that aren’t getting top 10 recruiting classes, I wouldn’t think.

Gee, I thought we had top 10 this year.

 

[VeloClone]

The only likely impact to us would be that the top 10 recruits each year elect for the draft and then the next 10 shift up to the blue bloods and that ripple keeps going down the chain. Not going to be noticeable for us that aren’t getting top 10 recruiting classes, I wouldn’t think.

Actually the skill level of the top 10 or so is rare. As you go down the list the gap between one guy and the next is smaller and smaller. So shaving off the top few may actually help marginally with parity since in theory there will be fewer truly game changing freshmen in the NCAA and the ones there are will be closer in talent level to the guys just behind them than the Towns, Davis, Okafor, Williamson type guys were to the guys behind them.