Major Conference Surety: Be in the Top 50
Major Conference schools with Top 50 RPIs have fared very well on Selection Sunday. All 22 schools that had an RPI between 31 and 40 were awarded At-Large bids. Only two Major Conference schools (Ole Miss in 2008 and Ohio State in 2008 who had RPIs of 48 and 49 respectively) have missed the Tournament with Top 50 RPIs. This means that 92% (23 of 25) Major Conference schools with an RPI between 41 and 50 have gone dancing - and all of them in the last four years have received bids.
Major Conference Gamblers: 51 to 60
There is a clear delineation between the 50th and 51st spot in the RPI for Major Conference schools. After the Top 50, only 51.8% (14 of 27) schools have received At-Large invitations. Most famously, Virginia Tech has been shut out twice (2008 and 2010) with an RPI of 52. In 2012, Mississippi (RPI 57) was the highest ranked Major Conference school not to receive a tournament bid. Having an RPI in the 50s is a gamble and brings other factors such as strength of schedule and strength of victories into question.
How did they get in?
For Major Conference schools with RPIs between 61 and 70, only 3 out of 24 possible teams (12.5%) have been awarded At-Large bids. In 2009, Arizona was one of the last teams in with an RPI of 62 and a 12-seed in the tournament. The Wildcats then proceeded to defeat 5th-seeded Utah and 13th-seeded Cleveland State en route to the Sweet 16. In 2010, Minnesota with an RPI of 63 was one of the last few teams into the Dance, receiving an 11-seed and falling to Xavier in the first round. Last season, West Virginia was awarded a 10-seed despite and RPI of 64 and subsequently got pounded by Gonzaga in a game that I attended at the CONSOL Energy Center in Pittsburgh. As I already mentioned, USC received a bid in 2011 with an RPI in the 70s, the only team with an RPI over 64 to receive an At-Large bid in the last 5 years.
Iowa State's RPI is top 50, so 92% chance as of today.
Iowa's RPI is 90, no at-large has ever gotten in with that high of an RPI.....
Major Conference schools with Top 50 RPIs have fared very well on Selection Sunday. All 22 schools that had an RPI between 31 and 40 were awarded At-Large bids. Only two Major Conference schools (Ole Miss in 2008 and Ohio State in 2008 who had RPIs of 48 and 49 respectively) have missed the Tournament with Top 50 RPIs. This means that 92% (23 of 25) Major Conference schools with an RPI between 41 and 50 have gone dancing - and all of them in the last four years have received bids.
Major Conference Gamblers: 51 to 60
There is a clear delineation between the 50th and 51st spot in the RPI for Major Conference schools. After the Top 50, only 51.8% (14 of 27) schools have received At-Large invitations. Most famously, Virginia Tech has been shut out twice (2008 and 2010) with an RPI of 52. In 2012, Mississippi (RPI 57) was the highest ranked Major Conference school not to receive a tournament bid. Having an RPI in the 50s is a gamble and brings other factors such as strength of schedule and strength of victories into question.
How did they get in?
For Major Conference schools with RPIs between 61 and 70, only 3 out of 24 possible teams (12.5%) have been awarded At-Large bids. In 2009, Arizona was one of the last teams in with an RPI of 62 and a 12-seed in the tournament. The Wildcats then proceeded to defeat 5th-seeded Utah and 13th-seeded Cleveland State en route to the Sweet 16. In 2010, Minnesota with an RPI of 63 was one of the last few teams into the Dance, receiving an 11-seed and falling to Xavier in the first round. Last season, West Virginia was awarded a 10-seed despite and RPI of 64 and subsequently got pounded by Gonzaga in a game that I attended at the CONSOL Energy Center in Pittsburgh. As I already mentioned, USC received a bid in 2011 with an RPI in the 70s, the only team with an RPI over 64 to receive an At-Large bid in the last 5 years.
Iowa State's RPI is top 50, so 92% chance as of today.
Iowa's RPI is 90, no at-large has ever gotten in with that high of an RPI.....