Iowa State squarely on the bubble in latest bracketology

[HFCS]

Yeah, it is ridiculous. Soon we'll be in a world of 16 and up.

The new Big 12 of twelve is going to be absolutely brutal for basketball, though.

Oklahoma and Texas are traditionally-strong programs. Oklahoma might take a step back after the Kruger retirement (and seems to have done so so far) and Texas has never quite lived up to its talent (as is typical with Texas, though we'll see how Beard does when he has some time to rework things).

So those are losses but... Houston has it rolling right now. Cincinnati and BYU have good tradition. The only tomato can being added is UCF, but I bet they step up their game in a better conference.

So instead of having to fight nine homicidal maniacs... you might have to fight 11.

And there's still only 6-7 spots to go around.

Good luck us.

I view OU as kind of similar to Missouri basketball before they switched and think their basketball will not benefit the same way Missouri has not. Texas is hard to predict, they've always had talent and it seems incredibly random when it translates to success or not.

Frankly I hope some of the new schools suck from the perspective of how easy college basketball wins seem to be everywhere but the Big 12.

Houston is coming in as a stronger program than either we are losing. Cincy and BYU could easily have seasons typical to a decent OU or Texas year. If we add Arizona I really hope whatever other Pac school comes with them sucks. My neighbor is dialed in w Arizona and they'd be B12 today if it were up to their fans/alumni/boosters.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I view OU as kind of similar to Missouri basketball before they switched and think their basketball will not benefit the same way Missouri has not. Texas is hard to predict, they've always had talent and it seems incredibly random when it translates to success or not.

Frankly I hope some of the new schools suck from the perspective of how easy college basketball wins seem to be everywhere but the Big 12.

Houston is coming in as a stronger program than either we are losing. Cincy and BYU could easily have seasons typical to a decent OU or Texas year. If we add Arizona I really hope whatever other Pac school comes with them sucks. My neighbor is dialed in w Arizona and they'd be B12 today if it were up to their fans/alumni/boosters.

Yeah, Houston is immediately one of the best programs in the conference. That might somewhat depend on Sampson (and he's 66), but that program has plenty of raw talent in its backyard and good tradition. Their ceiling is winning the Big 12 and I bet their floor is "a decent OU or Texas year."

Cincinnati and BYU would probably be picked between #9 and #10 (sorry KSU, probably going to be a rough year for the Wildcats) if they were playing in the Big 12 next season. I don't see why they can't consistently be in the middle of the conference fighting for the NCAA tournament if a few games/possessions go their way in conference play, though. UCF is probably the only guaranteed punching bag in the short term.

Arizona would instantly be on the same tier as Baylor, Kansas, and Houston. The top of the conference would be absolutely brutal with those four around. Nobody else available from the rest of the P12 feels like they would be very threatening save Oregon, but even Arizona State could be dangerous. The second- and third-best programs in the P12 were Southern Cal and UCLA, and the Big Ten nabbed them.

So yeah, no relief in sight from this realignment stuff.

Its going to be a bigger conference but just as tough almost no matter what scenario you want to play out.

 

[VeloClone]

I wonder what is the highest share of a conference to make the tournament.

I bet the Big Ten or ACC has had more teams than seven before, but never a >70% "hit" rate. Having an extra 4-5 (a lot of which suck you can rack up wins against) has to help. You are completely right there were no nights off in the Big 12 last year. Anybody could (and often did) beat anybody else.

The Big 12 has had 7/10 (70%) with some regularity the past decade (though never eight) --

View attachment 101541

Seems the key really is eking out the #6 or #7 seed in the conference. And the difference between those and #8 or #9 really is just a few possessions in a few key games (see WVU at home last year).

What would really make the difference would be if a team absolutely dominated in the out of conference, slumped due to key injuries at the start of conference season and then went on a tear at the end of the conference season to finish in that 8th spot and making a run to the championship game in the conference tourney. They very well could end up squeaking in the tournament and 1-7 making it as well.

 

[cyclones500]

I wonder what is the highest share of a conference to make the tournament.

I bet the Big Ten or ACC has had more teams than seven before, but never a >70% "hit" rate.

We might need @HoopsTournament to confirm this … I think Big 12 is only league with 70% of teams getting a bid in single tournament.


“Old” Big East came close, 11 of 16 (69%) in 2011. That still is record for # of teams (but not %)

ACC got 9 of 15 (60%) twice (2017 and 2018)

Big Ten has had 8 of 14 (57%) maybe a couple of times (?) … to my knowledge, didn’t get 7 when it was a 10- or 11-team league, but I could be wrong.

 

[EnkAMania]

Why pay attention to the #88 ranked bracketologist?

 

[CycloneErik]

Trash if Iowa's even listed on there with that roster...

3 posts into an ISU bracketology thread? Come on, man.

 

[NATEizKING]

I expect Kris Murray to be very good now that he'll be allowed to play the minutes his skill merits. Still he'll have less around him than his brother did last year.

Other than Keegan/Garza he's been their top advanced stats guy...basically he's been limited by the coach rather than actually making mistakes on the court.

26.1 PER last year is probably one of the highest you'll ever see for a bench player. It's way better than Iowa's non Murray/Garza starters of the past decade.

Where can I find PER

 

[qwerty]

Where can I find PER

You're wookin pa nub in all the wong places

 

[ISUTex]

That seems fair. Despite making the Sweet Sixteen, I would say Iowa State snuck into the tournament as one of the last four byes (or dangerously close to that) last season as a #11 seed.

I think this year's team projects pretty close to last year --

PG Hunter to Williams is a push (Hunter has a higher ceiling from here, though)
Take a step backwards with off-ball guards (AJG would have been nice to replace Brockington)
I don't think too much, though... I hope Holmes surprises, GK and CG are back, plus two talented freshmen
Wings should be better... Kunc + King + Watson is an upgrade on Kunc + Enaruna
Big men should be much better... Osun/Ward/Jones much better than Conditt/Jones

Worse backcourt, better frontcourt, still likely to be menacing on defense but find it hard to score.

Feels like a similar projection to last year -- just going to depend on how a few close games go. Not having Brockington around to pull rabbits out of his butt is going to be a problem, though.

Don't be shocked if we have a better backcourt. Holmes is a stud. Williams is solid. Gabe will be more steady and Grill is going be Grill. Looks pretty good IMO. Front court is going to be way better.

Iowa State is going to have a more talented team this season. What that turns into?

 

[HoopsTournament]

We might need @HoopsTournament to confirm this … I think Big 12 is only league with 70% of teams getting a bid in single tournament.


“Old” Big East came close, 11 of 16 (69%) in 2011. That still is record for # of teams (but not %)

ACC got 9 of 15 (60%) twice (2017 and 2018)

Big Ten has had 8 of 14 (57%) maybe a couple of times (?) … to my knowledge, didn’t get 7 when it was a 10- or 11-team league, but I could be wrong.

I don’t have data on how many teams were in each conference each year. It would take some time to confirm and unfortunately, I have a lot of other things going on right now.

 

[mj4cy]

3 posts into an ISU bracketology thread? Come on, man.

I'm saying why even report this garbage if that's their level of bball IQ

 

[Sigmapolis]

Don't be shocked if we have a better backcourt. Holmes is a stud. Williams is solid. Gabe will be more steady and Grill is going be Grill. Looks pretty good IMO. Front court is going to be way better.

Iowa State is going to have a more talented team this season. What that turns into?

I hope you're right. I just don't know if we have anybody who will be as individually talented and productive as was Brockington (again, AJG, but that train has sailed forever) or as good as Hunter was towards the end of the season when he really came on. The roster might be more talented in sum and deeper than last year, but basketball is so often how good your best 1-2 guys are, not your ~20 MPG bench guys.

I will say that TJ and the staff proved they could get way more than the sum of the parts out of the team last year. We had way more talented teams during the Hoiberg and early Prohm/Shayok year that did far less overall than last year in terms of W/L and games won in the NCAA tournament, though many of them had superior records against a slightly-worse Big 12. If TJ can take a ragtag menagerie of a roster like last year, one down three scholarship players before the first game (including one guy expected to play major minutes in Hinson and one "cornerstone" of the program going forward in Foster), and then manufacture a Sweet Sixteen out of it based simply on grind, hustle, and defensive acumen, then I think that says great things for the next season.

 

[Cydkar]

Why pay attention to the #88 ranked bracketologist?

Agree. I won't give him the click and don't GAF right now anyway. I wouldn't look at anyone's bracketology, frankly.

 

[Cydkar]

We lost a great defender in Hunter but gained an elite defender in the paint, because we have Gabe back on defense I will take that trade defensively as an improvement. On offense we all think Hunter would've improved but he was a horrible shooter most games, not even 40% fg on season.

Brockington is a legit gigantic question mark in terms of replacing what we lost. Huge number of games where he carried entire offense. For people who actually watched our offense, just losing Brockington alone is enough to warrant not projecting us as a tournament team.

If we would have gotten Green this team would have been a lock for the tournament. Our 'D' should be tremendous. Offense could be an adventure.

 

[HFCS]

If we would have gotten Green this team would have been a lock for the tournament. Our 'D' should be tremendous. Offense could be an adventure.

Yeah, we bring back and upgrade some good defense. That would've been the offensive replacement for Brockington. Now it'll be if we can develop and improve on offense in year 2. I think the recruiting is going to take care a little of that this year and a lot next year.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Yeah, we bring back and upgrade some good defense. That would've been the offensive replacement for Brockington. Now it'll be if we can develop and improve on offense in year 2. I think the recruiting is going to take care a little of that this year and a lot next year.

I think they probably get less out of the guards but more out of the big men on offense.

We'll see how that nets out, though.

 

[HFCS]

I think they probably get less out of the guards but more out of the big men on offense.

We'll see how that nets out, though.

I have to think Osun is going to be one of the stronger finishers around hoop we've had since maybe McKay? Not sure on his overall offensive game but those put back buckets would seem to be a little better, we've been brutal on that the past few years even going back through SP's time.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I have to think Osun is going to be one of the stronger finishers around hoop we've had since maybe McKay? Not sure on his overall offensive game but those put back buckets would seem to be a little better, we've been brutal on that the past few years even going back through SP's time.

He wouldn't need to do much more than catch a few lobs, run the court, and occasionally nab an offensive rebound for an easy put back to be an improvement over Conditt and Jones. He averaged 11.3 last year for the Bonnies, so if he can do something in the 8ish range, I think that's plenty for now.

I don't think we've had a big man with a good back-to-the-basket game since Niang. Solo had his moments down there and had an okay midrange game, but we've lacked firepower down there for a long time. I look forward to seeing what a guy like Biliew and Milan can do once they show up, though.

 

[HFCS]

He wouldn't need to do much more than catch a few lobs, run the court, and occasionally nab an offensive rebound for an easy put back to be an improvement over Conditt and Jones. He averaged 11.3 last year for the Bonnies, so if he can do something in the 8ish range, I think that's plenty for now.

I don't think we've had a big man with a good back-to-the-basket game since Niang. Solo had his moments down there and had an okay midrange game, but we've lacked firepower down there for a long time. I look forward to seeing what a guy like Biliew and Milan can do once they show up, though.

Maybe the best case is to have two players like Omaha and Milan with the total skill set between them. It's crazy to even think about those two. Would be great if Omaha is a 2 year player and Milan develops over full four years. If a player like Niang had above the rim ability like McKay they'd be one and done for sure and probably a top 5 recruit.

 

[CycloneRulzzz]

Trash if Iowa's even listed on there with that roster...

Iowa lost their best player and is in. Hilarious that Lunardi thinks the McCaffrey Brothers and the lesser Murray can take iowa back to the dance. Although they do have the weak *** conference schedule to lean on.