Merged Covid Megathread

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simply1

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Huh?

How do you define “considering a local lockdown”. Describes the article pretty accurately.
Yeah, the phrasing is in the article even.
"It's more of a lockdown situation - but a local lockdown," said Johan Nojd, who leads the infectious diseases department in Uppsala.
 

madguy30

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Not sure if you read that article (fake news) or not, but the headline doesn’t match what was in the article. Let’s substitute local lockdowns with....something in between regulations and recommendations. Yahoo, I’m sure, got the clicks that they wanted by putting “local lockdowns” in the title.
Not sure if you read the article or not but the following is direct parts from it.

Headline reads 'Considers Local Lockdowns', direct quote from person from infectious disease department person talks about local lockdowns.

I guess the article tied in with the headline?

And the article isn't 'Yahoo News', it's from The Telegraph out of the UK.

"It also empowers them, in consultation with the agency, to instruct people to avoid public transport or to avoid visiting the elderly and others in risk groups.

"It's more of a lockdown situation - but a local lockdown," said Johan Nojd, who leads the infectious diseases department in Uppsala."

Norway in March closed down restaurants, cafés, bars, and hairdressers, with those that defied the order fined for non-compliance.

That would not be the case under Sweden's new approach, although if a city issued a strong recommendation not to visit restaurants or hairdressers, many might close.
 
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flycy

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Google told me as of 2016 Europe had a population of 741.4 million.
The 24 countries that report in the EUROMOMO data I believe have a total population of 350 million which is comparable to the US. This time it looks like Germany is experiencing higher rates than they did in the spring. Lock downs delay, but don't stop the virus. I wonder if they will have higher death rates since they were the one large western country with a light initial case load. Presumably they would have a higher percentage of the population still vulnerable to the virus.

I've also heard a disease expert call this a case-demic at this point rather than a pandemic as deaths are not occurring at near the rate they once were. He credited this to hyper-testing, better treatment, and the healthy being exposed to the virus this time rather than the vulnerable.

In the US the excess death rate lately has been below zero. In other words, a below average number of Americans are dying as compared to a normal October.
 

Acylum

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Clonefan94

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The 24 countries that report in the EUROMOMO data I believe have a total population of 350 million which is comparable to the US. This time it looks like Germany is experiencing higher rates than they did in the spring. Lock downs delay, but don't stop the virus. I wonder if they will have higher death rates since they were the one large western country with a light initial case load. Presumably they would have a higher percentage of the population still vulnerable to the virus.

I've also heard a disease expert call this a case-demic at this point rather than a pandemic as deaths are not occurring at near the rate they once were. He credited this to hyper-testing, better treatment, and the healthy being exposed to the virus this time rather than the vulnerable.

In the US the excess death rate lately has been below zero. In other words, a below average number of Americans are dying as compared to a normal October.

Serious question about the bolded, because I've been wondering about this lately. Does this factor in the somewhat lockdown we are still in and people not doing the normal things they would and people not commuting as much as normal?
 

Acylum

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Serious question about the bolded, because I've been wondering about this lately. Does this factor in the somewhat lockdown we are still in and people not doing the normal things they would and people not commuting as much as normal?
No, it’s strictly based on number of deaths. It’s interesting to note that there was a pretty sharp increase in the growth rate for the number of U.S. from 2013 to 2016 before falling again 2017 to 2019. The growth rate for 2020 is projected to be the same as 2019.
 
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madguy30

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I saw something else about this or similar the other day but of course no idea where.

Trying to keep the hope train going over some of the immunity studies, stop gaps, etc. but too much 'may' or 'could' out there so I just watch nature videos on Youtube. :)
 

Jeremy

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I saw something else about this or similar the other day but of course no idea where.

Trying to keep the hope train going over some of the immunity studies, stop gaps, etc. but too much 'may' or 'could' out there so I just watch nature videos on Youtube. :)
In the end, the Lion always gets its prey. The circle of life.
 

Cyclonepride

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madguy30

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While everyone wants that to be "lockdown", it's not lockdown when you say this: "the power to strongly recommend". That's entirely different than what we are doing here.
Aside from what other countries are doing or what we're doing here in the U.S., do you think the public is very good about taking strong recommendations here?
 

madguy30

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Before people freak out or post it as we've been a hotspot, there will likely be a huge amount of cases reported via WI this week due to the DHS being closed/not reporting this weekend.

Daily cases/hospitalizations/deaths reported have been all-time highs lately, but the numbers reported might be double the next few days.
 
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Cyclonepride

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Aside from what other countries are doing or what we're doing here in the U.S., do you think the public is very good about taking strong recommendations here?
In general, probably not quite. Definitely not doing great with the large protests/gatherings. I'm still of the opinion that the virus is going to spread regardless of mitigation measures (as they always have), and any draconian lockdown merely prolongs the duration of the event.
 

madguy30

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In general, probably not quite. Definitely not doing great with the large protests/gatherings. I'm still of the opinion that the virus is going to spread regardless of mitigation measures (as they always have), and any draconian lockdown merely prolongs the duration of the event.
Well WI for started pushing capacity lately or are on target to do so with mitigation efforts so are we OK with just letting it go full blown?

Schools have been open all over the state, but then closed down soon after cases popped up.

Will the people that willingly put themselves in position to contract Covid willingly not go to the hospital? It's only fair.

Bigger protests were in summer and college campuses reuniting is 6 weeks past so the blame has somewhere else to go. For example, the full bars and restaurants near were where I camped last weekend were definitely neither of those things.
 

Cyclonepride

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Well WI for started pushing capacity lately or are on target to do so with mitigation efforts so are we OK with just letting it go full blown?

Schools have been open all over the state, but then closed down soon after cases popped up.

Will the people that willingly put themselves in position to contract Covid willingly not go to the hospital? It's only fair.

Bigger protests were in summer and college campuses reuniting is 6 weeks past so the blame has somewhere else to go. For example, the full bars and restaurants near were where I camped last weekend were definitely neither of those things.
Schools (as scientists said before the year started) have not been a major spreader of the virus at all. Channel 13 just reported that Des Moines (no in-person) reported 29 cases of students and staff) and West Des Moines (in-person for the most part) reported 30 (may be reversed). At any rate, DM is a much bigger district, but the stats across the country show it was a false concern.

85-90% of the positives our PCR testing is picking up are not sick, and not contagious. We may as well throw positive numbers out the window, and focus on hospitalizations (deaths "with" are suspect for the same reason). Our hospitals have not been overrun yet, with the possible exception of New York City in the earliest days of the pandemic.