Currently, the Big 12 is stuck with three bad-to-risky options. 1) Stay at 10 forever, potentially upsetting Oklahoma and others and driving them to another conference once the GOR expires; 2) Expand by two or four teams with some of the stronger options from non-P5 conferences, diluting the Big 12 in terms of conference strength, potentially becoming the new Big East/AAC; 3) Hold at 10 for now, wait to see what the ACC does with their conference network and see if the Big 12 can potentially poach any teams if the ACC becomes unstable.
These aren't great options. Even the "strongest" move from a national perspective doesn't really solve any of the Big 12's underlying issues, it just adds a few more mediocre teams to the league. The two main drivers of conference realignment are money and prestige. Money, in terms of TV rights. Prestige, in terms of playoff access. There's five conferences fighting for four playoff spots.
The Big 12 is trying to solve their problems by patching over the larger issues. Adding Cinci and UConn isn't suddenly going to raise the Big 12's profile to SEC/Big Ten level. Both of those leagues have conference networks with major media networks promoting their agenda. The Big 12 and ACC don't have that kind of backing, and internal politics are making each conference unstable and ripe for poaching as we approach the endgame, which is four power conferences with guaranteed playoff spots.
If the Big 12 really wants to stop the constant realignment talk, they need to stop thinking small. The only way to win this game is to preemptively get to four power conferences by merging with the ACC. It's a 24 team super-conference, and yeah, it's insane and unwieldy. Each team may only play another team from another division twice a decade. It's not college football that we grew up on. But merging the two most unstable P5 conferences delivers the geographic reach and population for a conference network to get on the level of the SEC/Big Ten/Pac 12, and solves the playoff access issue.
And hell, who cares about poaching now? You've got 24 teams in a conference! I hope the Big ACC gets poached! Let Duke and Georgia Tech go to the Big Ten. Let Virginia Tech and UNC go to the SEC. Get this behemoth of a league down to a relatively manageable 16-18 members and go from there.