If Kansas leaves the Big 12 for the PAC, who do you take back?

[cyIclSoneU]

I would agree with this. If the Pac-12 falls apart I think Colorado and Utah would be high priority targets for the Big12. Although, If the Pac-12 falls I have a feeling the Big 10 will get first pick of any teams leaving.

The only realistic way the Pac-12 falls apart is if the B1G takes some of them anyway so I agree that would leave the leftovers with the Big 12 as their likely best option. But The Alliance seems to have headed off a B1G poaching of USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon etc.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Linear TV offers you one game per channel at a time. You have three windows that each can carry one game.

Streaming offers you unlimited games whenever you want. There is no rate limit. If you think a game has little appeal to people other than the two fanbases involved, you can double-book it with another similar game. If you think Iowa State and WVU fans watch games the most when they're at 1:00 PM, you can put ISU-Ohio and WVU-Western Kentucky both at 1:00 PM.

You can also stagger games March Madness style if you think that would keep the most eyeballs on your service. A streaming service could do kickoffs at 11:00, 1:00, 3:00, 5:00, and 7:00 for five games for example. A linear TV channel could not do that without using two separate channels.

Lots more creativity available for streaming services to maximize eyeballs in new ways.

But the liner tv model has this already? Ever watch premier league games where there are 8 going at the same time? The top tier game is on NBC, the next best go on USA, CNBC, etc and then the rest on peacock. Same way ESPN has games going on 4 different channels then ESPN plus.

 

[isucy86]

I’ve got to ask why do you think there is more flexibility with streaming then linear tv?

Independence won’t work for the pac teams for a number of issues but mainly the sports outside of football. Also travel for all those sports from Oregon/LA is going to be a huge problem.

Last thing to think about is affiliation, Washington and USC don’t want to be affiliated with the SEC. (Not sure about Oregon)

Independence is a tough route. Made tougher with BYU joining the Big12. But not impossible if it maximizes the $. If a Pac12 team were to go the independent route they would need to set up a scheduling agreement with the Big12, SEC or Big10. Similar to ND playing 5 ACC teams each season. The SEC would make the most sense because they only play 8 conference games today.

For Olympic Sports the Pac12 teams could ask to join the MWC, WCC, etc. No travel issues there. Does it really matter what conference schools are in for water polo, cross-country, rowing, soccer, gymnastics, golf, tennis, etc. etc. Sports like wrestling & hockey seem to do OK morphing together conferences for competition.

Its nice to say that USC, Washington, UCLA, etc don't want to be affiliated with the SEC, but $ talk. If it is the difference between $40M/year & $80/year annually in media rights fees- Pac12 teams will be like rats scrambling off a sinking ship to join the SEC. Heck the Big10 took Nebraska knowing they were getting the boot from the AAU. Nebraska was the best FB brand the Big10 could grab.

Plus it seems like FB & MBB are straying farther & farther from the scholar-athlete mission. There are legal challenges and Title IX issues- money is becoming more important to a modern Athletic Department.

 

[isucy86]

Linear TV offers you one game per channel at a time. You have three windows that each can carry one game.

Streaming offers you unlimited games whenever you want. There is no rate limit. If you think a game has little appeal to people other than the two fanbases involved, you can double-book it with another similar game. If you think Iowa State and WVU fans watch games the most when they're at 1:00 PM, you can put ISU-Ohio and WVU-Western Kentucky both at 1:00 PM.

You can also stagger games March Madness style if you think that would keep the most eyeballs on your service. A streaming service could do kickoffs at 11:00, 1:00, 3:00, 5:00, and 7:00 for five games for example. A linear TV channel could not do that without using two separate channels.

Lots more creativity available for streaming services to maximize eyeballs in new ways.

Exactly. Offer the viewer flexibility. Sure if ISU is on TV, I am watching the Cyclones. But otherwise, I am hunting for the best game or maybe want to watch a certain team. A lot of time I'll switch games at halftime. The kickoffs you mention would work great for a conference in time zone 2-3 hours different:

11am CT: Schedule teams in ET & CT
1/3/5/7 pm CT: Schedule teams in any time zone.

If a conference had teams in the MT or PT zones, it would be reasonable to have a 9pm CT slot for games. I also think we will see more big match ups on Friday nights with the next TV rights deal.

Heck the NBA Championship series started at 8pm CT. Those had to be early mornings for Boston fans!!

 

[Clonedogg]

The only realistic way the Pac-12 falls apart is if the B1G takes some of them anyway so I agree that would leave the leftovers with the Big 12 as their likely best option. But The Alliance seems to have headed off a B1G poaching of USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon etc.

SIAP, I heard that there was some looming HUGE news that would directly affect USC, said to be announced in six-ish months? I think Colin Cowherd alluded to it. We have no idea what it is, but conference affiliation or independence was something that many thought fit the HUGE category.

Edit: here is the only link I could find on a quick search.

Colin Cowherd Is Giddy Over Far Off USC Football Announcement - Trojan Daily Blog

Colin Cowherd this morning — “By the way, there are a lot of things happening with USC football, and you…

trojandailyblog.com

 

[isucy86]

But the liner tv model has this already? Ever watch premier league games where there are 8 going at the same time? The top tier game is on NBC, the next best go on USA, CNBC, etc and then the rest on peacock. Same way ESPN has games going on 4 different channels then ESPN plus.

How many games can be shown on ESPN (linear channel) a Saturday? 4 max (11,2,6 & 9) Whereas, if you jump over to ESPN+, they have 20-30 games on a Saturday. Also those 20-30 games aren't anchored to an 11, 2, 6 or 9 time slot.

Sure ESPN could create additional linear channels to show sports. They have done that with the SEC & ACC Networks. But then they have to convince the Cable, Satellite or Multi-Channel Streaming Services to pick up those linear channels. That didn't work for the Pac12 Network. Look at the Cub's Marquee Linear Network, they are basically with FUBO and a few cable companies.

There aren't many barriers for an Amazon, Apple Plus, HBO Max or Netflix to make their content available to consumers. Smart TV's, ROKU, Chromecast, etc. all make content easy to access for the consumer. Content provides can FLIP off the cable, satellite and linear streaming platforms and go direct to the consumer.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

How many games can be shown on ESPN (linear channel) a Saturday? 4 max (11,2,6 & 9) Whereas, if you jump over to ESPN+, they have 20-30 games on a Saturday. Also those 20-30 games aren't anchored to an 11, 2, 6 or 9 time slot.

Sure ESPN could create additional linear channels to show sports. They have done that with the SEC & ACC Networks. But then they have to convince the Cable, Satellite or Multi-Channel Streaming Services to pick up those linear channels. That didn't work for the Pac12 Network. Look at the Cub's Marquee Linear Network, they are basically with FUBO and a few cable companies.

There aren't many barriers for an Amazon, Apple Plus, HBO Max or Netflix to make their content available to consumers. Smart TV's, ROKU, Chromecast, etc. all make content easy to access for the consumer. Content provides can FLIP off the cable, satellite and linear streaming platforms and go direct to the consumer.

Yeah but every network already has their own streaming service that’s why this idea that linear tv is somehow different then a service like prime is kinda silly. They can already do what you are suggesting apple or Amazon do.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Independence is a tough route. Made tougher with BYU joining the Big12. But not impossible if it maximizes the $. If a Pac12 team were to go the independent route they would need to set up a scheduling agreement with the Big12, SEC or Big10. Similar to ND playing 5 ACC teams each season. The SEC would make the most sense because they only play 8 conference games today.

For Olympic Sports the Pac12 teams could ask to join the MWC, WCC, etc. No travel issues there. Does it really matter what conference schools are in for water polo, cross-country, rowing, soccer, gymnastics, golf, tennis, etc. etc. Sports like wrestling & hockey seem to do OK morphing together conferences for competition.

Its nice to say that USC, Washington, UCLA, etc don't want to be affiliated with the SEC, but $ talk. If it is the difference between $40M/year & $80/year annually in media rights fees- Pac12 teams will be like rats scrambling off a sinking ship to join the SEC. Heck the Big10 took Nebraska knowing they were getting the boot from the AAU. Nebraska was the best FB brand the Big10 could grab.

Plus it seems like FB & MBB are straying farther & farther from the scholar-athlete mission. There are legal challenges and Title IX issues- money is becoming more important to a modern Athletic Department.

For schools like USC and Washington their academic reputation means far more then the athletic programs. The athletics are just a drop in the bucket for these universities. I don’t know about Oregon but USC and Washington will never align with the SEC.

 

[isucy86]

Yeah but every network already has their own streaming service that’s why this idea that linear tv is somehow different then a service like prime is kinda silly. They can already do what you are suggesting apple or Amazon do.

The reason that every network has their own streaming service is because they see the future. It's just a matter of time before ESPN is a paid subscription service. ESPN+ is Disney dipping their toe in the water regarding live sport programming.

 

[isucy86]

For schools like USC and Washington their academic reputation means far more then the athletic programs. The athletics are just a drop in the bucket for these universities. I don’t know about Oregon but USC and Washington will never align with the SEC.

This isn't an either or. USC & Washington can maintain their strong academic traditions and still play Mississippi, Alabama or Georgia in football.

Using your logic- does playing Michigan State hurt Northwestern's academic reputation? Does Stanford playing Arizona State hurt Stanford? Of course not in both cases. Also, its not like USC or Washington would depart the Pac12 in isolation. I'd bet that 4-6 Pac12 teams would depart together.

Lastly, demographics in our country are changing. People moving from northern states to southern states. As more people move to SEC & Pac12 states- those universities will continue to bump up in national rankings.

 

[cykadelic2]

The reason that every network has their own streaming service is because they see the future. It's just a matter of time before ESPN is a paid subscription service. ESPN+ is Disney dipping their toe in the water regarding live sport programming.

This is true but relative to SEC/SECN/ESPN and B10/BTN/Fox for the next round of TV deals, their primary focus is, by far, on linear and monetizing SECN (not ESPN+) and BTN (Fox doesn't even have a viable streaming service), respectively. And that model reduces the probability of either conference expanding with Pac12 schools, including USC along with multiple other issues (B10 Rose Bowl relationship, scheduling challenges with other sports beyond football with schools being two time zones away, etc.).

That said, the P12 and B12 are both positioned to capitalize on the streaming market and monetize it through the competitive bidding process with multiple streamers engaged in existing content wars, including live sports. And the P12 and B12 R8 (minus WV) can max out the potential of that market by aggregating their inventory for bid and creating a contiguous geographic entity in the process and not some disparate geographic clusterduck like the projected B12, the SEC with USC or the B10 with USC.

 

[surly]

Monetize and linear seem to be cool words these days.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

But the liner tv model has this already? Ever watch premier league games where there are 8 going at the same time? The top tier game is on NBC, the next best go on USA, CNBC, etc and then the rest on peacock. Same way ESPN has games going on 4 different channels then ESPN plus.

Peacock isn’t linear TV. You just described a hybrid model. It’s taking advantage of streaming’s advantages in the way I laid out.

It seems like hybrid makes the most sense in 2022 but all streaming might be better in the near to medium future. And it will be the league’s job to figure out which is the right answer for whatever contract period it uses for media rights. The Big 12 in particular cannot really afford to get this decision wrong.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

SIAP, I heard that there was some looming HUGE news that would directly affect USC, said to be announced in six-ish months? I think Colin Cowherd alluded to it. We have no idea what it is, but conference affiliation or independence was something that many thought fit the HUGE category.

Edit: here is the only link I could find on a quick search.

I hadn’t seen that. Summer 2023 could be the time USC announces it’s going independent. That would be a massive shockwave. I don’t think it would be enough to kill the Pac-12 (short of the B1G swooping in for others), but it would raise really interesting questions like if Kansas or Texas Tech (or whoever) would accept a Pac-12 invite - or if Colorado and Arizona would come to the Big 12 instead.

 

[cykadelic2]

I hadn’t seen that. Summer 2023 could be the time USC announces it’s going independent. That would be a massive shockwave. I don’t think it would be enough to kill the Pac-12 (short of the B1G swooping in for others), but it would raise really interesting questions like if Kansas or Texas Tech (or whoever) would accept a Pac-12 invite - or if Colorado and Arizona would come to the Big 12 instead.

USC isn't going to make any conference affiliation intentions known or leaked until the P12 goes through the open bidding and negotiation process of their new TV deal.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Peacock isn’t linear TV. You just described a hybrid model. It’s taking advantage of streaming’s advantages in the way I laid out.

It seems like hybrid makes the most sense in 2022 but all streaming might be better in the near to medium future. And it will be the league’s job to figure out which is the right answer for whatever contract period it uses for media rights. The Big 12 in particular cannot really afford to get this decision wrong.

Love the term hybrid. My point was that every network is essentially a hybrid at this point so the battle between hybrid and pure streaming is kinda non existent.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

This isn't an either or. USC & Washington can maintain their strong academic traditions and still play Mississippi, Alabama or Georgia in football.

Using your logic- does playing Michigan State hurt Northwestern's academic reputation? Does Stanford playing Arizona State hurt Stanford? Of course not in both cases. Also, its not like USC or Washington would depart the Pac12 in isolation. I'd bet that 4-6 Pac12 teams would depart together.

Lastly, demographics in our country are changing. People moving from northern states to southern states. As more people move to SEC & Pac12 states- those universities will continue to bump up in national rankings.

It’s not that it hurts their academic reputation it’s just that USC/Washington would want as little affiliation as possible with many of the schools in the SEC and that isn’t even counting political reasons. Also while demographics have been shifting south that is expected to revert in the next decade or two as people need cooler climates.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

For schools like USC and Washington their academic reputation means far more then the athletic programs. The athletics are just a drop in the bucket for these universities. I don’t know about Oregon but USC and Washington will never align with the SEC.

Many of us were saying the same thing about Texas until they announced that they were going to the SEC. Money has a strange way of making bedfellows out of people that normally would not be caught died with them.

The SEC package, with the addition of OU and UT will blow the B10 package out of the water, once both are in place.

 

[Gorm]

The only realistic way the Pac-12 falls apart is if the B1G takes some of them anyway so I agree that would leave the leftovers with the Big 12 as their likely best option. But The Alliance seems to have headed off a B1G poaching of USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon etc.

The only way? USC could go independent and the Big 10 could choose to not do nothing. The Pac-12 won't survive USC leaving.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

The only way? USC could go independent and the Big 10 could choose to not do nothing. The Pac-12 won't survive USC leaving.

Do you mean the B1G could choose to do nothing? I think the Pac-12 survives USC going indy if the other 11 schools remain. They would have a chance at prying away a Big 12 team (unlikely if USC left but plausible for Alliance and perceived academic prestige for KU), or they would have their pick of a MWC team, or they would just stick at 11. But they would survive much like the Big 12 has survived its defections.