Is UNI a barometer?

[jdoggivjc]

I think it's only a barometer if we lose. If we win, well, we were supposed to win - not much to discern from that. If we lose we know right from the beginning it's going to be a long season.

Even if we win by a margin much closer than any of us would like there are a lot of things that could account for that besides barometric ones - we didn't open up the playbook in order not to give future opponents film, we took regulars out of the game early allowing UNI to play catch-up, hell, the team could just be shaking off first game rust. The problem is if the score is "tight" a few disillusioned fans would latch onto the score and throw away the season without even a sliver of analysis - take last season. The score through much of the game would suggest that UNI was still "in it", even though rational fans knew they weren't. UNI didn't move the ball all day. All we could really glean from that game was that the offense was really going to struggle if Tiller become the main man, which did come to fruition.

 

[CRcyclone6]

No injuries and a win. 1 point or 20, a win

 

[DRCHIRO]

Signed,

2009 Iowa football team

The question was not about Iowa, but Iowa State. If struggle to beat, or lose to UNI, it's probably going to be a long year.

 

[ISUENGR]

The UNI game is a barometer. If we barely win/lose, it will be a long season and victories will be few and far between. If we win big and our offense is fluid, we stand a puncher's chance of going bowling. If we win and our offense sputters like last year, I don't see us making it to a bowl game.

 

[UNIGuy4Cy]

The question was not about Iowa, but Iowa State. If struggle to beat, or lose to UNI, it's probably going to be a long year.

Ya but that's what people thought when Iowa struggled again UNI in 2009. They ended up winning the Orange Bowl that year. UNI is a damn good IAA school.

 

[tm3308]

Let's look at the last 13 years since the 15 year streak ended.

Iowa State's won seven and finished with a winning record three times during those seven seasons. In the six losing years Iowa State's finished with a winning record twice. That's a predictability of 54%. Only slightly better than a coin toss.

It's not always about the end result. You have to look at the context of each game. How good was Iowa in 2007? Not very, so barely beating them meant you likely didn't have a very good team either.

In 2004, it was a very competitive game between two good teams.

The context and how ISU performed in the game is more pertinent than the W/L.

 

[cycloneG]

It's not always about the end result. You have to look at the context of each game. How good was Iowa in 2007? Not very, so barely beating them meant you likely didn't have a very good team either.

In 2004, it was a very competitive game between two good teams.

The context and how ISU performed in the game is more pertinent than the W/L.

This is where we differ. The end result is what matters to me.

 

[CRcyclone6]

This is where we differ. The end result is what matters to me.

This is all that matters. Winning. Don't care if we look good or look bad, win. Ask Ohio State how they looked in their 2002 season. They looked like **** in lots of games. Offense was horrible. But they won all of their games and took down the U for the title.

 

[driegner]

[FONT=&quot]"Gene Chizik never beat UNI"

WOWZA. Just sayin'.
[/FONT]

 

[PaulSTI]

I like to read your statistical breakdowns. Usually offers fresh perspective on what are sometimes common assessments.

The "barometer" factor is one of those. As your analysis shows, results vs. UNI/I-AA isn't a cut-and-dried indicator of season expectations.

Too many variables, for sure — it would be different if I-AA game always came first; UNI is many times a playoff team (but not always) while other FCS teams are much worse; there is a rivalry factor for UNI; opponent's style of play can vary (a 17-7 win is similar to 42-17, if teams' strengths tilt defensive or offensive)...

Also, even if ISU dominates the game, the final winning margin could be misleading. There's little motivation to pile up a lot of points, and it can end up as a tune-up, a chance to distribute the playing time.

Plus, a team might play ugly but improve throughout the year — look at Iowa's close-call vs. UNI in '09 ... every other win that season was by a wider margin, vs. teams that would most likely have beaten UNI without much trouble.

Even with all those considerations, I still think the result of the FCS game provides a general sense of what to expect, at least if it's Game 1. My preseason litmus test (which I've never attempted to "prove" after the fact) applies whether it's UNI or other FCS, and postseason expectations for the opponent don't come into play — FCS games shouldn't be a major challenge, regardless, if an ISU team is any good; and if this game is a struggle, I can't see competing very well in the Big 12.

I follow basically the same principle, but here’s my expectation of ISU record this season, based on UNI result:
Win by 40-plus points: 8-4/7-5*
30-39: 7-5/6-6
20-29: 6-6/5-7
10-19: 5 wins maximum (4-8 more likely)
Fewer than 10 points: 4 wins max (3-9 more likely)
Loss: 3 max (2-10 more likely)

If anyone wants to check this after the season, we’ll see how much water it held.

*I’m not expecting to win 70-3. Obviously, if there were a 60-plus category, the ceiling for wins would be higher. I just doubt it will happen.

On your conclusion based on the margin of victory, I would contend that Paul Rhoads is a classy enough guy to take his foot off the gas if we go up by 40 points.

 

[3Cheers4LkyJack]

I hope to God this doesn't happen, but like you said below, I don't think it will either. Opening game of the year always worries me.

We are in no position to look past anyone and we haven't been in many years.

 

[cyclones500]

On your conclusion based on the margin of victory, I would contend that Paul Rhoads is a classy enough guy to take his foot off the gas if we go up by 40 points.

This is true. I hesitate to even use the 40-plus spread in part because of that, and the fact ISU hasn't beaten any team by that much since, what, 2002? (twice, Tennessee Tech & Kansas).

A 6-touchdown win would probably mean it was 31-0 after 20 minutes ... there would be no doubt about the result, every early, on-field and on the scoreboard.

 

[tm3308]

This is where we differ. The end result is what matters to me.

[/B]

This is all that matters. Winning. Don't care if we look good or look bad, win. Ask Ohio State how they looked in their 2002 season. They looked like **** in lots of games. Offense was horrible. But they won all of their games and took down the U for the title.

While it's true that Ohio State won ugly, they beat several quality teams along the way (not unlike Iowa in 2009).

But, consider this: how often has ISU looked bad/played badly against Iowa, and had a good season in the W/L column? On the flip side, how often have they had a bad season when they played well against Iowa?

 

[brokenloginagain]

this was a great post. as the OP "proved" with the data, a loss/close win against UNI doesn't bode well for the rest of the season. hope this year is an anomaly.