I think with the high seeding, and the current bracket sweet 16/elite 8 is a realistic expectation.
They have to play well all game though, no more first half shooting/layup breakdowns.
NC Central should be a win. They don't pose any significant matchup problems for us, and Fred has shown he doesn't lose to teams where he has the matchup advantage. Expect Niang, Ejim, and Kane to feast inside. This isn't a lengthy athletic B12 defense we're playing against...
Providence/UNC: Don't know much about providence, other than they beat Creighton. Again I can't imagine they have great personnel matchups to beat us. UNC is a different story, need to keep McAdoo/Johnson off the glass and need Morris to shut down Paige. UNC goes as he goes, and if he can get shutdown I don't think UNC has the offense to keep up with us.
At that point we're likely playing UConn/St. Joes/Nova. I think we can own UConn, their offense is also run through basically one guy, and they go as Napier goes. I admitedly don't know much about the style/personnel of St. Joes/Nova so I can't make accurate assumptions about a possible matchup against them.
After that no matter what we're playing a quality team, so it's likely going to come down to the wire and who makes clutch plays.
Just my quick analysis.